Reuters

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Frontrunning: January 20





  • Oil slump rocks markets again in equity rout (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks on Brink of Bear Market as Oil Slides; Ruble Drops (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Slide on Oil Rout (WSJ)
  • Emerging Markets Roiled as Stock Selloff Surpasses Asian Crisis (BBG)
  • Rising Debt in Emerging Markets Poses Global Threat (WSJ)
  • China shares slip as oil slides, outweighing stimulus hopes (Reuters)
 
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China Wades Into Mid-East Melodrama As Xi Makes First Presidential Trip To Saudi Arabia, Iran





“They need Iran to avoid overreliance on Saudi Arabia, and they need Saudi Arabia to avoid overreliance on Iran. It’s all about diversifying risk. It’s less about picking winners and more about modern portfolio theory."

 
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Stocks Slump After Saudis Threaten Nukes Against "Nefarious" Iran





"While Iran claims its top foreign policy priority is friendship, its behavior shows the opposite is true. Iran is the single-most-belligerent-actor in the region, and its actions display both a commitment to regional hegemony and a deeply held view that conciliatory gestures signal weakness either on Iran’s part or on the part of its adversaries. Saudi Arabia will not allow Iran to undermine our security or the security of our allies. We will push back against attempts to do so."

 
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Frontrunning: January 19





  • Spot the common thread: China's growth hits quarter-century low, raising hopes of more stimulus (Reuters)
  • And here: China stocks climb on hopes for new economic stimulus (Reuters)
  • Welcome to the Crisis Economy, Where Tumult Reigns (WSJ)
  • IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil (BBG)
  • IEA Sees Iran's Return Intensifying Battle for Europe Oil Market (BBG)
  • China 2015 power, steel output drop for first time in decades (Reuters)
 
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Equities Soar, Oil Back Over $30 On Hopes For More Stimulus Following Disturbing Chinese Data





Last night's Chinese data deluge can only be classified with one word: bad. So if bad news was again bad news as many claim, both commodities (read oil), and US equity futures should be tumbling right now... but just the opposite is happening and in fact both Brent and WTI have already jumped over $30 this morning. This happens even as the IEA said this morning that global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,”  And yet this morning both commodities, global stocks and futures soaring? Simple: the following Bloomberg headline summarizes it: "Brent Rallies More Than $1 as China GDP Spurs Stimulus Bets," and where Brent goes, so goes risk, and the S&P.

 
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Gold Retains “Key Role Of A Major Diversifier” – Dr Gurdgiev





Gold retains a key role of a major diversifier in well-structured retail investment and pension portfolios ... core defensive and hedging properties vis-à-vis global currencies and fixed income, as well as oil and a range of other commodities.

 
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China's Housing Is Recovering, Just Ignore The 10 Billion Square Feet Of Vacant Housing





While prices in China's Tier 1 cities are soaring, let's put the country's vacant housing problem in context: China has some 13 million homes vacant - enough to house the families of several small countries . Actually, it's worse: Zhu Min, deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, recently admitted that China’s real estate bubble now manifests itself in 10. 7 billion square feet  (1 billion square meters) of unused housing! Min added that many housing stock go unused, and the market may see a significant price correction in the future, wiping out vast household wealth.

 
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Italian Banks Collapse, Short Sales Banned As Loan Loss Fears Mount





Italian bank stocks are crashing (with BMPS down 40% year-to-date) as Reuters reports that investors are growing increasingly nervous about how the sector will cope with lower interest rates and a 200 billion euro ($218 billion) pile of loans that are unlikely to be repaid. The broad banking sector is down 4% with stocks suspended, and in light of this bloodbath, Italian regulators have decided in their wisdom, to ban short-selling of some bank stocks (which has driven hedgers into the CDS market, spking BMPS credit risk).

 
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"Countdown To The End": EU Officials Say Europe Is "Going Down The Drain"





"We have until March, the summer maybe, for a European solution. Then Schengen goes down the drain. There is a big risk that Germany closes. From that, no Schengen ... There is a risk that February could start a countdown to the end."

 
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China's Top Stock Regulator Gives Up On "Immature" Market, Hands In Resgination





Xiao Gang, chairman of China's securities regulator, has offered to resign amid ongoing turmoil in the country's equity markets - turmoil which he says stems from "inexperienced investors, an imperfect trading system and inappropriate supervision mechanisms." 

 
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China Stocks, Credit Risk Worsen Despite "Short-Squeezed" Yuan Strength





On the heels of new reserve ratio regulations and the biggest strengthening in the Yuan fix in 4 weeks, offshore Yuan has strengthened notably (despite Chinese default/devaluation risk surging in the CDS markets). Chinese stocks are weaker in the early going but corporate bond yields continue to slide to new record lows as the "last bubble standing" stands ignorant of the risks around it.

 
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Cracks At The Core Of The Core





It is the “Core of the Core” that now concerns us the most. That is where Federal Reserve (and global central bank) policies have left their greatest mark. It is at the “Core of the Core” where momentous misperceptions and market mispricing have become deeply entrenched. It’s the “Core of the Core” that has attracted enormous amounts of “money” over recent years. It’s also here where I believe leverage has quietly been used most aggressively. Over recent years it became one massive Crowded Trade. Now the sophisticated players must contemplate beating the unsuspecting public to the exits.

 
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Iran Sanctions Lifted As Nuclear Deal Implemented, US Hostages Freed





 
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Pro-China Party Falls As Taiwan Elects First Female President In "Historic" Landslide Election





"Why has public opinion changed so much? How did our party misread public opinion? We failed. The Nationalist Party lost the elections. We didn't work hard enough."

 
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