We want to highlight today's absolute failure at investigative reporting, and the worst example of journalistic capture by the Federal Reserve that we have ever seen because at stake is the criminality, competence and corruption of that most important of organizations in modern society, the US Federal Reserve.
- WSJ urges Fed to blow uberest of all bubbles: Memo to Fed: Let the Economy Overheat (WSJ)
- Gunman at large after killing nine at black South Carolina church (Reuters)
- Nine Dead in Charleston Shooting Labeled a 'Hate Crime' (BBG)
- Hong Kong Votes Down Beijing-Backed Election Plan (WSJ)
- Greece Has Already Cost Investors $897 Billion This Year (BBG)
- Merkel Maintains Tough Stance on Greece as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
- Small U.S. frackers face extinction amid drilling drought (Reuters)
- Brian Williams to Stay at NBC, but Lester Holt Will Be Anchor (WSJ)
With data showing very little sign of the Q2 post-weather bounce that The Fed forecast, and markets quaking in their boots on every 'good' data print, The Fed remains cornered - desperate to hike (to regain some ammo) but needing to lie through their teeth in order to rationalize why...
- *FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR
- *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING `MODERATELY,' JOB GROWTH PICKED UP
- *FED REPEATS INTL DEVELOPMENTS TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
So the bottom line - The Fed has no idea still, is data-dependent (unless the data disagrees with them), and is now the world's plunge protection team. It seems the IMF's warnings have been ignored.
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2091, 10Y 2.387%, EUR 1.1260, Gold $1178
The algo reaction to "Greece is willing to make concessions," was a immediate vertical ramp higher... which was quickly obliterated when the humans read further that Greece "will not cut its existing pensions," thus meaning no deal is close as the EU demands just that. EURUSD has been weaker all morning...
The world is on the brink of the longest-lasting oil glut in at least three decades and OPEC’s quest for market share makes it almost unavoidable. Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. But as WolfStreet.com's Wolf Richter warns, if Iran and world powers reach an accord on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program by their June 30 deadline, we’ll be watching the most magnificent oil glut ever building up into next year.
- Greek central bank issues 'Grexit' warning if aid talks fail (Reuters)
- Kerry says 'patience wearing thin' on Syria's Assad (Reuters)
- Juncker accuses Athens of misleading Greek people (FT)
- Al Qaeda kills two Saudis accused of spying for America (Reuters)
- Hedge-Fund Bet Hits Pensions (WSJ)
- ‘Flash Crash’ Trader Navinder Sarao Worked With Fund Network Now Under Investigation (WSJ)
- 'Me? Rich?' U.S. presidential hopefuls play middle-class card (Reuters)
- You’ve Been Warned: Central Bankers Turning Less Market-Friendly (BBG)
A funny thing happened in the last year since China gave up on its hard-line reforms and folded back to stimulate by all means necessary... the financial economy soared and the real economy sunk. Iron Ore prices are near record lows and Rebar prices are at record lows as stocks spike.. and this should be no surprise since we were told by a rural Chinese chap recently that "making money in stocks is a lot easier than farmwork" or construction or real world activity.
In short, we have yet to see evidence that we are nearing a peak in oil production. On the contrary, agencies like EIA and IEA have predicted a stable increase in crude oil production for the next few years at least. But supplies may not be the only, or even the most important factor when analyzing the end of the oil era. The world is making progress at moving beyond oil. So instead of discussing Peak Oil in terms of supply, perhaps it is now more useful to analyze ‘Peak Demand’.
The Chinese foreign ministry is out with a statement indicating the country has nearly completed its construction projects in the South China Sea. While this could be viewed as a sign that China has effectively backed down, albeit on its own terms and at its discretion, that will likely come as no consolation to the US and its allies because even as China signaled an end to its dredging activities, it also implicitly admitted that it will continue to build military facilities on the islands.
What difference does it make? In yet another gross exposure of Hillary hypocrisy, The Guardian reports that the great savior of "everyday Americans", promising to fight for fairness for working Americans; She who proclaims $15 per hour minimum wage is fair for all, is in the midst of a 'hiring freeze' of paid organizing positions, forcing experienced grassroots campaign workers to offer their services for free, unpaid internships. Perhaps, a rephrasing of the campaign slogan should be "do as I say, not as I do."
As expected, earlier today the pro-ECB top European Union court found that Draghi's impromptu announcement of an OMT, which was basically the wrapping of his "whatever it takes" policy from 2012 to prevent the collapse of the Eurozone when peripheral bond yields were hitting daily records, was perfectly legal.
- Greek PM sticks to hard line as contagion hits euro zone bonds (Reuters)
- Greek Deadlock Has Leader Hoping for Miracle to Avoid Default (BBG)
- Greek Showdown Puts Merkel's Teflon Legacy at Risk (BBG)
- Greek standoff saps Europe, dollar swings ahead of Fed (Reuters)
- Allianz Increased Holdings of Greek Debt as Its Largest Investor (BBG)
- French Bonds Infected as Greek Crisis Swells Euro-Region Spreads (BBG)
- Statoil to cut 1,500 more jobs as savings drive intensifies (FT)
- UnitedHealth, Anthem Seek to Buy Smaller Rivals (WSJ)
- Five Million Reasons Why China Could Go to War (BBG)
Another day of constant Grexit chatter, and this time the futures are really starting to react as what was seen as mostly impossible for the past 4 months is now almost inevitable. The first tremors emerged when Greece announced it would not present a new proposal to the Eurogroup to unlock aid, relying instead on what has already been submitted and which the Troika said was inadequate. Then, confusing matters, a new GPO poll posted on Greece's Mega TV showed that increasingly more, or over 56% at last count, of Greece would prefer a "bad" deal with creditors than being kicked out of the Eurozone putting the future of Tsipras' cabine tin jeopardy. And then, hinting that the endgame is officially here, the FT reported that "Eurozone officials discuss holding emergency summit on Greece", suggesting a second Lehman weekend may be just around the corner.
The Russian Defense Ministry is out condemning NATO plans to store heavy weapons in Eastern Europe, calling it "the most aggressive step by the Pentagon and NATO" since the Cold War and conjuring up memories of a bygone bipolarity.
Despite weeks of reassurances and repetitions that Grexit is "contained" - it's not! Bond spreads for Portugal, Italy, and Spain are blowing out (now up 35-50bps in the last 2 days). While Draghi desperatly soaks up selling pressure, Spanish bond yields have surpassed US yields for the first time since October. But while bonds are turmoiling (Bunds/TSYS -5-7bps, everything else ugly), the real carnage is in Greece. Greek bank bonds are pushing to new record lows and the broad ASE is down over 13% from last week's exuberant surge when Greece was fixed again (based on a Reuters headline rumor).