Reverse Repo

Axiom: "Red Flags" Suggest China Credit Event Is "Closer Than It Appears"

The more recent red flags are among the most profound we’ve seen in years – in short, we agree with fresh observations made by some of the world’s most famous iron ore bears. Thus, while it is nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly when the credit bubble will definitively pop in China, a number of recent events, in our view, suggest the threat level is currently at red/severe

Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Headed For The Crapper?

It’s no secret the plumbers at the Fed are feverishly devising a way to unwind their $4.5 trillion balance sheet with officials claiming this will nary elicit an inkling of a disturbance in the markets they’ve coddled all these years. But one must wonder, at the timing, at the ostensive optics, if nothing else...Unless, that is, the motivations of shrinkage are less than magnanimous and dare one say, immoral.

China Manufacturing PMI Jumps To Five Year High

China's reflation story (on the back of a record amount of debt created last year) was put on display on Friday morning when both the Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to a level not seen since April 2012.

S&P Futures Fade Overnight Gains As Euro Slides; China Stumbles

Asian shares and oil are lower, European shares are little changed, and S&P futures are fractionally in the red after gaining for most of the overnight session, perhaps troubled by warnings by two Fed presidents who warned that markets and valuations appear frothy, and the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates more times than currently forecast.

Why China Unexpectedly Hiked Rates 10 Hours After The Fed

The PBOC stressed that its interbank rate hikes simply followed the market's development, thus are not "true" policy rate hikes. Nevertheless, it also listed four classical rate-hike reasons for the interbank rate changes: the economic recovery, rising inflation (particularly that of housing), strong credit growth and Fed's rate hikes.

Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs On "Dovish" Fed, Dutch Vote

World stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday while the dollar traded close to a one-month low after the Federal Reserve hiked U.S. interest rates but signaled no pick-up in the pace of tightening, while the Dutch elections were broadly interpreted as a drop in support for Europe's anti-establishment powers.

Crude Plunges Below $49, Dragging Markets Lower; All Eyes On Draghi

While trader attention will soon be focused on the ECB and any potential tightening hints from the central bank, a more pressing development as US traders walk in today, will be ongoing collapse in WTI, which after crashing 5.5% yesterday, has tumbled more than 2% this morning, sliding not only below $50 for the first time since December 1, but also dropped under $49, as a near record number of net long spec positions suddenly rushes to unwind their exposure.

Stocks Mixed As Treasuries Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since 2012, Dollar Pops Ahead Of ADP

Asian markets dropped following disappointing China trade and Japan GDP data, while European stocks rebounded for the first time in five sessions led by miners and banks. US futures were little changed with a strong dollar pressuring oil below $53; sterling slid for the eighth day out of nine before the chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget. Treasuries are headed for their longest losing streak since 2012 ahead of a 10Y U.S. debt auction, and today's ADP private payrolls report.

Global Stocks Hit 21 Month Highs, Futures Point To New Record Ahead Of Inflation Data

The global "risk on" melt-up continues. After a modestly hawkish Yellen warned that every meeting is live, and refused to take March off the table, sending the dollar and yield higher and the S&P to fresh record highs, world stocks rose hitting a 21-month high on Wednesday with the dollar rising for the 11th straight day, the longest positive streak since July 2015.

RBC's Story Of The Day: "Reflation Trade Back On With A Vengeance"

For now, the market reaction is ‘higher real rates’ = ‘higher USD’ as Trump pro-growth and protectionist policies (BAT, overseas USD repatriation, tariffs) looks certain to create further Dollar strength, despite the incremental ‘weak USD’ jawboning from the administration.  Nominal rates have held in a range with real rates are again grinding higher.

Frontrunning: February 13

  • 'Trump trades' on boost to economic growth come back with a bang (Reuters)
  • Trump's national security adviser Flynn trying to survive crisis (Reuters)
  • White House Is Sifting Options on Immigration Ban (WSJ)
  • North Korean Nuclear Ambitions to Be Defining Issue for Trump (BBG)
  • Netanyahu opposes Palestinian state, Israeli minister says ahead of U.S. visit (Reuters)
  • Speed Limits on Trump’s Infrastructure Drive: Federal Laws, Rare Species and Nimbys (WSJ)

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Futures Make New Record Highs As "Trump Trade" Euphoria Returns

European and Asian stocks, S&P futures, bond yields, the dollar and commodity metals are rose, in some cases making new all time highs, lifted by the latest reemergence of the "Trump trades" as hopeful investors once again bet that the U.S. president's tax reform plans will boost economic growth and corporate profits, despite another warning from Goldman that the president's fiscal plan is about to be derailed.