Richmond Fed

Goldman: The Fed Will Hike But Here Are "The Two Most Interesting Questions"

While conceding that a hike is guaranteed, Goldman notes that two issues should make this week's FOMC meeting particularly interesting. First, will Fed officials alter their policy views in response to the increasingly different signals that both sides of the mandate are sending about the urgency of further tightening? Second, will the press conference provide some clarity on what the next tightening step following the June hike will be?

Key Events In The Coming Week: Thursday Turmoil Trifecta

This week will be all about rhe "Thursday Turmoil Trifecta" when the UK general election will be highlight of a busy week together with the ECB monetary policy meeting, while rounding off events in the US will be James Comey's first public testimony since he was fired by Donald Trump in which he is expected to testify that Trump pressured him to end the Russian probe into Mike Flynn.

May Payrolls Preview: The Tiebreaker

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, the May payrolls report due at 8:30am on Friday will be the tiebreaker, not only for the current state of the economy where both soft and hard data have been deteriorating in recent weeks, but perhaps also for the June rate hike decision, which as the Fed noted in its May FOMC minutes, may not take place without "evidence" that the recent "transitory weakness" in the economy is over.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US Payrolls; Eurozone Inflation And Fed Speakers

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. On Monday, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.

Can The US Economy Ever Get Back To 3% GDP Growth?

It is really about reasserting the preeminence of humans – the workforce – in any calculus of macroeconomic policy. Make them (us, really) more productive, and the economy will grow faster. And if that is impossible, and with it that 3% target, then technology will replace the worker rather than simply augment his or her efforts.

China Downgrade Forgotten As Asia Closes Higher, Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Not even last night's Moody's credit downgrade of China - the first since 1989 - could dent the global stock rally which has pushed global stock prices to all time highs. After initially sliding, regional stocks and emerging Asian currencies pared early losses following the unexpected downgrade of China, taking their cue from the "sudden reversal" of the Shanghai Composite Index, which some speculated saw the latest intervention of the "national team."

S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump's SPR Sale Plans

S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe's recovery remains on track, with the German Ifo business confidence printing at the highest level on record, and hinting at a GDP print in the 5% range.

Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Friday. The minutes of the May FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week

April Payrolls Preview: "It Better Be Good"

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

Are Fed Officials Throwing Main Street Under The Bus?

Wall Streeters have the Fed standing behind them... promising to catch them if they fall and giving them privileged information. But who do Americans have looking out for them? Apparently, nobody but themselves!