Richmond Fed

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Key Events In The Coming "Payrolls" Week





After last week's relatively quiet, on macro data if not central bank news, week the newsflow picks up with the usual global PMI survey to start, and end the week with the US January payrolls report.

 
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Futures Slide On Apple Disappointment, Oil Slumps Ahead Of Fed Decision





"Nobody is really sure where we go from here, and nobody is brave enough to make the call,” Peter Dixon, Commerzbank AG’s global equities economist in London told Bloomberg. “Corporate earnings season won’t provide much of a support - markets may find a floor if the Fed is extremely dovish tonight. At least investors will have time to think and reassess valuations."

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week: Fed, BOJ And More





Following a rerun of September 2015, when Draghi sent market expectations about ECB action sky-high only to massively disappoint in December (we will have to wait until March to see if it is deja vu all over again) last week, this week is just as big for central bank jawboning with the FOMC (Wednesday) and the BoJ meeting on Friday, with hopes that they will at least hint of more easing if not actually do much.

 
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Futures Rise, Drop, Then Rise Again In Illiquid Session After China Promises More Stimulus





It has been a seesaw session with U.S. stock index futures following their dramatic buying burst in the last half hour of market trading yesterday by first rising, then falling, then rising again alongside European equities both driven almost tick for tick with even the smallest move in the carry trade of choice, the USDJPY, even as Asian shares trade near intraday highs after China’s leaders signaled they will take further steps to support growth.

 
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Futures Jump After Friday Drubbing, Despite Brent Sliding To Fresh 11 Year Lows, Spanish Political Uncertainty





In a weekend of very little macro newsflow facilitated by the release of the latest Star Wars sequel, the biggest political and economic event was the Spanish general election which confirmed the end of the PP-PSOE political duopoly at national level.  As a result, there was some early underperformance in SPGBs and initial equity weakness across European stocks, which however was promptly offset and at last check the Stoxx 600 was up 0.4% to 363, with US equity futures up nearly 1% after Friday's oversold drubbing. In other key news, the commodity slide continues with Brent Oil dropping to a fresh 11-year low as futures fell as much as 2.2% in London after a 2.8% drop last week.

 
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The Complete Fed Decision Preview: All You Need To Know





At 2 p.m. EST, the only thing the financial world will care about and discuss will be the Fed's [first rate hike in 9 years|epic disappointment]. So for those who still haven't made up their mind about what the Fed's [dovish|non-dovish] rate hike means, here is all you need to know.

 
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10 Investor Warning Signs For 2016





Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

 
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JPMorgan Warns Of "Eye-Catching" 76% Probability Of Recession





Just days ago Citi pronounced, much to the chagrin of the status-quo-hugging Fed faithful, that given the turn in corporate profits (and concerns over margin sustainability) that the chance of a recession in the US had risen to 65% (and on that basis had a bearish outlook for US equities). Now, as other major sell-side shops jump on the equity un-bullish narrative, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli warns that in the past, a low unemployment rate, rising compensation, falling margins, and elevated durables investment have historically signaled an elevated risk that an expansion is nearing its end... and puts the probability of a US recession within 3 years at 76%. Of course, you do not need to worry, because Janet Yellen said this is not true (though failed to provide here reasoning).

 
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Global Stocks Rebound As Geopolitical Tensions Subside; Europe Surges On Report Of More ECB Easing





Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.

 
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9 Regional Feds Pushed For Discount Rate Hike In October





In July it was 5, then in October the number rose to 8, and moments ago we learned that during the meetings on October 15 and 22, a total of nine regional Feds had asked to increase the Fed's discount rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, with Boston joining the St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland, Dallas, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Richmond Fed. Two banks, the Chicago and NY Fed wanted to keep rates at 0.75%, while the domain of Fed's uber dove Kocherlakota, the Minneapolis Fed where former Goldmanite Neel Kashkari will soon operate, asked for a Discount Rate cut to 0.50%.

 
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Richmond Fed Shows 3rd Monthly Decline As Wages Crash Most In 4 Years





A collapse in new orders and the order backlog combined with a plunge in wages, average workweek, and number of employees has left the Richmond Fed contracting for the 3rd month in a row. The last three times this happened, The US was either in recession or The Fed unleashed QE3.

 
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Global Stocks Slide, Futures Drop After Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane





It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

 
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Key Economic Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week





It may be a holiday shortened week in the US with Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales on deck (some of which may be starting as soon as Wednesday) but there is a lot of macro data to digest in the next few days.

 
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