Richmond Fed

Futures Fail To Rebound As Deutsche Bank Tries To Comfort Markets That It Is "Fine"

After yesterday's "Hillary rally" in the US, the overnight's session has seen more risk-on sentiment as European stocks advanced, ignoring weakness in Asia as investors followed every twist of shares of beleaguered lender Deutsche Bank, whose CEO last night assured Bill readers that the bank is not seeking a bailout, which however was contradicted by a Zeit article this morning reporting that Germany may seek as much as s 25% "bailout" stake in a worst case scenario.

Richmond Fed Disappoints: Employee Head Count Crashes To 7-Year Lows

It would appear the people who The Conference Board were asking about their 'confidence' were not from the Richmond fed region. A 3rd massive contraction in the last 4 months was not the worst of it as the "number of employees" subindex crashed to -13 - its lowest since June 2009.

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Payrolls Preview: Brace For Disappointment (But Expect The Fed To Shrug It Off)

August Non-farm Payrolls have been weaker than consensus expectations in each of the last 5 years and in 14 of the last 18 years of available data. However, with all eyes focused on how Janet will see it, Goldman notes that it is possible that Fed officials would look through moderate weakness given 1) the strength of the June/July payroll gain, 2) their sub-100k estimate of the “breakeven” payroll gain, and 3) the well-publicized tendency for weak first prints in August.

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.

S&P Set For New Record Highs As Futures, Dollar Rise; Oil Slides

In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.

8 Of 12 Regional Feds Voted To Hike Discount Rate In July, One Shy Of The 9 Last November

This means that as of a month ago, two thirds of all regional Feds were urging Yellen to hike the discount rate; they were the following: Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Richmond, San Francisco and St. Louis. Those who voted to keep discount rate at 1% cited argument that outlook and below-target inflation supported keeping current accommodation in place; banks were Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, and especially the New York. Clearly they dominated the discussion.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses By Most On Record

Following flash PMI's drop, another early August indicator has collapsed as Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey plunges to -11 (lowest since Jan 2013) missing expectations of +6. The plunge from July's +10 to August's -11 is the largest on record - back to 1993.

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.