Risk Based Capital

Volatility Is The Square Root Of Time & Fat Tails

The trio of macro-prudential policy, the onset and evolution of shadow banking, and the nebulous concept of financial stability may have become a toxic cocktail which can be instrumental in moving forward the Federal Reserve’s timeline for lift-off zero bound rates.  The intuition here is stooped in concepts of volatility and how market structure evolution may contribute or detract from asset volatility. Volatility is the square root of time. Financial repression times time equals volatility. Financial repression and/or macro-prudential policy times time equals the inverse of financial stability. Financial stability inverted equals volatility squared.

Frontrunning: March 6

  • 5 Things to Watch in February’s Jobs Report (WSJ)
  • Draghi Declares Victory for Bond-Buying Before It Starts (BBG)
  • Apple Pay Sign-Ups Get Tougher as Banks Respond to Fraud (WSJ)
  • As World’s Hottest Economy Unravels, Nigerians Feel the Squeeze (BBG)
  • EU discontent over French budget deal's 'political bazaar' (Reuters)
  • Foreign Takeovers See U.S. Losing Tax Revenue (WSJ)
  • Goldman Shareholders’ Hope for Bigger Payout Dashed by Fed (BBG)
  • Europe Stocks Headed for 31% Surge This Year Amid QE, Citi Says (BBG)
  • Dollar revs up for jobs data, euro bonds rally on ECB (Reuters)
Reggie Middleton's picture

Not many websites, analysts or authors have both the balls/temerity & the analytical honesty to take Goldman on. Well, I say.... Let's dance! This isn't a collection of soundbites from the MSM. This is truly meaty, hard hitting analysis for the big boys and girls. If you're easily offended or need the 6 second preview I suggest you move on.

Reggie Middleton's picture

Lauren Lyster, the enticing Russian TV/Capital Accounts host gave me the rare opportunity yesterday to sit down & run my mouth for 15 minutes straight. This format's most conducive to true conveyance of knowledge and information, at least in my not very humble opinion. I'm just not the 8 second soundbite type. Plus, I'm sure I pissed many long-only guys off...

Reggie Middleton's picture

How will GS put a real hedge, a counterparty risk mitigating prophylactic if you will, over that big green stalk that is representative of Total Credit Exposure to Risk Based Capital? Short answer, Goldman may very well be to big for a counterparty condom. You pretty, brand name Goldman counterparties out there (and yes, there are a lot of y'all - GS really gets around), expect to get burned at the culmination of that French banking party I've been talking about for the last few quarters.