Risk Premium

The Global Commodity Cycle: Where Are We Now

"In commodity cycles, demand leads and supply reacts, with a lag. And the factor which facilitates this process is price. 2017 looks to be providing another classic example of this simple commodity rule."

Animal Spirits Are A Late-Stage Event

“While the temptations are great, and the pressures strong, illusions in numbers are only that - ephemeral, and ultimately self-destructive.

A Stunned Wall Street Reacts To UK's Hung Parliament

It was supposed be a UK general election that solidified Conservative dominance, and boosted Brexit leverage. It ended up being the opposite, after British voters delivered a stinging rebuke to Prime Minister Theresa May and her ruling Conservative party, depriving her of a majority, resulting in a "hung parliament" and thrusting the country back into a new period of uncertainty as it prepares to depart from the European Union.

BofA: "If Bonds Are Right, Stocks Will Drop Up To 20%"

"If the bond markets are right and growth slows, then we think earnings growth would likely return to the path seen in recent years. If we fade earnings growth back to zero in 2018/19 and keep markets on current 2018 multiples, we find 13% downside potential for equity markets."

Do Low Rates Really Justify Higher Valuations?

Do low-interest rates justify high valuations? History suggests not. It is likely a trap which will once again leave investors with the four “B’s” following the next recession – Beaten, Battered, Bruised and Broke.

It's Different This Time...

Throughout history, financial bubbles have only been recognized in hindsight when their existence becomes “apparently obvious” to everyone. Of course, by that point is was far too late to be of any use to investors and the subsequent destruction of invested capital. This time will not be different. Only the catalyst, magnitude, and duration will be.

A Delighted Wall Street Reacts To The French Election

With European stocks on fire, and US futures moving fast to recoup recent all time highs, it is no surprise that Wall Street is feeling particularly bullish this morning. Below is a sample of slleside analyst reaction to Sunday's outcome.