Risk Premium

Forget Italy, Turkey Is The Main Course

While investors are focused on Italy, Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore warns that another Mediterranean country is poised to grab their attention very soon. A currency crisis in Turkey is rapidly deteriorating, setting the stage for dramatic and unscheduled central bank action.

Goldman's Bear Case In 7 Steps: "We Are In The 98th Percentile Of Historical Valuations"

"S&P 500 valuation is stretched relative to history on nearly every fundamental metric. At the aggregate level, the S&P 500 index trades at the 85th percentile of historical valuation relative to the past 40 years. For portfolio managers, the more important fact is that the median S&P 500 company trades at the 98th percentile of historical valuation."

Goldman Raises S&P Target To 2,400 On "Trump Hope"

"Hope" will dominate through 1Q 2017 as S&P 500 climbs by 9% to 2400 according to a just released revised forecast by Goldman Sachs. The firm adds that "instead of our baseline adjusted EPS growth of 5% to $123, growth could accelerate to 11% and reach $130, which would support a P/E multiple above 18x." However, Goldman warns that "Fear" is likely to pervade during 2H and S&P 500 will end 2017 at 2300, roughly 5% above the current level.

How Far Can Bond Yields Rise Before Hurting Equities? Goldman Answers

"... we believe that the equity market is still at a level that can cope with moderately rising bond yields. We estimate that a rise in US bond yields above 2.75% or probably between 0.75-1% in Germany would create a more serious problem for equity markets: at that point we would expect that any further rises in yields from there would be a negative for stock returns." - Goldman Sachs

Goldman Reveals Its Top Trade Recommendations For 2017

  • Top Trade #1: Long US$ vs GBP and EUR
  • Top Trade #2: RMB weakening: Long $/CNY
  • Top Trade #3: Long BRL, RUB, INR and ZAR, short KRW and SGD
  • Top Trade #4: Long Brazil, India and Poland, FX un-hedged
  • Top Trade #5: Long 10-year US$ and EUR inflation
  • Top Trade #6: Long EURO STOXX 50 2018 dividends

Goldman Warns Of "One Of The Largest VIX Dislocations On Record"

The VIX has increased on nine consecutive sessions, a new record; and the term structure of SPX implied volatility is now steeply inverted, pricing in a potential wide swing over election week. However, as Goldman Sachs notes, although the VIX is up, the market hasn’t actually been moving that much and that has led to one of the largest VIX dislocations on record. In fact, VIX has overshot its typical beta to the SPX by 5 vol points.

Unexpected Chart Of The Day: USA Default Risk Tumbles As Trump Gains

While every establishment politician and mainstream media pundit has proclaimed the end of the world as we know it if Donald Trump were to win next week, it appears - perhaps throwing off the narrative of exactly who is the "most dangerous" candidate - that the risk of the US Dollar has dropped along with Trump's resurgence...

VIX Hedges Building Fast After Scare-less October

Octobers are supposed to be the scary, and not only because of Halloween. Market observers like to point out how much more volatile October is relative to other months. Not so in 2016 as Goldman notes this was the 4th lowest average VIX since records began. However, the last few days have seen hedgers extremely active ahead of next week's election (despite one of the lowest levels of S&P 500 realized volatility recorded).

BOE's Carney May Announce Decision To Step Down This Week

According to several British newspaper, including The Times and Mail Online, Mark Carney’s "self-imposed deadline" for declaring whether he will stay in office beyond 2018 is fast approaching, and the central banker may decide to step down as soon as next week. The 51-year old Canadian may announce his decision "within days" at his next scheduled public appearance on Thursday.

Global Stocks, US Futures Modestly Higher As Debate Digested, Draghi Eyed

Global stocks were modestly higher, before the European Central Bank gives its policy update, while investors weigh mixed earnings results. Asian stocks rise, U.S. equity-index futures are little changed.  The euro touched its weakest level since July and stocks in the region fell after their first back-to-back gains in two weeks.