Robert Shiller

The Bubble That Could Break The World

The key to bubble analysis is to look at what’s causing the bubble. If you get the hidden dynamics right, your ability to collect huge profits or avoid losses is greatly improved. Based on data going back to the 1929 crash, this current bubble looks like a particular kind that can produce large, sudden losses for investors. The market right now is especially susceptible to a sharp correction, or worse.

Sell In May – Myth Or Reality?

A willful disregard of “risk” will inherently lead to the destruction of the two most precious and finite assets that all investors possess – capital and time. Just something to consider when the media tells you to ignore history and suggests “this time may be different.” That is usually just about the time when it isn’t.

Shiller's CAPE – Is There A Better Measure?

Currently, valuation measures are clearly warning the future market returns are going to be substantially lower than they have been over the past eight years. Therefore, if you are expecting the markets to crank out 10% annualized returns over the next 10 years for you to meet your retirement goals, it is likely that you are going to be very disappointed.

5 Charts That Scream "This Is It"

With the stunning run-up in markets since 2009, investors can’t reasonably expect returns to continue at double the long-term average. At a time of exuberance, it’s important to remember markets are cyclical. The other takeaway from today’s valuations is that when the drawdown does come, it will be severe.

Frontrunning: March 14

  • U.S. East Coast Braces for Late-Winter Blizzard (WSJ)
  • U.S. Blizzard Grounds Flights, Raises Power as Trump Tweets (BBG)
  • Debt Ceiling Fight May Be Too Tempting for Trump to Pass Up (BBG)
  • Russia appears to deploy forces in Egypt, eyes on Libya role (Reuters)
  • EU headscarf ban ruling sparks faith group backlash (Reuters)