Robert Shiller

7 Myths Of Investing

"There are no sidelines. Those saying this seem to envision a seller of stocks moving her money to cash and awaiting a chance to return. But they always ignore that this seller sold to somebody, who presumably moved a precisely equal amount of cash off the sidelines."

Valuations: It Is Different This Time

"Stock investors have been waiting on the Godot of growth for most of this century and one can’t help but wonder at what point they’ll get up and leave the theater..."

The Bubble That Could Break The World

The key to bubble analysis is to look at what’s causing the bubble. If you get the hidden dynamics right, your ability to collect huge profits or avoid losses is greatly improved. Based on data going back to the 1929 crash, this current bubble looks like a particular kind that can produce large, sudden losses for investors. The market right now is especially susceptible to a sharp correction, or worse.

Sell In May – Myth Or Reality?

A willful disregard of “risk” will inherently lead to the destruction of the two most precious and finite assets that all investors possess – capital and time. Just something to consider when the media tells you to ignore history and suggests “this time may be different.” That is usually just about the time when it isn’t.

Shiller's CAPE – Is There A Better Measure?

Currently, valuation measures are clearly warning the future market returns are going to be substantially lower than they have been over the past eight years. Therefore, if you are expecting the markets to crank out 10% annualized returns over the next 10 years for you to meet your retirement goals, it is likely that you are going to be very disappointed.