The “bullish case” is currently built primarily on “hope.” Hope the economy will improve in the second half of the year; Hope that earnings will improve in the second half of the year; Hope that oil prices will trade higher even as supply remains elevated; Hope the Fed will not raise interest rates this year; Hope that global Central Banks will “keep on keepin’ on.” Hope that the US Dollar doesn’t rise; Hope that interest rates remain low; Hope that high-yield credit markets remain stable.
Has something gone wrong? Absolutely.
"It takes someone who has experienced socialism’s failures firsthand to see why Sen. Sanders is succeeding: We elders, immigrants and native-born alike, have failed to teach our children and grandchildren about the economic history and false promises of the myriad forms of socialism that infest our world."
The ongoing feud between Puerto Rico and its mostly hedge fund creditors is promptly shaping up as the next "Argentina", where "vulture investors" may well end up holding the island commonwealth hostage for years, during which time, however, they won't get paid. This is shaping up as the latest development in the saga in which earlier today Puerto Rico’s Senate approved a bill calling for a moratorium on a wide range of debt payments, including general-obligation bonds, through January 2017 in what Bloomberg dubbed "the latest escalation of the Caribbean island’s fiscal crisis."
With volume declining on the rally as short-covering fades, the thrust of Central Bank actions now behind us, the focus will once again turn to the economic and fundamental data. From that standpoint, the “bears” remain firm in the commitments. With profit margins and earnings on the decline, economic data weak and interest rates hovering near lows, there is little support for an ongoing bull rally.
The issue of decentralization is one of the most important discussions of our time and understanding this is so utterly crucial to your personal wealth.
Several decades ago, Saul Bellow wrote this: "For the first time in history, the human species as a whole has gone into politics. Everyone is in the act, and there is no telling what may come of it." At this point, however, we can say what has come of it: failure. Politics has failed to deliver on nearly every promise it has made since the 1960s, and we think it’s time to hold it to account.
The mispricing of assets across world markets has reached epidemic proportions.
"We have come to the point in Japanese monetary policy—and soon perhaps in the West—where it is hard to tell sense from nonsense."
"A good player knows when to pick up his marbles..."
"The preservation of an insolvent currency system requires that the owners of currency have no way to protect it..."
“Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be forced to either acknowledge labor market tightening as reason to continue with the four-hike schedule for 2016 or risk her credibility, belittle job market stability and sound a warning about the risks of lower oil prices and cheap gasoline (sacrilege to regular Americans) by slowing the hiking pace after a single 0.25 percent increase last month. If she gets it wrong, things could get ugly fast."
by a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens
In the world of fiction, the most famous threshold may be that of 88 miles per hour. In the non-fictional world of economics and finance, however, an even more important threshold is that of 5% unemployment. At that moment everything changes. Wall Street's most prominent former converted permabull, Jim Paulsen, explains.