Rosenberg

Bloomberg Tries To Make Sense Of The Market In Hundreds Of Pretty Charts, Fails

From Bloomberg's Michael Rosenberg: "U.S. bond yields are presently priced for an anemic economic recovery,
consistent with U.S. nominal GDP growth averaging around 3% for the
next two years, which is nowhere near the 5% projected by
private-sector economists and the FOMC. Something has to give here.
Either forecasters will need to revise their forecasts lower, or U.S.
bond yields are at risk of moving sharply higher.
All of this suggests that greater caution on the part of investors is
warranted. Indeed, in a world where market expectations are not firmly
anchored and where the economic outlook is “unusually uncertain”, a
defensive posture appears to be the prudent course from here on." In other bizarro words, buy stocks. Below is July's Financial Conditions Watch in which yet another person tries to make sense of what is now a completely irrational and busted market. (and yes, the pageview flipping presentations that some of our competitors will make out of this document will be simply mindboggling)

Top 10 Most Read Posts In The Past Week

These are the Top 10 most read posts of the prior week:

  1. Marc Faber: Relax, This Will Hurt A Lot
  2. Ever Wondered How You Know You Are In A Depression? David Rosenberg Explains
  3. Guest Post: Gold Swap Signals the Roadmap Ahead
  4. "It's Not A Market, It's An HFT 'Crop Circle' Crime Scene" - Further Evidence Of Quote Stuffing Manipulation By HFT
  5. Jim Rickards Compares The Collapse Of The Roman Empire To The US, Concludes That We Are Far Worse Off
  6. LBMA Closes Off Public Access To Key Bullion Bank Trading Data
  7. S&P Priced In Gold: Comparison Between The Great Depression And Now
  8. Warren Pollock Warns Of Emergency Drug Shortage As EMTs Told To Go To "Alternate Protocols"
  9. China Calls Our Bluff: "The US is Insolvent and Faces Bankruptcy as a Pure Debtor Nation but [U.S.] Rating Agencies Still Give it High Rankings"
  10. Already Bought A 3D LCD In Anticipation Of QE "Instarefi" 1.999? You May Want To Consider A Refund

 

Bull/Bear Weekly Recap

A concise and objective summary of the week's bullish and bearish events

Ten Things That Would Turn Rosie Bullish, And A Realistic Read On Today's GDP Data

One of the world's most realistic people (which for some reason the permabulls take as an indication of extreme bearishness: which is fine - after all they themselves live in an imaginary world populated with market marking unicorns and benign computer programs), David Rosenberg has shared ten things that would make him bullish. Alas reading through these gives one the impression that Hades would first turn endothermic before any of these actually were to come true. And for some more practical views from Rosie, we also include his spot on interpretation of today's GDP data.

Econophile's picture

While I tremendously respect David Rosenberg, his article on Wednesday on inflation and deflation is a confusing mishmash of Keynesian ideas which are clearly wrong. But in the end, despite his struggle with concepts, he may have the market timing right.

David Rosenberg On What Happens When The Glorious 30 Year Great Bull Market In Bonds Comes To An End

From David Rosenberg's Wednesday letter: "The primary purpose of this comment is to suggest what things may look like when the Great Bull Market in Bonds, which began in 1981 with 30-year Treasury Bonds yielding 15.25%, finally comes to its glorious end. For starters, I think it is safe to say that the bull market in bonds will end reasonably close to the point in time that inflation (or deflation) bottoms. This is because we have determined that by far the major economic factor that correlates consistently with the direction of market-determined interest rates, at least for long term Treasury Bonds, is CPI Inflation (headline and core)...So what will be the cause of the next secular uptrend in inflation or hyperinflationary shock? It pays to look back at history. Prior to the inflation of the 1970s-early 1980s, periods of very high inflation were primarily associated with war. Increased credit demands to fund the war effort combined with the drop in productivity that goes along with blowing everything up is an inflationary stew." Alas, never before in the history of US society have we been at the point when noted economists, financiers, and socialites so frequently and openly compare the fate of our society to that of the Roman empire in its last days, when the Roman emperors, oblivious of personal harm, would debase the currency on a daily basis, and hike taxes, with the end result being the collapse of the empire itself. As we will demonstrate shortly, we ourselves may be getting quite close. And in those uncharted waters of the global economy and, in fact, civilization as a whole, where the central bankers fight for the very survival of the status quo on a daily basis, we are confident that prudence on long bond and inflation rates will be first to be jettisoned as the kleptocratic oligarchy fights to avoid the pitchforks and guillotines for at least one more day.

Rosenberg: Fade The Volumeless Rally As "The Market Is Completely Unprepared For 500K Claims And Sub 50 ISM"

Rosie's market commentary from today is quite colorful, taking on both Barton Biggs (why bother) and Richard Russell as inflection point contrarians (we fully expect Barton Biggs who has now generated enough commissions for his broker to kill his entire P&L for the decade, to go bearish in about two weeks in keeping with his latest standing wave oscillation from one extreme to another). Rosie discusses a topic near and dear, namely that bonds continue to not buy the equity rally, and that the market is really not only stupid and inefficient, but wrong and overshooting most of the time. The only question is for how long can it remain wrong. And courtesy of the Fed, the answer is long, long, long. Not surprisingly David ridicules the constant lack of volume to the upside, and concludes that the rally should be faded, and that "this market is completely unprepared for 500k claims and sub-50 ISM." Obviously, he expects both to occur shortly (and just in time for Shiller to say he believe the chance of a double dip is more than 50%).

David Rosenberg Looks At The Sugar High Light... And Picks The Dark

Whereas Alphaville presents several statutory observations by David Rosenberg as to a variety of reasons over which one "could" be bullishly inclined based on a goal seeked read of the data (if one so chose), his daily letter is once again capped with yet another bearish summation: the bad news more than drowns out all the positivity, even if that means that another double dip is practically priced in.

ECRI Leading Indicator Breaches Critical -10 Threshold, Hits -10.5

If in addition to 85% of the economic data releases in the past month coming below expectations was not enough, the ECRI leading indicator has just came below the critical threshold of -10%, which according to Rosenberg has virtually assured recessions based on data from the past 50 or so years, hitting an annualized rate of -10.5%. And since even the index creators (and Ivy League tenured professors) are openly refuting the adverse implications of their own index (when they, and everyone were praising it when it topped out at 27.80 a year ago), one can be sure this is a rather dramatic data point.

Q&A With David Rosenberg: The Bearish Outlook

The WSJ's Greg Zuckerman has published a Q&A with one of the world's biggest deflationists (who nonetheless admits that once QE 2 begins all bets are off): David Rosenberg. Here is how Rosie sees the world of finance over next 2 years, and provdes more color on his currently favorite investment strategy (aside from bonds): SIRP (Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price... and in keeping with acronyms RIP GARP).

Rosenberg On The Specifics Of The ECRI Leading Index As An Investment Tool

We have been observing the recent collapse of the ECRI index in all its glory over the past several months. As we have discussed previously, this is one of David Rosenberg's preferred leading indicators. Below we present some of his summary observations on the four distinct cycle in the ECRI index, with an emphasis on the current one, which as Rosie highlights is Phase IV - Recession (Zero to Trough), in which the S&P drops by 6.4%, and the worst performing assets are consumer discretionary, industrials and tech, contrary to what has been performing the best over the past six months. Time for some sector rotation.