Rosenberg

Weekly Chartology; Goldman Introduces Its Own Version Of Rosenberg's SIRP For A Low GDP Growth Environment

In a surprising act of lucidity, David Kostin recently reduced his 2010 S&P target from 1,250 to 1,200. Now, the Goldman strategist has penned his own version of David Rosenberg's SIRP (Safety and Income at A Reasonable Price), by introducing two strategies for a low GDP environment: Low Operating Leverage And Dividend Growth (LOL-DG - yes, we prefer Rosenberg's acronym).Hopefully, this means that the GARP abortion is finally dead and buried.

Rosenberg Interview: "If You Don't Believe In A Double Dip, It's Because The First Recession Never Ended"

Sick and tired of CNBC "interviews" in which the speaker is given 15 seconds inbetween commercials to explain why the economy is in the toilet, before another talking head from the dodecabox appears and starts spouting painfully ridiculous things? So are we. Which is why we refuse to link to David Rosenberg's earlier presence on CNBC, and instead we present Rosie's following 26 minute interview with the WSJ which is a must watch for all who want to listen to exiled Merrill Lyncher express a coherent realistic thought before some CNBC associate producer screams "cut to commercial for incontinence pills." And, true to form, Rosie starts off in style: "If you don't believe there's going to be a double dip, it's because the first recession never ended. If there is going to be a double dip, the odds are certainly higher than 50-50." For those who follow Rosie's daily letters via Gluskin Sheff (which would be all of our readers), the insights won't be particularly new, but it is always great to hear a rational and sensible human discuss things as he sees them, not as his trading book demands he sees them.

Is A Market Crash Coming? The WSJ Ponders...

In a unorthodox piece by the WSJ, which goes direct to discussing some of the less than pleasant possible outcomes of central planning, Brett Arends asks "could Wall Street be about to crash again? This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder" and says: "way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out." And without further ado...

David Rosenberg Vindicated

...And proud of it. He also provides his latest investment basket recommendation: "So, while I continue to advocate underweight positions in equities, a bar bell between basic materials and defensive dividend stocks is a prudent strategy, with the overall emphasis in the asset mix tilted towards bonds, especially the BB sliver or that part of the higher quality non-investment grade space that currently has the greatest unexploited potential for spread compression and capital gains."

Fed's Total 2-10 Year UST Monetization Over Next 12 Months: $340 Billion

BofA's Jeffrey Rosenberg provides the breakdown of the total amount of securities that roll off (MBS, Agency and USTs) over the next 12 months: the total is $340 billion, including the $230 billion (and possibly more) in MBS. Alas, this means that on a straight line monthly basis (and the finally outcome will likely be far more jagged), there will be on average just under $30 billion a month in incremental 2-10 Year Treasury Purchases. As Joseph Abate said earlier, this is not nearly enough to be considered a new stimulus, and at best seeks to retain the status quo. What is notable is that BofA believes today's action should have been priced into the market. Judging by the kneejerk reaction in stocks and bonds, the reality is anything but.

Here Is The Simple Reason Why QE Is Unnecessary

As the following chart from David Rosenberg demonstrates, consumers are retrenching, and "just saying no" to both residential and consumer loans. Earlier, we also showed that Small Businesses also contracted, demonstrating that credit demand is collapsing at every vertical of US society. As such, QE, or ever cheaper money, has and always will be a "push" phenomenon, for which there is simply no demand, in a society that has trillions more of deleveraging to undergo. And banks realize that with retail investors not participating in the stock market, and thus having nobody to offload risky exposure to, using reserves to bid up risky assets will merely result in more pain down the road once profit taking time comes and everything goes bidless. As such, as debate over the utility of QE is moot. The only question is what the Fed's persistent desire to debase the dollar will do the perception of monetary aggregates (i.e., the stability of the dollar) and whether the demand for alternatives (such as gold) will offset the need to liquidate said alternatives as a last-ditch source of capital to cover margin calls in a deflationary vortex. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

Shock And Yawn: BofA's David Bianco Proves He Is "Smarter" Than Goldman By Raising His S&P EPS Estimates

Jan Hatzius' recent downgrade of the US economy, and the subsequent downgrade of the S&P by such formerly gruntled optimists as Goldman's David Kostin, has completely failed to register with permabullnut gallery. Case in point: the Bank of America strategist who was supposed to replace David Rosenberg, yet has become his own satirist caricature, David Bianco, has decided to go completely the other way, by actually rising not only his 2010 S&P estimates, but also 2011, and even, hilariously, 2012, this despite other such landed economist Ph.D's (from reputable institutions) as the San Fran Fed warning that there is a "significant" risk of a double dip in 2 years (yes, that's the Fed warning about a re-recession, not some rational, realistic, coherent human being), thus once again proving that his true worth is whatever CNBC pays him for his daily appearances in the Cheerleader Session block (which has now dropped out of Nielsen tracking due to complete lack of public interest in vapid propaganda). And for those who claim idiocy can not be captures in words, we disagree. To wit "Some dismiss our target because a deflationary shock could collapse current EPS. Others argue that EPS will be flat for years. We disagree; we think exceptionally low interest rates support real estate values and EPS will grow through foreign investment. The S&P has the best of the DM and EM world, low rates and healthy growth." Speechlessness ensues. What follows is propaganda so scary, it is good. If Bianco really believes this, we hope BofA provides free psychiatric sessions for its employees.

Rosenberg Slams "Doubly Pathetic" Non Farm Payroll Report

We already noted that last Friday's NFP number was a major disappointment for everyone objective enough to acknowledge it for what is was. Here is David Rosenberg's even more aggressive condemnation of the continuous lack of economic recovery in this country, whose only impact it appears is to drive futures higher (not regular hours trading mind you - it is far easier to push the market in a desired direction when there are ten people and a few computers trading).

The Contrarian Market And The Liquidity Glut Dissected

BofA's credit strategist Jeffrey Rosenberg has shared some interesting insights with his clients. In a letter from August 2, Rosenberg explains everything one needs to know why the stock market continues to rise in the face of increasing adversity and ever more negative news:

“I can’t think of a reason to be bullish...so I guess that is the reason to be bullish.” That quote from a client at our June 30th credit roundtable dinner in our view best summarized investor sentiment at the beginning of July. It also highlighted a key technical reason to have been bullish in July as negative investor sentiment reached a peak at the beginning of the month."

Couple that with the sudden buzz that QE X.X is imminent, and a surge in market liquidity, and once can see how the market is now completely disconnected from fund flows, as contrarian animal spirits, and a rising liquidity tide have once again become the dominant, and only, factors in market tactics, if not strategy. And speaking of liquidity, here is an analysis of the key source and uses of liquidity in the market currently.

Vacation Thoughts From David Rosenberg

It appears those truly concerned with the proper functioning of the market can never truly sit still (especially when, as today confirms, it merely keeps on breaking little by little until it goes poof once again as not even one quadrillion of fake stuffed quotes can keep the market up any longer). Case in point: David Rosenberg, who should be on vacation, yet posted this typically delightful breakdown of the bullshit action in stocks when juxtaposed with the ever deteriorating reality.

Bloomberg Tries To Make Sense Of The Market In Hundreds Of Pretty Charts, Fails

From Bloomberg's Michael Rosenberg: "U.S. bond yields are presently priced for an anemic economic recovery,
consistent with U.S. nominal GDP growth averaging around 3% for the
next two years, which is nowhere near the 5% projected by
private-sector economists and the FOMC. Something has to give here.
Either forecasters will need to revise their forecasts lower, or U.S.
bond yields are at risk of moving sharply higher.
All of this suggests that greater caution on the part of investors is
warranted. Indeed, in a world where market expectations are not firmly
anchored and where the economic outlook is “unusually uncertain”, a
defensive posture appears to be the prudent course from here on." In other bizarro words, buy stocks. Below is July's Financial Conditions Watch in which yet another person tries to make sense of what is now a completely irrational and busted market. (and yes, the pageview flipping presentations that some of our competitors will make out of this document will be simply mindboggling)

Top 10 Most Read Posts In The Past Week

These are the Top 10 most read posts of the prior week:

  1. Marc Faber: Relax, This Will Hurt A Lot
  2. Ever Wondered How You Know You Are In A Depression? David Rosenberg Explains
  3. Guest Post: Gold Swap Signals the Roadmap Ahead
  4. "It's Not A Market, It's An HFT 'Crop Circle' Crime Scene" - Further Evidence Of Quote Stuffing Manipulation By HFT
  5. Jim Rickards Compares The Collapse Of The Roman Empire To The US, Concludes That We Are Far Worse Off
  6. LBMA Closes Off Public Access To Key Bullion Bank Trading Data
  7. S&P Priced In Gold: Comparison Between The Great Depression And Now
  8. Warren Pollock Warns Of Emergency Drug Shortage As EMTs Told To Go To "Alternate Protocols"
  9. China Calls Our Bluff: "The US is Insolvent and Faces Bankruptcy as a Pure Debtor Nation but [U.S.] Rating Agencies Still Give it High Rankings"
  10. Already Bought A 3D LCD In Anticipation Of QE "Instarefi" 1.999? You May Want To Consider A Refund

 

Bull/Bear Weekly Recap

A concise and objective summary of the week's bullish and bearish events

Ten Things That Would Turn Rosie Bullish, And A Realistic Read On Today's GDP Data

One of the world's most realistic people (which for some reason the permabulls take as an indication of extreme bearishness: which is fine - after all they themselves live in an imaginary world populated with market marking unicorns and benign computer programs), David Rosenberg has shared ten things that would make him bullish. Alas reading through these gives one the impression that Hades would first turn endothermic before any of these actually were to come true. And for some more practical views from Rosie, we also include his spot on interpretation of today's GDP data.