Royal Bank of Scotland

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Why Canada's Oil Industry May Never Be The Same





It is increasingly certain that the future will not be like the past. Previous downturns have been equally devastating but the primary causes eventually reversed themselves; low commodity prices recovered and damaging government policies were rescinded. This recovery will be different for a variety of reasons which will combine to cap growth, opportunity and profits, even if oil and gas prices spike. The following major changes appear permanent...

 
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Futures Rebound Off Lows Following Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ





Futures are currently unchanged, but the E-mini was down as much as 12 points less than two hours earlier after the European open when this time it was up to the PBOC to intervene in global markets by pushing the Yuan higher (selling USDCNY via intermediary banks) sending global stocks sharply higher off session lows and leaving the S&P futures virtually unchanged. As Bloomberg reported, there has been increasing USD/CNY selling in afternoon session as Dollar Index edged lower. This is the PBOC entering the building and levitating stocks.

 
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Frontrunning: April 18





  • Crude's Losses Drag Ruble, Loonie Lower; Stocks Pare Their Drop (BBG)
  • Grand Oil Bargain Is Victim of Saudi Arabia's Iran Fixation (BBG)
  • Both Parties’ Presidential Front-Runners Increasingly Unpopular (WSJ)
  • It's up to you, New York: state takes center stage in election campaign (Reuters)
  • Rousseff Hangs by a Thread After Losing Impeachment Vote (BBG)
  • China March home prices rise at fastest rate in two years, top cities boom (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: April 13





  • Gloomy start to results season hits shares (Reuters)
  • Stocks Rise Around World as Commodities Advance; Bonds, Yen Drop (BBG)
  • Oil hits 2016 high above $43 on producer meeting hopes (Reuters)
  • Rosneft chief Igor Sechin says low oil prices will not last (FT)
  • Banks Face Massive New Headache on Oil Loans (WSJ)
  • Wells Fargo Misjudged the Risks of Energy Financing (BBG)
 
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Goldman Slammed With $5.1 Billion Fine For "Serious Misconduct" In Mortgage Selling





Hot on the heels of Wells Fargo's $1.2 billion settlement, Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs will pay $5.1 billion to settle a U.S. probe into its handling of mortgage-backed securities involving allegations that loans weren’t properly vetted before being sold to investors as high-quality bonds. “This resolution holds Goldman Sachs accountable for its serious misconduct in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgages, when it knew that they were full of mortgages that were likely to fail,” said Acting Associate Attorney General Stuart Delery.

 
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Frontrunning: March 23





  • Futures little changed day after Brussels attacks (Reuters)
  • Trump, Clinton win big in Arizona, but Cruz, Sanders show fight (Reuters)
  • Belgium identifies Brussels bomb suspect, suicide bombers (Reuters)
  • After Brussels Terrorist Attacks, Security Ramped Up in U.S. Cities (WSJ)
  • Terror Impact Threatens Cameron EU Pitch, Merkel's Open Door (BBG)
  • Brussels Attacks Will Jolt 2016 U.S. Presidential Race (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: March 17





  • Global Stocks Slip Following Fed’s Cautious Tone (WSJ)
  • Oil rallies towards $41, near 2016 high, on producer meeting (Reuters)
  • Hamptons luxury home sales soften as Wall Street weakness takes a toll (Reuters)
  • Obama picks centrist high court nominee; Republicans unmoved (Reuters)
  • Allies See Challenges for Hillary Clinton in a General Election Campaign (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: March 16





  • Trump knocks Rubio out of race, Republicans in turmoil (Reuters)
  • Fed to Signal Worst Is Over, Hikes Coming: Decision-Day Guide (BBG)
  • Four Economists See a Surprise from the Fed This Week (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Muted Ahead of Fed Announcement (WSJ)
  • Stop-Trump Groups Make One Last Bet on Rubio, and Lose (BBG)
  • China's Li Seeks 'Win-Win' for Growth-Reform Plan Analysts Doubt (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 15





  • Bank of Japan Holds Fire on Stimulus, Negative Rate Unchanged (BBG)
  • Donald Trump Aims for a Knockout in Tuesday Primaries (WSJ)
  • Global Stocks Fall on Commodities Decline, Ahead of Fed Meeting (WSJ)
  • Oil prices fall as clouds gather over supply picture (Reuters)
  • Many Shale Companies Are Unable to Ramp Up Oil Output (WSJ)
 
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Asian Surge Continues As Rally Stalls In Europe; S&P Futures Unchanged





While Asian stocks continued their longest rally since August overnight, led higher for the third consecutive day on the back of Japan (+1.3%), Australia (+1.2%) and China (+0.4%) strength, European stocks have as of this moment halted their longest rally since October (Stoxx -0.1%) and U.S. index futures are little changed. Oil slipped from an eight-week high despite yesterday's massive rise in US oil inventories on hopes Saudi Arabia may be forced to cut production as its budget strains grow actue and the kingdom is forced to seek a $10 billion loan, its first material borrowing in a decade.

 
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Frontrunning: February 26





  • Fight night: Rubio, Cruz gang up on Trump in debate ploy (Reuters)
  • Laid Bare in Shanghai: G-20 Tensions Over How to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • China Flags Scope for Policy Stimulus, Tweaks Monetary Stance (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Rise With Commodities as China Sees Room to Ease (BBG)
  • Greece seeks to stem migrant flow as thousands trapped by border limits (Reuters)
 
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Global Stocks, Oil Continue Streamrolling Shorts On Last Minute Hopes For G-20 Stimulus Announcement





With the conclusion of this weekend's G-20 unknown, and many still expecting a major stimulus, the squeeze will likely continue into the close of trading ahead of the  weekend when nobody will want to be caught short into what may end up being another global coordinated intervention to prop up markets. “With a lot of policy events coming there is a fair chance of more stimulus plans so the markets can squeeze higher,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG. "The big reversal shows that there is some expectation building up into those events."

 
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Donald Trump Is Right: Here Are 100 Reasons Why We Need To Audit The Federal Reserve





When a leading nominee for President gets something exactly right, we should applaud them for it.  In this case, Donald Trump’s call to audit the Federal Reserve is dead on correct.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but the Federal Reserve has far more power over the economy than anyone else does – including Barack Obama.  The funny thing is that the Federal Reserve is not even part of the federal government.  It is an independent private central bank that was designed by very powerful Wall Street interests a little over 100 years ago.  It is at the heart of the debt-based financial system which is eating away at America like cancer, and it has no direct accountability to the American people whatsoever.

 
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Frontrunning: February 22





  • Futures sharply higher as oil extends gains (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Gain on Rising Commodities Prices, China (WSJ)
  • Pound in freefall as Boris Johnson sparks Brexit fears (Telegraph)
  • Pound Slides Most Since 2009 as Johnson Backs ‘Brexit’ Campaign (BBG)
  • Oil Glut Will Persist Into 2017 as IEA Sees Prices Capped (BBG)
  • Japanese Seeking a Place to Stash Cash Start Snapping Up Safes (WSJ)
 
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