Royal Bank of Scotland

US Futures; Euro Stocks Slide On Deutsche Bank Liquidity Fears; Bonds Bid

Following yesterday's paradoxical US stock surge catalyzed by a bevy of bad macroeonomic news, the overnight session has seen some good old "risk off" mood which hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe's biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower.

Frontrunning: September 6

  • G20 a success for China, but hard issues kicked down the road (Reuters)
  • Apple’s New iPhones Arrive, as Glow Fades (WSJ)
  • Philippines scrambles to soothe tensions after insult to Obama (Reuters)
  • CNN: Nine weeks out, a near even race (CNN)
  • More Records Releases Loom for Hillary Clinton (WSJ)

The Blessing Of Cash (And Why Central Bankers Hate It So Much)

Cash is an unambiguously a blessing to productive workers, savers, and entrepreneurs who wish to protect their hard earned money from the crazed theories and swindling schemes promoted by statists like Rogoff and the central bankers he advises.

Two More Banks Start Charging Select Clients For Holding Cash

Last weekend, when we reported that Germany's Raiffeisenbank Gmund am Tegernsee - a community bank in southern Germany - said it would start charging retail clients a fee of 0.4% on deposits of more than €100,000 we said that "now that a German banks has finally breached the retail depositor NIRP barrier, expect many more banks to follow." Not even a week later, not one but two large banks have done just that.

Frontrunning: August 8

  • Global stocks, dollar gain as payrolls fuel risk-on trades (Reuters)
  • Suicide bomber kills at least 50 at Pakistan hospital (Reuters)
  • Waiting Forever for Fed Model Bull Case on Stocks to Come True (BBG)
  • Oil Rises Despite Supply Glut (WSJ)
  • Fed's Powell urges patience on U.S. rates, citing growth risks (Reuters)
  • Trump to Propose Moratorium on New Financial Regulations (BBG)

Musical Chairs

Economics is a bit like musical chairs. In a recession, the economy takes a hit and there are some casualties. Some players fail to get a chair in time and are out of the game. The game then goes on without them. The economy eventually recovers. But a depression is a different game entirely...

Futures, Global Stocks Rise As Oil, USDJPY Drops: All Eyes On The Jobs Report

With all eyes on today's jobs report, where consensus expects a 180K payrolls gain, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rise amid a surge in government debt as markets digest the BOE's "kitchen sink" easing for a second day. But please don't overthink it. In deja vu fashion, Bloomberg summarizes the action simply as "stocks rose around the world on speculation central bank stimulus measures will support the global economy." We've heard that just a few times before.

Frontrunning: August 4

  • Bank of England cuts rates for first time since 2009, restarts bond purchases (Reuters)
  • Obama administration denies Iran cash payment was a ransom (Reuters)
  • Mike Pence Endorses Paul Ryan After Donald Trump’s Refusal (WSJ)
  • In slap at Trump, some wealthy Republicans campaign for Clinton (Reuters)
  • Clinton leads Trump by 17 points in NH (The Hill)

Global Shares Slide As Japan Stimulus Disappoints, RBA Underwhelems, Italy Bank Fears Return

European stocks slid to a two-week low amid mixed earnings, as bank stocks extended yesterday’s decline as fears that Italy is not "fixed" have reemerged, not helped by an adverse market reaction to a disappointing Japanese fiscal stimulus announcement, while the AUD first dropped but then jumped after the RBA's priced in rate cut was announced, seen as underwhelming.

One Month Later - Brexit Post-Mortem

One month on from the referendum, there is no sign of the Treasury’s $4300-loss VAR model predictions coming to fruition. London is teeming with people, many of them foreign visitors, spending money in cafes, restaurants, theatres and other visitor attractions. The country roads are still jammed with caravans, tractors, tourists and white vans trying in all their productive mayhem to go about their business. Wimpish businessmen dithering over trade and investment plans are being forced to get on with life... and our long-abandoned trade friends in the Commonwealth are keen to talk to us, as is China. And who can forget President Obama’s threat when it came to negotiating T-TIP with the EU? Well, we are no longer at the back of the queue, but at the front of the line.