Royal Bank of Scotland

Frontrunning: July 18

  • Global stocks rise on SoftBank bid for ARM, dollar up vs yen after Turkey crushes coup (Reuters)
  • U.S. backs justice for coup plotters but urges Turkey to keep rule of law (Reuters)
  • Law and Order Will Be a Big Republican Convention Them (WSJ)
  • SoftBank to buy UK chip designer ARM in $32 billion cash deal (Reuters)
  • Rate-starved U.S. banks happily gobble mortgage business (Reuters)

Frontrunning: July 13

  • Brexit, what Brexit? Shares near 2016 highs (Reuters), Global Stocks Inch Higher (WSJ), Stocks Climb With Copper as Brexit-Induced Volatility Subsides (BBG)
  • Yen under pressure as global stock markets rally (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Surge as Fears Subside Over EU Mortgage Ruling (BBG)
  • Pimco Loads Up on Treasuries as Gundlach to Gross Voice Caution (BBG)
  • U.S. Presses China to Be Responsible Power After Sea Ruling (BBG)

Previewing Today's Main Event: David Cameron Arrives In Brussels

For the first time since triggering a political earthquake that’s shaken Europe's foundations with his now massively backfired decision to hold a EU membership referendum in 2015, a decision which won him the parliamentary election battle but lost him, and Europe, the war, UK Prime Minister David Cameron is set to face his fellow - and very angry - European Union leaders at what may be Cameron's last summit in Brussels, even as back in London, the race to succeed him is heating up.

Pound Plummets To New Lows; 10Y Gilts Slide Under 1%; British Banks Halted After Crashing

Things are going from bad to worse for the UK. "We’ve seen so many developments around Brexit over the weekend since the FTSE closed and things are now looking even more concerning," Angus Nicholson of IG Ltd., said. "It’s hard to have any idea about where fair value for the pound should be when you look at the fact that Scotland and Northern Ireland could no longer be part of the U.K. within the next year or two."

Central Bankers Around The Globle Scramble To Defend Markets: BOE Pledges $345BN; ECB, Others Promise Liquidity

There was a reason why we warned readers two days ago that "The World's Central Bankers Are Gathering At The BIS' Basel Tower Ahead Of The Brexit Result": simply enough, it was to facilitate an immediate response when a worst-cased Brexit vote hit. And that is precisely what has happened today in the aftermath of the historic British decision to exit the EU.  It started, as one would expect, with Mark Carney who said the Bank of England is ready to pump billions of pounds into the financial system as he stands at the front line of Britain’s defense against a Brexit-provoked market crisis.

These Are The Banks That Would Be Hardest Hit In The Event Of A Brexit

The problems that UK banks will encounter would be twofold: they would potentially lose access to European markets; and the next wave of concern would be presumably a weaker pound accompanied by higher interest rates - the latter hurting those who are already highly indebted. With Brexit odds at an all-time high, here is a succinct overview of the banks that would be the most affected should the UK vote to leave.

The ECB Met With Goldman, Other Banks At Shanghai G-20 Meeting, Allegedly Leaking March Stimulus

On March 10, 2016 when the ECB announced the biggest expansion to quantitative easing in European history, when it shocked the market by announcing not only a reduction in its negative rate and expansion in the TLTRO program, but also the launch of a corporate bond monetization program.Well maybe not "shocked" the market, because as Bloomberg writes, ECB board members met with representatives of banks and investment managers including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Moore Europe Capital Management in February, just days before the ECB's March 10 announcement.

Frontrunning: May 13

  • Nerves dominate before U.S. retail numbers (Reuters)
  • Stocks Give Up Week’s Gains as Commodities Fall; Yen, Bonds Rise (BBG)
  • Apple Invests $1 Billion in Didi, Uber’s Rival in China (WSJ)
  • Dollar hits two-week high, posts best fortnight since February (Reuters)
  • OPEC Sees Rival Oil Production Declining as Markets Rebalance (WSJ)
  • Trump on best behavior as he woos Republicans but differences remain (Reuters)

Frontrunning: May 5

  • Europe shares, oil snap four-day losing streaks (Reuters)
  • Oil rallies as Canada fire and Libya violence threaten supply (Reuters)
  • How Trump Won—and How the GOP Let Him (WSJ)
  • Hedge Fudge Managers Lose Their Swagger (BBG)
  • Turkey Premier Said to Give Up as Erdogan Tightens Grip (BBG)

Why Canada's Oil Industry May Never Be The Same

It is increasingly certain that the future will not be like the past. Previous downturns have been equally devastating but the primary causes eventually reversed themselves; low commodity prices recovered and damaging government policies were rescinded. This recovery will be different for a variety of reasons which will combine to cap growth, opportunity and profits, even if oil and gas prices spike. The following major changes appear permanent...