• ilene
    01/28/2015 - 19:33
    Suppose you could print up counterfeit dollars, euros or yen that were identical to the real things. Fun, you think? Here's how it plays out. 

Royal Bank of Scotland

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Frontrunning: January 21





  • Obama Targets Income Gap in Address That Shapes 2016 Election (BBG)
  • Republicans Reject Obama’s Main Economic Proposals (WSJ)
  • Senate’s Shelby Says White House Bank Tax Is Dead on Arrival (BBG)
  • Is Dollar Next? Investors Reassess After Swiss Shock: Currencies (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan Cuts Price Forecast, Maintains Record Stimulus (BBG)
  • Pound Weakens After BOE Policy Makers Drop Call to Raise Rates (BBG)
  • Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis (Reuters)
  • Indonesia will not make public full preliminary AirAsia crash report (Reuters)
  • Party Hasn't Stopped for Russians at Davos Even With Ukraine Sanctions (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: January 12





  • Earnings Pessimism Jumps as Oil Threatens S&P 500 Growth (BBG)
  • It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market (BBG)
  • France mobilizes 10,000 troops at home after Paris shootings (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Gain With S&P 500 Futures While Oil Drops (BBG)
  • Nasdaq Looks to Operate Dark Pools for Banks (WSJ)
  • This Guy Called Bonds in ’14. You Listening This Time? (BBG)
  • Paris attacks boost support for Dutch anti-Islam populist Wilders (Reuters)
  • OPEC price war in Asia intensifies as oil falls below $50 (Reuters)
 
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Nightmare On Wall Street: 2014 Banker Bonuses Set To Drop





To most people it would be shocking that after $60 billion in litigation charges, i.e., the "cost of doing criminal business" for just the first 9 months of 2014 and a ridiculous $178 billion since Lehman the there would be those who are stunned that bonuses on Wall Street may take a hit as a result of all this rampant, and caught, criminality. Well, "those" exist. They are called bankers, the same group which in poll after poll heading into the end of 2014 predicted that this bonus season would be far better than what was paid out in 2013 (and most of which spent the money well in advance). Alas, that is not going to be the case.

 
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Market Wrap: Evans' "Catastrophe" Comment Blasts Overnight Futures Into Overdrive, 10-Year Rises To 2%





After subdued trading in the overnight session until a little after 8pm Eastern, algos went into overdrive just around the time the Fed's 2015 voting member and uberdove Charlie Evans told reporters that "raising rates would be a catastrophe", hinting that the first rate hike would likely be - as usual - pushed back from market expectations of a mid-2015 liftoff cycle into 2016 or beyond (but don't blame the US, it is the "international situation's" fault), in the process punking the latest generation of Eurodollar traders yet again. Whatever the thinking, S&P futures soared on the comments and were higher by just under 20 points at last check even as Crude has failed to pick up and the 10Y is barely changed at 2.00%.

 
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Frontrunning: January 6





  • Average 10-year yield of U.S., Japan and Germany dropped below 1% for the first time ever: Free Money in Bond Markets Shows Global Economy Still Struggling (BBG)
  • Brent falls below $52 as oil hits new five and a half year lows (Reuters)
  • China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Raises Price of Main Oil Grade for Asian Buyers (BBG)
  • Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values (BBG)
  • Biggest Oil-Rig Drop Since 2009 Spells Tough Year Ahead (BBG)
  • CIA says its inspector general is resigning at end of month (Reuters)
  • Pipeline IPOs Climb on Demand for Returns Immune to Oil (BBG)
  • Natural Gas No Savior for Investors Seeking Oil Refuge (BBG)
  • Euro zone economy ended 2014 in poor shape (Reuters)
 
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These 19 States Just Hiked The Minimum Wage: Here Come The "Unintended Consequences"





The reason why the BLS has not yet revealed the reality of the shifting US labor force, and why there is virtually no real wage growth across the US, is that the BLS simply backs into statistically goal-seeked results, using seasonal and statistical (birth/death) adjustments to smooth a trendline to beat a monthly bogey used by algos to bid stocks higher. Meanwhile, the reality at the micro level, is that increasingly more Americans are seeing their work status transformed from full-time to part-time status, earning less in the process, having no healthcare and retirement benefits and virtually no job security. As a result, starting this year, some 19 states just increased their minimum wage threshold, with 3 more states due to follow later in 2015. This takes place at the state level because for numerous reasons, there simply wan't enough of a consensus to pass this at the Federal level.

 
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RBS Goes Medieval, Dares To Suspend Bonuses Of 18 FX-Rigging Traders





Ouch! 80% government-owned Royal Bank of Scotland is daring to go there... In the wake of a comprehensive review of more than 50 current and former traders who worked at the bank (and a $634 million fine), Bloomberg reports that RBS is suspending the bonuses of 18 FX traders. “We are undertaking a robust and thorough review into the actions of the traders that caused this wrongdoing and the management that oversaw it,” Jon Pain, RBS’s head of conduct and regulatory affairs, said, adding "no further bonus payments will be made or unvested bonus awards released to those in scope of the review until it has concluded."

 
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Frontrunning: December 24





  • Russia says NATO turning Ukraine into 'frontline of confrontation' (Reuters)
  • Oil Drillers Under Pressure to Scrap Rigs to Cope With Downturn (BBG)
  • Demonstrators Defy NYC Mayor's Call to Suspend Police Protests (BBG)
  • U.S. to send more private contractors to Iraq (Reuters)
  • ISIS Shoots Down Jet From U.S.-Led Coalition, Syrian Monitors Say (NYT)
  • Russians Race to Secure Mortgages Before Costs Spiral (BBG)
  • Abe Brings in Former Soldier Nakatani as Defense Minister (BBG)
  • At Coke, Newest Flavor Is Austerity (WSJ)
  • Fear and retribution in Xi's corruption purge (Reuters)
  • UBS Raises Flag on China’s $1 Trillion Overseas Debt Pile (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: December 17





  • Citigroup is pleased: Obama signs $1.1 trillion government spending bill (Reuters)
  • Oil holds below $60 as OPEC, Russia keep pumping (Reuters)
  • 5 Things to watch at the December Fed Meeting (WSJ)
  • Russia Tries Emergency Steps for 2nd Day to Stem Ruble Rout (BBG)
  • Ruble crisis could shake Putin's grip on power (Reuters)
  • Apple Curbs Russia Sales as McDonald’s Lifts Prices (BBG)
  • Traders Betting Russia’s Next Move Will Be to Sell Gold (BBG)
  • China Warms to a More Flexible Yuan (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: December 16





  • Ruble Sinks to 80 a Dollar Defying Surprise Russia Rate Increase (BBG)
  • Oil slumps near $59 for first time since 2009 on oversupply (Reuters)
  • Oil sinks, Russian moves fail to quell nerves (Reuters)
  • Fed Seen Looking Past Low Inflation to Drop ‘Considerable Time (BBG)
  • Students Among Dead as Pakistan Gunmen Kill 126 at Army School (BBG)
  • Repsol to buy Talisman Energy for $13 billion (Reuters)
  • Indonesia’s Rupiah Erases Decline After Central Bank Intervenes (BBG)
  • Anti-Islam Rally Grows as Immigrant Backlash Hits Europe (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia is playing chicken with its oil (Reuters)
 
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RBS Abandons Japanese Bond Trading, Cuts 200 Jobs; Stocks, USDJPY, JGB Yields Are Re-Plunging





The Nikkei 225 has fallen over 300 points from the v-shaped recovery close at the end of the US day session and is now trading below the lows of the day at 2-week lows. USDJPY has plunged over 100 pips having briefly neared 120.00, now back below 119.00. JGB Futures are trading near record highs prices as yields collapse to near-record lows (30Y -23bps since QQE, 20Y -15bps) only seen during last year's yield-crash. No surprise then with the bond market "dead" according to market participants and yields negligible, that RBS has decided to exit the Japanese fixed-income business, slashing 200 jobs, and surrendering its primary bond dealership.

 
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Frontrunning: December 9





  • China’s Stocks Sink Most Since 2009 as Turnover Jumps to Record (BBG)
  • Greek Stocks, Bonds Tumble (WSJ)
  • China tightens LGFV funding screws (BBG)
  • Crude Rebounds From Five-Year Low Amid Shale-Oil Spending Curbs (BBG)
  • Sexual threats, other CIA methods detailed in Senate report (Reuters)
  • U.S. Takes Security Precautions Overseas Ahead of CIA Report (WSJ)
  • Light-Speed Treasury Trading Governed by Rules Dating to 1998 (BBG)
  • Delhi to ban all internet taxi firms after Uber rape claim (Reuters)
  • Supreme Group Fined $389 Million for Overcharging Pentagon (WSJ)
 
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UK Regulator Shocked That Slapping Banker Wrists Achieves Nothing





Not a quarter passes without a bank announcing, as part of its earning statement, that - it just so happens - it has incurred a few hundreds million (or billion) in legal fees, expenses and charges for breaking the law and manipulating this market or that (recall that for banks "Crime Is Now An Ordinary Course Of Business"), but it's ok, because it is a one-time, non-recurring thing, so please exclude it from the EPS calculation.... Until the next quarter when everything repeats once more. But the repetition of "one-time" events is not the only constant: the other one, of course, is that nobody ever goes to jail. The latter is also the reason why, as the WSJ reports, British regulators are "getting exasperated with banks failing to clean up their act after repeated wrongdoings." No, really: the UK's equivalent to the SEC truly can't understand how banks refuse to stop breaking the law when the have a paid for by others - and quite literal - get out of jail card.

 
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Frontrunning: December 1





  • Moody’s Downgrades Japan’s Credit Rating (WSJ)
  • China Factory Gauge Drops as Shutdowns Add to Slowdown (BBG)
  • Euro zone factory growth stalls in November as new orders sink (Reuters)
  • Espírito Santo Faces Money-Laundering Investigations (WSJ)
  • Oil at $40 Possible as Market Transforms Caracas to Iran (BBG)
  • Hong Kong warns protesters not to return after clashes close government HQ (Reuters)
  • Bond Secrets Decoded 9,539 Miles From Wall Street in Lot (BBG)
  • Ruble Rally Turns to Rout as Fortunes Tied to Sinking Oil (BBG)
  • Loans Made in Blink as Banks, Funds Vie for LendingClub Clients (BBG)
 
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