What all this warrants is extreme caution in Bubbleville. With geopolitical risk flashing bright red, half percent GDP growth, record high equity valuations and a delusional Fed that continues threatening interest rate normalization; the market’s reality check is surely imminent.
"To me, this situation feels like a slow-motion train wreck where all you can do is watch... Washington’s monumental gridlock is on a collision course with investors’ blind euphoria. We’re all on one train or the other. Hold on tight."
"The boost to S&P 500 earnings from a lower corporate tax rate is likely to be smaller and to occur later than investors originally expected. Our Washington economist expects the tax rate will be cut less than proposed to roughly 25%."
It is pretty accepted knowledge that a number of lower-skilled jobs will disappear in the coming 5-10 years, due to the human element being replaced by autonomous machines. And if you think your job requires a higher, special element of skill and mental acuity that just cannot be automated, you are probably very mistaken. In fact, there are few (if any) jobs in which a machine would be inferior to a person. And this is not as far out in the future as you may think.
After a multi-month, politically charged investigation, German intelligence agencies could find no good evidence of Moscow-directed cyber-attacks or a disinformation campaign aimed at subverting the democratic process in Germany. Undaunted, Chancellor Angela Merkel has commissioned a new investigation.
"You have protesters who feel very emboldened. They’ve got media cameras following them...I don’t even know if they know what they’re protesting. Really, what is it, the free speech? Having someone on your campus who has a dissenting point of view or wants to present an alternative point of view?"
While President Trump chose not to attend the elite extravaganza in Davos last week, choosing instead to lambast the great-est and good-est of the world's executives in their crony capitalist safe space, the cognitively dissonant CEOs reassured each other by saying 'ignore the tweets', confident that "if [Trump] knows the facts, he’ll respond according to the facts." It depends whose 'facts' those are, of course.
It took a while, but the world are slowly coming to grips with the simple fact the Chinese miracle is built on a pile of debt with only an unconstrained printing press to support it. The danger is obviously that the political establishment in China will be in dire need to distract the hordes of angry masses that are about to lose their life savings.
"Whatever’s going to happen is going to happen between now and early 2018, because that’s their window of time to create enough chaos and desperation in order to convince people, to rationalize the idea of switching to a global currency system. After that, I would expect there would be a process of acclimating the public to this new system, and I would expect that a lot of countries would be in third world conditions for a while after that."
The countdown has started as the demise of the great U.S. shale gas industry has begun. This will have a disastrous impact on the U.S. economy as shale gas production declines in a big way. Unfortunately, very few Americans understand how sickly the domestic shale gas industry truly is, because they have been brainwashed to believe the United States is heading towards energy independence.