Rude Awakening

Tyler Durden's picture

Global Trade Grinds To A Crawl





"Shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe fell 12.4 percent," for the week Reuters notes. This is seventh consecutive week of declines and puts us squarely back at levels last seen in 2013.

 
EconMatters's picture

The 5 Most Crowded Trades on Wall Street: Part 3





Utilities have always been attractive yield plays for conservative investors, but natural gas prices are low and margins are not that great for the industry.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Live, From Athens, It's Anti-Government Protest Live





Two words can describe yesterday's first impromptu anti-government protest "organized" by the far-left Antarsya party now that the Greek honeymoon with the new Syriza government is over: disorganized and violent, especially since calling it a "protest" is a stretch - if anything was just young, unemployed, angry people tossing Molotov cocktails. Which is why today's first truly official protest organized by the Greek communist party in front of the Greek parliament on the well-known Syntagma square, will get far more attention, especially since it was Syriza's own anti-bailout protests that filled the same venue as recently as a few weeks ago.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

We Are Entering An Era Of Shattered Illusions





The structure of history is held together by two essential and distinct kinds of links, two moments in time to which no one is immune: moments of epiphany, and moments of catastrophe. Sometimes, both elements intermingle at the birth of a singular epoch. Men often awaken to understanding in the midst of great crisis; and, invariably, great crises can erupt when men awaken. These are the moments when social gravity vanishes, when the kinetic glue of normalcy melts away, and we begin to see the true foundations of our world, if a foundation exists at all. That time is now...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Europe's Monetary Madness





If you want to know where the global experiment in massive money printing is heading - just take a look at the monetary madhouse in Europe. And that particular phrase has full resonance once again as it becomes more apparent by the hour that Europe and the Euro were not fixed at all. Indeed, beneath the surface of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” time out, the crisis has been metastasizing into ever more virulent deformations.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why US Shale May Fizzle Rather Than Boom





The Shale Revolution may not really end up being a revolution after all. A new study in Nature finds that the estimates for shale gas production could be vastly overblown, and production could peak within the next decade.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Crowdfunding - Disruptive Finance Goes Global





Crowdfunding is here, it is real, and it is growing!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Irony Of Bubbles





The one market seemingly everyone "knows" is a bubble is the treasury market. That is the market that just made new low yields on the 30 year bond for the year. GTAT, which is the first true "jump to default" I have ever seen looks exactly like a "bubble" popping,  is spurring the rethinking of where the risk is in high yield.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Global Growth Is So Disappointing





Maybe what we want and what we need has been confused. Maybe the thin veneer of ebullient hollow markets has been confused for the real activity of real companies. Maybe the theatre of a Wise Man with an Answer has been confused for intellectually honest leadership. Maybe theoretical certainty has been confused for practical humility. The problem with sparking renewed economic growth in the West is that domestic politics in the West do not depend on economic growth. What we have in the US today, and even more so in Europe (ex-Germany), are not the politics of growth but rather the politics of identity.

 
EconMatters's picture

College and Pro Football Season Big Boost to U.S. Economy





Give me Football Season over the Federal Reserve any day of the week in terms of actual ‘boots on the ground’ stimulus.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Do-Over" - Groupthink, Mass Delusion, And "Hell To Pay"





"By all measures, the U.S. stock market is currently frothy," warns Paul Singer, founder of $24.8 billion hedge fund firm Elliott Management, ominously concluding, "The apparent stability of the world financial system is superficial – financial asset prices are not real, the equilibrium is temporary, the lack of volatility is a trap, and when the whole thing goes haywire, there will truly be hell to pay."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

High-Yield Credit Crashes To 6-Month Lows As Outflows Continue





We have been warning for a while that not only is the high-yield credit market sending a warning but that it is critical for equity investors to comprehend why this is such bad news. This week has seen exuberant equity markets start to catch down to high-yield's warning but today's surge in HY credit spreads to six month wides is a rude awakening. Between outflows, a huge wall of maturities (and no Fed liquidity), and corporate leverage, the reach-for-yield just became an up-in-quality scramble. HY spreads are over 70bps wider than cycle tights implying the S&P 500 should be around 1775. When the easy-money-funded buyback party ends, will you still be dancing?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

When You See This Happen, You Know It's Game Over For The Dollar





This week, 70 years after Bretton Woods, leaders from China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and several other nations are hard at work in Fortaleza, Brazil creating a new development bank that will compete against the US-controlled World Bank. This is a major step in an obvious trend towards a new financial system. Every shred of objective data is screaming for this to happen. It’s a different world. Everyone realizes it except for the US government, which is still living in the past where they’re #1 and get to call all the shots.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Problem With Forward P/Es





It is always interesting that, following two major bear markets, investors have forgotten that it was these very same analysts that had them buying into the market peaks previously. As we know repeatedly from history, extrapolated projections rarely happen.  Therefore, when analysts value the market as if current profits are representative of an indefinite future, they have likely insured investors will receive a very rude awakening at some point in the future. There is mounting evidence, from valuations being paid in M&A deals, junk bond yields, margin debt and price extensions from long term means, "exuberance" is once again returning to the financial markets.

 
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