Same Store Sales

Frontrunning: June 9

  • European Bond Yields Hit Record Lows as Stocks Tumble (WSJ)
  • Oil prices soften on profit taking after hitting 2016 highs (Reuters)
  • Wooing Sanders supporters will be tough task for Clinton (Reuters)
  • Clinton ally Warren weighs potential VP role, sees hurdles (Reuters)
  • Rise of the Machines Fueled by Higher Asia Manufacturing Wages (WSJ)

Tiffany Shares Slide After Biggest Sales Drop In 6 Quarters, EPS Miss, Guidance Cut

Tiffany reported its steepest sales drop in six quarters, missing analysts' estimates, as a strong dollar discouraged tourists from buying its high-end jewelry and ate into revenue from markets outside the United States. "We faced numerous challenges, including continued pressure from foreign tourist spending in Europe, the U.S. and Asia, particularly in Hong Kong."

Walmart Surges 9% After Beating EPS Expectations, Comp Sales

In what is the traditional end to earnings season, moments ago the second biggest employer in the US after the government, Walmart reported results which after several quarters of disappointment solidly beat expectations, reporting Q1 EPS of $0.98 (down 4.9% Y/Y), higher than the $0.88 expected even as revenue of $115.9 billion (up 0.9% Y/Y) missed expectations of $133.3 billion. However, the reason the stock is soaring over 8% in the premarket is WMT's big beat in comp stores, which same store sales rising 1.0%, double the 0.5% expected, driven by the sixth consecutive quarter of positive traffic, up 1.5%. Comps ex-fuel rose 0.8%, also double the 0.4% expected.

The Frogs Are Boiling Again - Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot

Wall Street’s cockeyed faith that another stock market bailout is on the way rests on the idea of a post-election return to fiscal stimulus - since even the casino punters now see that the jig is up on ZIRP, NIRP and QE. Here’s the problem. When General (Paul) Ryan gets together in the oval office with either Hillbama or the Donald next February the budget projections will already be deep in trillion dollar deficits under current policy. Therefore what will get stimulated, if anything, is a colossal political firestorm over who bankrupted the nation. There will not be another fiscal stimulus this go round. This time the frogs of Wall Street will be left to boil.

April Retail Sales Plunge Most Since 2005

Something ugly this way comes. As we noted last week, despite proclamations that any weakness in US spending or economic data is merely seasonal or transitory, BofA's credit and debit card spending data revealed that sales were notably weak. Today we get further confirmation of what Retail ETF investors have been seeing for a while as Johnson-Redbook reported a 2.8% plunge in Same-Store-Sales - the worst start to an April since 2005.

Chipotle Pivots To Sell Burgers; Market Not Impressed

Chipotle has had enough of being an e-coli associated Mexican food company: according to Bloomberg, the fast food (and just as fast food poisoning company) may be getting into the burger business. For now, however, the market is less than impressed.

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Making Sense of Cents

Forex remains to be the largest market in the world and the least understood.  Central banks have more influence on global markets than any other force.  In other words, monetary policy is the ONLY economic indicator(s) investors should be watching, because let's face it, if the Fed raised rates to 10% like they should do and called in all that QE money, stocks would collapse.

But yet Forex remains a mystery, something that someone may have mentioned or you heard about.. wait FX is a TV channel?  or graphics?  a movie?

There Is No Spending Growth

Since 2005, 44% of retailers, on average, beat their same store estimates each month. In February, only 14.3% did...

The Absurd Notion Of "Transitory" Is Dead

If it looks like a recession from so many different angles, chances are very good that it is. It is so consistent that even the stock market has finally awoken. The problem, the real problem, is as Nordstrom’s struggles suggest with inventory – it is only beginning. The OECD, for one, is right to be suddenly alarmed, though, as usual, it would have been far more helpful and relevant last year instead of further fostering the absurd notion of "transitory." Like Bernanke was in his turn, Yellen will be the last to admit it. Sadly for her, she can’t eat the unemployment rate.

Frontrunning: February 19

  • Stocks knocked back as oil rally falters (Reuters)
  • Still no deal for Britain on EU reforms after all-night talks (Reuters)
  • Oil Falls Near $30 as Rising U.S. Crude Stockpiles Expand Glut (BBG)
  • PBOC to Raise Reserve Ratios for Banks That Don't Meet Criteria (BBG)
  • China’s Top Securities Regulator to Step Down (WSJ)

Wal-Mart Tumbles Despite Earnings Beat After Revenue And Same Store Sales Miss, Guidance Cut

The bad news for the company which many thought had "kitchen sinked" all near-term disappointment three months ago was that revenue of $129.7 billion missed expectations by $900 million, that Free Cash Flow declined notably to $15.9 billion for the full year compared to $16.4 billion the year before, that Operating Income continues to drop far faster than revenues, either with or without FX suggesting costs increases are far greater than the offsetting topline and that it slashed guidance on the top-line saying that net sales growth is now "expected to be relatively flat, which compares to the previous estimate for growth of 3 to 4 percent on a constant currency basis."

Chipotle To Close All Stores Next Month For Meeting On How Not To Poison People

America's favorite "fast casual" darling is set to hold a kind of ad hoc “try not to poison anyone” meeting on February 8, when all stores will close “for a few hours” so that management can “discuss some of the changes [its] making to enhance food safety, to talk about the restaurant’s role in all of that and to answer questions from employees.”

Frontrunning: January 13

  • China trade surprise brings relief (Reuters)
  • Obama knocks Trump, voices optimism (Reuters)
  • Republican Candidates Criticize Obama’s State of the Union Address (WSJ)
  • Republicans and Democrats Agree: We Hate Wall Street (WSJ)
  • Oil rises for first time in eight sessions on China, U.S. stocks draw (Reuters)
  • U.S. Exports First Freely Traded Oil in 40 Years (WSJ)
  • China Imports Record Crude as Price Crash Accelerates Buying (BBG)

Priced For Perfection - Why This Burrito Market Is Heading For A Fall

In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.