Same Store Sales

Restaurant Industry In Gloom As Number Of Americans Eating Out Tumbles

When it comes to one of America's favorite pastimes, eating out, the "recovery" fiction peddlers have finally won: according to the latest Restaurant sales data, not only has the number of Americans eating in restaurants tumbled, but restaurant operators are the gloomiest they have been about the state of their industry since the financial crisis.

Did US Consumers Finally Tap Out? BofA Internal Card Data Shows Significant July Spending Slowdown

According to Bank of America's internal aggregated credit and debit card data, consumer spending slowed in July, with retail sales ex-autos down 0.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis. As the bank concludes, "In our view, this sets up for a softer Census Bureau retail sales report on  Friday – we would not be surprised to see either disappointing July sales and/or a downward revision to June."

US Consumers No Longer "Eating Out" - Restaurant Guest Counts Tumble To Three Year Lows

Knapp-Track casual dining same store sales for the month of June were down 2.3% with guest counts down 4.8%. These results compare against same store sales that were up 1.5% and guest counts that were down 1.1% in June 2015.  Sales and guest counts in June were the weakest since January 2014 (more than two years) and February 2013 (more than three years), respectively. On a two-year basis, same store sales were down 0.8% with guest counts down 5.9%.

Frontrunning: June 9

  • European Bond Yields Hit Record Lows as Stocks Tumble (WSJ)
  • Oil prices soften on profit taking after hitting 2016 highs (Reuters)
  • Wooing Sanders supporters will be tough task for Clinton (Reuters)
  • Clinton ally Warren weighs potential VP role, sees hurdles (Reuters)
  • Rise of the Machines Fueled by Higher Asia Manufacturing Wages (WSJ)

Tiffany Shares Slide After Biggest Sales Drop In 6 Quarters, EPS Miss, Guidance Cut

Tiffany reported its steepest sales drop in six quarters, missing analysts' estimates, as a strong dollar discouraged tourists from buying its high-end jewelry and ate into revenue from markets outside the United States. "We faced numerous challenges, including continued pressure from foreign tourist spending in Europe, the U.S. and Asia, particularly in Hong Kong."

Walmart Surges 9% After Beating EPS Expectations, Comp Sales

In what is the traditional end to earnings season, moments ago the second biggest employer in the US after the government, Walmart reported results which after several quarters of disappointment solidly beat expectations, reporting Q1 EPS of $0.98 (down 4.9% Y/Y), higher than the $0.88 expected even as revenue of $115.9 billion (up 0.9% Y/Y) missed expectations of $133.3 billion. However, the reason the stock is soaring over 8% in the premarket is WMT's big beat in comp stores, which same store sales rising 1.0%, double the 0.5% expected, driven by the sixth consecutive quarter of positive traffic, up 1.5%. Comps ex-fuel rose 0.8%, also double the 0.4% expected.

The Frogs Are Boiling Again - Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot

Wall Street’s cockeyed faith that another stock market bailout is on the way rests on the idea of a post-election return to fiscal stimulus - since even the casino punters now see that the jig is up on ZIRP, NIRP and QE. Here’s the problem. When General (Paul) Ryan gets together in the oval office with either Hillbama or the Donald next February the budget projections will already be deep in trillion dollar deficits under current policy. Therefore what will get stimulated, if anything, is a colossal political firestorm over who bankrupted the nation. There will not be another fiscal stimulus this go round. This time the frogs of Wall Street will be left to boil.

April Retail Sales Plunge Most Since 2005

Something ugly this way comes. As we noted last week, despite proclamations that any weakness in US spending or economic data is merely seasonal or transitory, BofA's credit and debit card spending data revealed that sales were notably weak. Today we get further confirmation of what Retail ETF investors have been seeing for a while as Johnson-Redbook reported a 2.8% plunge in Same-Store-Sales - the worst start to an April since 2005.

Chipotle Pivots To Sell Burgers; Market Not Impressed

Chipotle has had enough of being an e-coli associated Mexican food company: according to Bloomberg, the fast food (and just as fast food poisoning company) may be getting into the burger business. For now, however, the market is less than impressed.

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Making Sense of Cents

Forex remains to be the largest market in the world and the least understood.  Central banks have more influence on global markets than any other force.  In other words, monetary policy is the ONLY economic indicator(s) investors should be watching, because let's face it, if the Fed raised rates to 10% like they should do and called in all that QE money, stocks would collapse.

But yet Forex remains a mystery, something that someone may have mentioned or you heard about.. wait FX is a TV channel?  or graphics?  a movie?

There Is No Spending Growth

Since 2005, 44% of retailers, on average, beat their same store estimates each month. In February, only 14.3% did...

The Absurd Notion Of "Transitory" Is Dead

If it looks like a recession from so many different angles, chances are very good that it is. It is so consistent that even the stock market has finally awoken. The problem, the real problem, is as Nordstrom’s struggles suggest with inventory – it is only beginning. The OECD, for one, is right to be suddenly alarmed, though, as usual, it would have been far more helpful and relevant last year instead of further fostering the absurd notion of "transitory." Like Bernanke was in his turn, Yellen will be the last to admit it. Sadly for her, she can’t eat the unemployment rate.