Every Fed watcher’s favorite word these days is “lift-off”. As if the Fed’s first rate increase, whenever that comes to pass, is the ignition of some giant Saturn V rocket that will inexorably carry interest rates up, up, and away. Please. This is Narrative creation … really, Narrative abuse … of the first order. The next time you read or hear someone use the word “lift-off”, I’m begging you to remember Jim Mora’s classic press conference when he was asked about the Colts’ chances of making the play-offs, because it’s a dead ringer for what Janet Yellen is saying in her heart of hearts.
Back in 2011 Goldman, when the FDIC-insured bank holding company with no deposits, was slapped with the biggest at the time SEC penalty for shorting CDOs it had sold to clients, it started a trend of scapegoating all its evils on a lone, then 20-something individual, Fabrice Tourre, who seemingly had "worked alone" and whose actions were not supervised by anyone: the chain of responsibility started and ended with him. Naturally, nobody went to jail. A few years later, stuck in the biggest scandal of its post-bankruppcy existence involving over 20 million recalls in just the first 6 months of 2014 alone, GM has decided that what worked for Goldman should work for it too, and as the WSJ reports, is "pinning of a decadelong failure to recall defective cars on a lone engineer." Meet Raymond DeGiorgio, said lone engineer.
Over the weekend we titled our summary of GM's unprecedented avalanche of recalls so far in 2014 - the year in which the company's criminal practice of covering up its faulty products became a congressional scandal - as follows: "GM Set To Surpass Total Recall Record This Year." Three days later we are happy to report that while Detroit, we not only have a big recall problem, we also have a new record, after moments ago GM just announced another 4 recalls affecting 2.4 million cars. This brings the total number of vehicle investigations since the start of the year to 35, and with today's four latest fiascos, has initiated a whopping 29 recalls. More importantly, this also means that the number of domestic recalls rises to 13.6 million, smashing the previous record of 11.8 million recalls in 2004, and brings the number of global recalls to 15.2 million: or a stunning 56% greater than the 9.7 million cars GM sold in all of 2013!
$35 Million - that's what the Chevy Cobalt "ignition switch recall" probe fines cost GM based on The Department of Transport's maximum penalty... or 0.02% of their last 12 months revenues:
- GM TO PAY UP TO $35M PENALTY ON COBALT PROBE, DOT SAYS
- DOT:CONSENT ORDER REQUIRE GM TO SUBMIT REPORTS, MEET W/ NHTSA
- DOT SAYS GM TO MAKE INTERNAL CHANGES TO REVIEW OF ISSUES
So the tax-payer bailed-out firm is paying the government a de minimus fine for killing taxpayers? (and the DoT now urges Congress to raise the maximum penalty to $300 million) Full statement below
When "new" GM emerged from bankruptcy, in addition to losing billions of taxpayer funds so the government can buy a few hundred thousand labor union votes, the narrative sold to the public is that the company is a new, and vastly improved version of the legacy monster that went bankrupt in 2009, and instead of worrying about its balance sheet, the company would have the freedom to innovate and impress new customers. However, following the recent spate of scandals rocking the "new" GM, the only thing that the bankruptcy appears to have done is pushed its litigation libailities into the pool of prepetition unsecured claims. As for the quality, well, not so much, which explains why recalls are now becoming a daily event such as the most recent one which as we learn today involves a whopping 3 million cars and trucks worldwide to fix five different safety problems that have triggered hundreds of complaints and some injuries, but no deaths. The bttom line: this most recent recall GM brings the total number of recalls for 2014 alone to 24 and includes 12.8 million vehicles worldwide,
- Alibaba files for what may be biggest tech IPO (Reuters)
- Early Tap of 401(k) Replaces Homes as American Piggy Bank (BBG)
- Developers Turn Former Office Buildings Into High-End Apartments (WSJ)
- Thai court orders Yingluck Shinawatra to step down as PM (Guardian)
- German industry orders fell 2.8% in March, the biggest drop in one and a half years (RTE)
- Ukraine Bulls Scatter as Death Toll Mounts (BBG)
- China Property Slump Adds Danger to Local Finances (BBG)
- Stein Says Fed May See Bouts of Volatility as It Approaches Exit (BBG)
- Putin playing the long game over Russian kin in Ukraine (Reuters)
- U.S.-Russia Relations Come Full Circle After Ukraine (WSJ)
- Japan PM makes offering to Yasukuni Shrine, angers China, South Korea (Reuters)
- In Gold Miners' Talks, Scale Is Crucial: Combined Barrick-Newmont Would Be Able to Trim Costs (WSJ)
- SEC Said to Weigh Shining Light on Brokers’ Stock Routing (BBG)... and protmply unweigh it
- Exelon Beating Facebook in S&P 500 After Valuation Scare (BBG)
- Court Case May Help Define 'Insider Trading' (WSJ)
- Spanish banks face tough rivalry in small companies bet (Reuters)
- China premier warns on economic slowdown as data fans stimulus talk (Reuters)
- Li says China defaults ‘unavoidable’ (FT)
- Russia Said to Ready for Iran-Style Sanctions in Worst Case (BBG)
- Rescue the tapes from the Bank of England’s dustbins (FT)
- Obama Warns Putin of Cost to Russia for Annexing Ukraine (BBG)
- The TVIX is back: Credit Suisse VIX Note That Ran Amok in 2012 Back on Top (BBG)
- U.S. Risks National Blackout From Small-Scale Attack (WSJ)
- U.S. Investigators Suspect Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours (WSJ)
- Malaysia says no evidence missing plane flew hours after losing contact (Reuters)
- Missed Alarms and 40 Million Stolen Credit Card Numbers: How Target Blew It (BBG)
- Death Toll in NYC Building Blast Rises to Six; Search Continues (BBG)
If the Federal Reserve is trying to force feed us prosperity then the inevitable blowback will be adversity. If the Fed is trying to compel the most dramatic economic recovery in history, then the blowback may well be the deepest depression in history. If the Fed is trying to enforce confidence and optimism then the blowback will be fear and despair. If the Fed is trying to force consumers to spend then the blowback will be a collapse in consumer confidence.
"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." - Robert Louis Stevenson
We sincerely hope that we are completely wrong here, that we are missing something, that there is a flaw in our logic. However until we can locate such a flaw we must trust the technical case for treating this Fed force-fed rally in the stock market as something that will end badly.
Being poor is like a game of poker where if you lose, the other players get to screw you. And if you win, the dealer screws you. A bunch of you reading this are among the 45 million “working poor” in America, and if you’re not, you know somebody who is. People are quick to tell you to pick yourself up by your bootstraps and just stop being poor. What they don’t understand is the series of intricate financial traps that makes that incredibly difficult...
- Two weeks ago here: The Latest Greek "Bailout" In A Nutshell: AAA-Rated Euro Countries To Fund Massive Hedge Fund Profits... and now on Bloomberg: "Hedge Funds Win as Europe Will Pay More for Greek Bonds" (BBG)
- Oracle sends shareholders cash as tax uncertainty looms (Reuters)
- GOP Makes Counteroffer In Cliff Talks (WSJ)
- Iran says captures U.S. drone in its airspace (Reuters)
- IMF drops opposition to capital controls (FT)
- Vogue Editor Wintour Said to Be Possible Appointee as U.K. Envoy (BBG)
- Juncker Stepping Down French Finance Minister to Head Euro Group? (Spiegel)
- Australia cuts rates to three-year low (FT)
- Europe’s banking union ambitions under strain (Reuters)
- EU Nations Eye New ECB Bank Supervisor Amid German Doubts (BBG)
- Frankfurt's Ambitions Get Cut Back (WSJ)
- House Republicans Propose $2.2 Trillion Fiscal-Cliff Plan (BBG)
"Saturn makes cars people want to buy?!?" The likable car salesman on the commercial proclaims. Yeah, but not for long. Roger Penske, in a deal that made the mega-buck car magnate look like a once knight in shining reorganization, walks away amid supply and production concerns.