Saudi Arabia
Why Energy Investors Are Hoping Saudi Arabia And Iran's Oil Price Forecasts Are Dead Wrong
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 18:57 -0500"At current prices we estimate that valuations for the oil and gas group reflect an implied Brent crude oil price in the range of $65-70/bbl while natural gas leveraged companies reflect a Henry Hub natural gas price in the range of $3.00/Mcf."
The Oil Market
Submitted by EconMatters on 12/29/2015 10:17 -0500I bet OPEC never factored into their analysis the lifting of the US Oil Exporting Ban in 2015 after being a non-starter for so many decades.
Safe On The Sidelines - 405 Days And Counting
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 08:46 -0500The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.
Frontrunning: December 29
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 07:32 -0500- The World's Richest People Got Poorer This Year (BBG)
- Oil hovers near 11-year lows on abundant supply, slowing demand (Reuters)
- Oil-Producing States Battered as Tax-Gushing Wells Are Shut Down (BBG)
- A Bold Few Traders Earn Billions Flouting Rivals (WSJ)
- Islamic State ruling aims to settle who can have sex with female slaves (Reuters)
- Winter Storm Snarls Republican Presidential Traffic (BBG)
- Donald Trump Urges Supporters to the Polls (BBG)
Global Stocks Rebound, US Stocks To Reopen Back In The Green For 2015 As Oil Halts Slide
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 06:58 -0500Santa Claus is cutting it close: after stocks closed down yesterday, and just fractionally red for the year, the jolly old gift-giver (who now has activist investors breathing down his neck) has just three trading days to push if not stocks then the market into the green for the year. And so far, so good, with US equity futures rising by 8 points or 0.4%, on the back of some modest renewed Dollar strength but mostly on oil, which after yesterday's big slide, has managed to stem the decline and is up fractionally, just under $37, along with other commodities if not copper, which falls for second day.
Something Just Snapped In Saudi Arabia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 01:53 -0500Following yesterday's budget (deficit) and the 'sacrifice-the-people's-comfort-for-the-death-of-US-Shale' plan that we detailed here, it appears market concerns about Saudi Arabia's forward-looking health are rising. As Bloomberg reports, USDSAR 12-month forwards jumped 250pts (the most since December 2007) to 725bps (the highest level since March 1999) implying expectations of a looming de-pegged, devaluation. Perhaps just as worrying is this is the same pattern that played out in August as Yuan weakness sparked HIBOR stress, leading to SAR forward weakness and then US equity market collapse.
2015 - The Year Of FX Reserve Rundowns (Or Playing The "Fool's Game")
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 20:40 -05002015 was the year of considerable FX drawdown as desperate EM central banks attempted to rescue themselves from reality. As Barry Eichengreen noted, "Intervening to support an exchange rate that’s fundamentally overvalued is a fool’s game and a no-win situation, akin to a sovereign attempting to sustain an unsustainable debt burden rather than yielding to inevitable restructuring."
The Odds Are Never In Your Favor
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 20:05 -0500Even though the odds are never in our favor, there is still hope. Not everyone has to make the extreme sacrifice in order to contribute to the revolution. There are thousands of small acts which will weaken the establishment: "Don’t be a slave to debt. Live beneath your means and accumulate some physical silver and gold. Don’t vote for candidates selected by the vested interests. Spread the message of liberty and freedom to anyone who will listen. Think critically. Do not trust your government. Prepare for the inevitable collapse of this rotten, fetid, corrupt paradigm."
Saudis Boost Gas Prices by 40%, Dismantle Welfare State To Wage War With U.S. Shale
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 14:02 -0500In a bid to shore up its finances in the face of self-inflicted oil wounds, Saudi Arabia is shaking up the welfare state by raising prices on everything from domestic fuel to water. Apparently, persisting in the war of attrition against the US shale complex is paramount - even if it means making life harder for everyday Saudis so the monarchy can buy itself some budget breathing room.
Oil May Drop Under $20 In The Short-Term, But What Is Its Price Floor?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 10:31 -0500The sustainable floor price for oil is a Brent price in the range of $30-35/bbl. Oil prices could temporarily fall below that level; however, companies would begin to shut-in production as variable production costs would exceed cash flow for some projects
Frontrunning: December 28
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 07:42 -0500- The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere (BBG)
- Oil falls toward $37, near 11-year low, as excess supply weighs (Reuters)
- End of easy money for mini-refiners splitting U.S. shale? (Reuters)
- Shale's Running Out of Survival Tricks as OPEC Ramps Up Pressure (Reuters)
- 'Safe’ Puerto Rican Debt Stirs Worries (WSJ)
- These Will Be Wall Street's Most In-Demand Jobs Next Year (BBG)
How The Public Get Suckered By "News" Media Ignoring Reality
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2015 19:50 -0500The aristocracy’s control over all the mainstream ‘news’ is ironclad - and this includes the political magazines as well as ‘intellectual’ magazines. American ‘news’ media stifle democracy in America; they’re not part of democracy, in America. They’re like poison that’s presented as being ‘medicine’ instead. Suckers don’t just swallow it; they come back for more of that propaganda. A press like this makes it impossible for there to be intelligent, informed, rather than misinformed and/or stupid, voting in national political elections in the United States.
Warmongering Pays - US Foreign Arms Sales Soar 35%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2015 16:55 -0500If ever there was a clearer indication of America's "need for war" it was the latest Durable Goods orders data, which confirmed, absent defense spending, the US economy is in a tail-spin. However, as NYTimes reports, foreign arms sales by the United States jumped by almost $10 billion in 2014, about 35 percent, even as the global weapons market remained flat and competition among suppliers increased, thanks to multibillion-dollar agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
ISIS Head Calls For Global Jihad; Here Are Some Muslim Responses
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2015 14:35 -0500"I've got Star Wars on Sunday, maybe later"...
Bank of Montreal Asks If "Oil Prices Could Collapse To $20"; Answers: "Yes"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2015 13:57 -0500Q. Could oil prices collapse to $20?
A. The short answer is ‘yes.’ We believe that crude oil prices could fall further unless global oil production is reduced. We believe that the weakness in crude oil prices reflects a combination of fundamental factors and financial flows. Fundamentally there is simply too much oil... the current supply-demand balance is not sustainable; something has to give.



