Saxo Bank

Euphoria Returns: European Stocks Soar, Dax Hits Record; S&P Futs Surge In "French Relief Rally"

Risk is definitely on this morning as European shares soar, led by French stocks a new record high in Germany's Dax, and S&P futures up 1.2% after a "French relief rally" in which the first round of the country’s presidential elections prompted investors to bet that establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron will win a runoff vote next month. Asian stocks also surged, expect for China, which suffered its biggest drop of the year, down 1.4%, ending the streak of losses no greater than 1% going back to December.

WTI Crude Crashes Below $50 As Hedgies Lose Faith In OPEC

Oil is headed for its biggest weekly loss since early March as signs that OPEC will continue with output reductions are offset by growing U.S. production and inventory gluts. Having tried and failed to spark some momentum yesterday (via Saudi jawboning and Goldman confidence), WTI Crude just plunged below $50 for the first time since March.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Eight Reasons Why The Dutch Election Matters

If 2016 was the year of the breakthrough, 2017 could see the status-quo fightback, with Europe likely to form the battleground ahead of pivotal elections. And, while next month's general election in The Netherlands may not be the biggest showdown of the year, the outcome could set the tone for 2017.

The German 'Anti-Trump' That Could Beat Merkel

German politics = boring politics – in recent decades this equation has generally held true. And yet, with the new Europe we face, that perhaps is no longer the best thing for them to be. Suddenly politics in Germany has become very interesting and the race for the chancellorship looks open again.

May Is Just A Pawn - Trump's Real Target Is Merkel

PM Theresa May flies into Washington for high-level talks this Friday which will no doubt solidify the 'special relationship' that exists between the US and the UK. While the illusion of a mutually beneficial meeting will be spun (and May will get concessions from Trump who is neither anti-trade nor even particularly anti-globalisation) any concessions she wins will be totally in the context of Trump's coming battle with the European Union.

Oil Tumbles After Unexpected Crude Inventory Build

A mixed bag of crude draw and gasoline builds from API combined with IEA comments on rising US Shale output offset by Saudi jawboning about more production cuts possible has pushedoil green before today's DOE data. However, oil prices tumbled when DOE printed an unexpected 2.347mm barrel crude build (1mm draw expected) and another major build in gasoline inventories. US crude production remains at 9-month highs.

China On Alert For "Death Of Night" Trump Tweets

"There are some really unexpected things happening with the Trump administration and there are no doubt a lot more people paying attention to Twitter at 2am in the night... We are operating in a very different environment where markets are reacting and adapting to changes that have not been seen for a good decade or more."

Trump Takes On The Deep State

"The deep state" is shorthand for a force within Washington that is able to guide the US' ship of state over periods of time longer than presidential terms, and at times despite the stated intentions of elected officials. If Trump has indeed embroiled himself in a conflict with this entity, then, what does that mean for his policy plans and for the post-Inauguration markets?