Saxo Bank

Traders Yawn After Fed's "Great Unwind"

One day after the Fed unveiled the "Great Unwinding" the reaction has been largely muted, with S&P futures unchanged, near all-time highs as European and Asian shares rose modestly while the dollar edged marginally lower through the European session after yesterday’s post-Fed surge.

WTI/RBOB Sink After Big Crude Build, Production Jump Offsets Greatest Gasoline Inventory Draw In History

WTI and RBOB prices are higher this morning following API's reported the biggest gasoline draw in history (compared to EIA data). Of course, disruptions (Florida demand and Texas supply) remain dominant but DOE reports a massive 8.4mm draw in Gasoline inventories - the biggest draw ever. The reaction in prices is anti-climactic as production rebounded and crude built dramatically to offset the exuberance.

Next Up For Venezuela: PDVSA's Inevitable Default

"By cutting access to an essential source of funding, the Trump administration is precipitating the default of PDVSA and, given the key economic role of the company, of Venezuela."

Gasoline Prices Tumble As Refiners Resume Operations

RBOB Gasoline futures tumbled to their lowest level in almost a week overnnight as several US Gulf Coast refineries reported their plans to restart operations after the devastation of Hurricane Harvey forced them to shutdown.

US Crude Production At Cycle Highs As Rig Count Stabilizes; Desperate Saudis Jawbone Deeper Cuts To Come

A tough week for crude oil, which tumbled after algos tagged $50 stops yesterday following the biggest gasoline inventory build in 7 months. While the US oil rig count has stopped rising in the last few weeks, production continues to hit cycle highs stalling prices, but the Saudis are not giving up on their incessant jawboning - hinting that "deeper cuts" are still on the table.

Oil & Gas Earnings Expectations Are Collapsing

Much of the recent ebulient narrative about equity markets has been based on the promise of an earnings rebound - due to beneficial comps in the oil & gas sector. That narrative just hit a wall...

Banks Are Saving Stocks As FANG Flops Again, DAX Hits 2-Month Lows

Yesterday's 'dead cat bounce' in FANG stocks has been erased as broad-based weakness stemming from increasing recognition of hawkish central bank chatter is hitting stocks and bonds. Bank stocks bounce after stress test 'success' are saving some indices from bigger losses.

Steen Jakobsen: 60% Probability Of Recession In The Next 18 Months

"The 'credit impulse' -- defined as net new credit to GDP -- has gone negative in the world for the first time since the start of the Great Recession...the most likely period for [the recession] to happen would be end of this year because, of course, Trump has not delivered."