Shadow Banking

China's Credit Growth Is Freezing Up At The Worst Possible Time

With growth slowing in China, the question is will it continue into 2018, and will it lead to bulk commodity prices deflating? In short, due mainly to slower overall credit growth vs. prior bubbles (i.e., 2009, 2013, and 2016), a material slowdown in economic growth or asset values in China’s market is inevitable – barring another massive ramp-up in credit issuance...

China's Rise, America's Fall

"It is difficult to accept that such historic changes could occur. But, despite what some have claimed, rumors of history’s end have been greatly exaggerated. History is very much alive and happening to us, now... We are, as Chinese saying goes, living in interesting times."

The 4 Possible Channels For A Chinese Financial Crisis

An analysis by Victor Shih of Merics lays out 4 plausible scenarios of financial crisis in China: household defaults, shadow banking panic, capital flight, and a sudden stop of international lending. It finds that China’s greatest vulnerability resides in its dwindling foreign exchange reserve and escalating external debt, which can trigger a confluence of maxi-devaluation, external defaults, and sharp asset price depreciation.

Globalization Is Poverty: "The Endgame Is Painfully Obvious"

"The world’s central bankers’ club is set to get new leadership soon... but there is no sign that the economic religions they adhere to will be replaced, it’ll be centralization all the way, and if that fails, more centralization...The endgame of that process is painfully obvious way in advance."

China Announces RRR Cut Of At Least 50 bps; First Since February 2016

In a sign that China's ongoing attempts to delever the economy may have gone a bit too far, on Saturday morning China’s central bank announced a targeted reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, its first since February 2016 and which will go into effect in 2018, in an attempt to boost lending to struggling smaller firms and energize China's lacklustre private sector.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Odds Soar After WSJ Report Of Trump Meeting

Kevin Warsh's PredictIt odds to be the next Fed chair soared moments ago after the WSJ reported that President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with the former Fed governor on Thursday to discuss his potential nomination as the next Federal Reserve chairman.