Shadow Banking

Global Stocks Hit 21 Month Highs, Futures Point To New Record Ahead Of Inflation Data

The global "risk on" melt-up continues. After a modestly hawkish Yellen warned that every meeting is live, and refused to take March off the table, sending the dollar and yield higher and the S&P to fresh record highs, world stocks rose hitting a 21-month high on Wednesday with the dollar rising for the 11th straight day, the longest positive streak since July 2015.

How Long Can China's Debt Continue To Grow Before A Systemic Crisis Strikes?

How long can China's debt continue to grow before a Minsky moment or systemic debt crisis?  As the government continues to rely on credit-fuelled investment to offset downward pressures within the domestic economy and from a subdued global environment China's debt/GDP ratio is set to rise further. But how much higher can it rise? Here is UBS' attempt to answer the $64 trillion question.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

China Hits A Fork In The Road

There’s simply too much debt all throughout the system, and it’s due for a behemoth restructuring. You look at some of the numbers and graphs, and you wonder: what were they thinking?

Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite.  Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

Frontrunning: December 22

  • Fingerprints of Tunisian suspect in Berlin attack found on truck door (Reuters)
  • Germany Ill-Prepared for Terror Fight, Critics Say (WSJ)
  • Monte Paschi Will Need a Huge State Rescue (BBG)
  • Trump denounces attack, vows tough immigration plan (AP)
  • Trump’s New Appointments Shake Up Trade, Regulation (WSJ)

Frontrunning: December 21

  • Futures little changed after Dow, Nasdaq hit records (Reuters); Europe Stocks’ Rally Dims as Banks Drop; Oil Gains (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi says could run out of liquidity after four months (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Lose EU Case on Mortgage Interest Repayments (BBG)
  • Russia says trust needed for global oil output deal to be success (Reuters)
  • U.S. plays down absence from Moscow talks on Syria, says not 'sidelined' (Reuters)

S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop

It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as US traders walk in, S&P futures are again higher, proppeled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the USD rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the BOJ maintained its stimulus plan.