Economists, Military Strategists and Others Warned Us … Long Ago
What is the main culprit for the contraction in China's all important credit formation? In two words: shadow banking. As Bank of America summarizes "shadow banking is being tamed" because "the changing structure of TSF suggests that Beijing’s efforts in controlling some types of shadow banking have made some achievements. Two major drivers for the steep decline of TSF from Sept to Oct were the falling of non-discounted bills (down RMB241bn) and falling trust loans (down RMB22bn). By contrast, new corporate bonds were at RMB242bn, a sharp rise from RMB151bn in Sept." In other words, China's shadow banking not only ground to a halt, it actually continued moving in reverse!
Our world, our life, has been built on debt and propaganda for many years. They have kept us from noticing how poorly we are doing. But now a third element has entered the foundation of our societies, and it’s set to eat away at everything that has – barely – kept the entire edifice from crumbling apart. Deflation.
It could soon trigger the burst of the world's largest bubble
The Slaughter Continues: Hedge Funds Tumble In October, Turn Negative For 2014 Despite Central Bank SticksaveSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/03/2014 13:19 -0500
Another month, and year, another confirmation that under a centrally-planned Central Banking put regime, there is simply no need for the 2 and 20 industry.
"Perhaps sooner rather than later, investors must recognize that modern day inflation, while a necessary condition for survival, is not a sufficient condition for increasing wealth at a rate necessary to satisfy future liabilities associated with education, health care, and a satisfactory retirement. The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity."
As faces are filled with chocolate on All Hallow's Eve, we thought this evening's reading list should maintain the focus of "scary" ponderances now that the Federal Reserve has ended their latest monetary iterations.
We are not exactly sure which is scarier: that total financial assets amount to about 500% of world GDP or that about $75 trillion in financial leverage is just sitting there, completely unregulated and designed with one purpose in mind: to make billionaires into trillionaires (with taxpayers footing the bill of their failure).
Whocouldanode? Chinese GDP managed (thanks to record-breaking credit creation and QE-lite) to beat expectations of +7.2% and come in at +7.3% (still its slowest growth since April 2009). Notably this was the biggest decoupling from Bloomberg's high-frequency economic data forecast (i.e. real data) since May 2010. Despite weakness in Cement and Steel output, Industrial Production also managed to beat and actually improve (another miracle). Retail Sales missed expectations, rose only 11.6% YoY - its weakest since Feb 2006. Initial kneejerk is a lift in USDJPY, AUDJPY, TSY yields, and S&P and NKY futures... but that has now faded...
"Cavalry Won't Be Coming From The East" - China New Loans Jump But Not Nearly Enough, FX Reserves Drop Most On RecordSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/16/2014 09:50 -0500
"Higher credit aggregates can temporarily plug the monetary gaps, but ultimately this can only mean slower growth, less rapid price rises, ever more illiquid balance sheets (more 'revenues' tied up in receivables and a bigger gap between 'profits' and actual cash), and more recourse to financial trickery to stay afloat. Looks like lots more 'gold' exports to HK will be needed unless today's announcement that SAFE is to conduct an audit of 'trade finance' in Shenzhen manages to bung up that particular loophole! One other salient feature to note in China: QIII-14 non-household power consumption was only 2.5% ahead of QIII-13, just more than half of QII's relatively tardy 4.9% YOY rate. Just like the money numbers, not exactly consistent with 7.x% GDP and 8.x% IP Growth, one might think. If markets are awaiting the Cavalry, they won't be coming from the east - whatever the official data release tries to pretend."
The last time the stock market reached a fevered peak and began to wobble unexpectedly was August 2007. Markets were most definitely not in the classic “price discovery” business. Instead, the stock market had discovered the “goldilocks economy." But what is profoundly different this time is that the Fed is out of dry powder. Its can’t slash the discount rate as Bernanke did in August 2007 or continuously reduce it federal funds target on a trip from 6% all the way down to zero. Nor can it resort to massive balance sheet expansion. That card has been played and a replay would only spook the market even more. So this time is different. The gamblers are scampering around the casino fixing to buy the dip as soon as white smoke wafts from the Eccles Building. But none is coming. For the first time in 25- years, the Wall Street gamblers are home alone.
Late into Friday's major market selloff, a completely unfounded rumor emerged out of nowhere, seeking to rekindle the BTFD spirits, that with central bank intervention from both the BOJ and ECB already priced in, and with the Fed still in taper mode (if not for much longer should the S&P dump accelerate), that the last central-planner wildcard, China, would join the fray and a major monetary gusher would come out of Beijing over the weekend to halt the slide. Alas, we have bad news for said BTFDers: just hours before futures are set to open on Sunday afternoon, the chief economist at China’s central bank said Saturday that he doesn’t see any reason for large-scale fiscal or monetary stimulus “in the foreseeable future” despite slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy and disagreements about the depth and timing of economic overhauls.... Part of China’s “new normal,” he said, is that “big stimulus” won’t be called for every time growth decelerates. “And secondly, the new norm will involve a lot of rebalancing in terms of changing the economic structure.”
What if there was some degrees of freedom in the centrally planned capital markets that rational, non-emotional and non-ideologically-laden thinking could shed light on ? Here is such an attempt
Yesterday, in a periodic repeat of what he says every 6 or so months, Jamie Dimon - devoid of other things to worry about - warned once again about the dangers hidden within the shadow banking system (the last time he warned about the exact same thing was in April of this year). The throat cancer patient and JPM CEO was speaking at the Institute of International Finance membership meeting in Washington, D.C., and delivered a mostly upbeat message: in fact when he said that the industry was "very close to resolving too big to fail" we couldn't help but wonder if JPM would spin off Chase or Bear Stearns first. However, when he was asked what keeps him up at night, he said non-bank lending poses a danger "because no one is paying attention to it." He said the system is "huge" and "growing." Dimon is right that the problem is huge and growing: according to the IMF which just two days earlier released an exhaustive report on the topic, shadow banking (which does not include the $600 trillion in notional mostly interest rate swap derivatives) amounts to over $70 trillion globally.