Shadow Banking

Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite.  Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

Frontrunning: December 22

  • Fingerprints of Tunisian suspect in Berlin attack found on truck door (Reuters)
  • Germany Ill-Prepared for Terror Fight, Critics Say (WSJ)
  • Monte Paschi Will Need a Huge State Rescue (BBG)
  • Trump denounces attack, vows tough immigration plan (AP)
  • Trump’s New Appointments Shake Up Trade, Regulation (WSJ)

Frontrunning: December 21

  • Futures little changed after Dow, Nasdaq hit records (Reuters); Europe Stocks’ Rally Dims as Banks Drop; Oil Gains (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi says could run out of liquidity after four months (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Lose EU Case on Mortgage Interest Repayments (BBG)
  • Russia says trust needed for global oil output deal to be success (Reuters)
  • U.S. plays down absence from Moscow talks on Syria, says not 'sidelined' (Reuters)

S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop

It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as US traders walk in, S&P futures are again higher, proppeled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the USD rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the BOJ maintained its stimulus plan.

Fed's Kashkari Releases Plan To End "Too Big To Fail", Compares Banks To Terrorists

In the latest reminder that 7 years after the financial crisis, the US banking system still remains a systemic risk, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari today released four-step plan to end too-big-to-fail problem. The reason for the proposal: America's "biggest banks continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to our economy" and "One analogy that helps highlight the trade-off of costs and benefits is the risk of terrorism."

Waking Up In Hillary Clinton's America

With less than two weeks to go before E-day -- despite the Trumptilian upheaval of the last year -- the high probability of a Clinton win means the establishment remains intact. When we awaken on November 9th, it will undoubtedly be dawn in Hillary Clinton’s America and that potentially means four years of an economic dystopia that will (as would Donald Trump’s version of the same) leave many Americans rightfully anxious about their economic futures.

Bitcoin Soars As China Launches Crackdown On Wealth-Management Products

The most recent burst in bitcoin activity, which sent it surging by over $20 overnight, has little to do with any moves in the official Chinese currency, which recently rebounded modestly tracking the recent dip in the dollar, and is likely attributable to a long overdue crackdown on China's Wealth-management products, a key component of China’s "shadow banking" system.

Billionaire Clinton "Hillblazer" Pushes New Tax That Funnels Middle Class Money To Wall Street

Wall Street is maneuvering to propose and implement a new retirement tax on Americans under a Hillary Clinton Administration. Leading the charge is billionaire financial oligarch Tony James, who is COO of private equity giant Blackstone. Mr. James is a generous contributor to Hillary Clinton’s Presidential run, and is listed as a “Hillblazer” by her campaign for having raised at least $100,000 toward her candidacy.

China Injects Economy With A Quarter Trillion In Debt In One Month, But The Full Story Is Much Scarier

"From a growth rate perspective, the speed of credit expansion is alarming. The current pace of credit growth in China is realistically in a range between 19% and 20%, well above the reported official TSF growth of 12.4% and new loan growth of 13.0% in September. Relative to GDP, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently in a range from 260% to 275% of GDP as of September 2016" - Barclays

The (Dollar) Straw That Breaks The Camel's Back Of Political Correctness

Political risks in Europe are on the rise as the once prosperous middle class are forgotten, both financially (cannot compete with low cost Chinese workers) and culturally (if you do not like what is happening to your neighborhood you are a deplorable and irredeemable racist bigot and we do not need to listen to you). Losing life savings as deposits are bailed in left and right will be the straw that bring down any pretense of political correctness.