What has worked for much of the last two years, and judging by today's epic squeeze in stocks, is still working... is to bet against the most extreme positioning. So, on that basis, the following rather contrarian pairs trade should be ripe for major convergence...
Warren Buffett once noted, Gold doesn’t do anything “but look at you.” However, the fact of the matter is that Gold has dramatically outperformed the stock market for the better part of 40 years.
Back in October, when European inflation shocked market observers after it tumbled to a then (revised)low of 0.7%, the reaction by the ECB was to shock everyone and lower rates by 25 bps - a completely unexpected move. Earlier today, Europe shocked everyone once again after it reported that annual Eurozone consumer inflation in March tumbled from 0.7% to a paltry 0.5%, the lowest level since November 2009, below already the depressingly low 0.6% forecast, driven primarily by energy costs which tumbled 2.1% courtesy of Japan continuing to export deflation (where are energy costs soaring? Look at the price of natgas in Japan for a hint).
Let the fun begin.
“Too Big To Fail” … Fails
This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper. ~ T. S. Eliot
Russia has increased its gold holdings by 7.247 tonnes to 1,042 tonnes in February. Turkey and Kazakhstan also raised their bullion reserves, data from the International Monetary Fund showed today. Turkey's gold holdings rose 9.292 tonnes to 497.869 tonnes, the data showed. Many analysts are ignoring the important context of today's new geopolitical backdrop. Russia alone has some $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves - mostly in U.S. dollars. If they were to diversify just 5%, worth some $20 billion, of those reserves into gold - it would be equal to nearly 500 tonnes of gold or nearly 25% of global annual production. It will be interesting to see what Russian demand is in March and indeed in the coming months. Sanctions could lead to materially higher demand from the Russian central bank, Bank Rossii.
Curious how China imported a record amount of physical gold in 2013 without in the process sending the price of gold to new record highs? Here is the answer...
A dispassionate look at the main considerations for investors in the week ahead.
In the aftermath of yesterday's key market event, the FOMC's $10 billion tapering and elimination of QE with "QualG", not to mention the "dots" and the "6 month" comment, the USD has been on fire against all key pairs, with the EURUSD sliding below 1.38, a 150 pip move in one day which should at least give Mario Draghi some comfort, but more importantly sending the USDJPY soaring to 102.500 even as US equity futures continue to slide, and not to mention the Nikkei which tumbled -1.7% to just above 14,000 overnight. Perhaps the biggest take home message for traders from yesterday is that the Yen carry trade correlation to the Emini is now dead if only for the time being until DE Shaw and Virtu recalibrate their all-important correlation signal algos. The other big news overnight was the plunge in the Yuan, tumbling 0.5%, 6.2286, up 343 pips and crushing countless speculators now that the "max vega" point has been passed. Expect under the radar news about insolvent trading desks over the next few days, as numerous mega levered FX traders, who had bet on continued CNY appreciation are quietly carted out the back door. Elsewhere, gold and other commodities continue to be hit on rising fear the plunging CNY will accelerate the unwind of Chinese Commodity Funding Deals.
The Yuan has weakened over 250 pips in early China trading. Trading at almost 6.22, we are now deeply into the significant-loss-realizing region of the world's carry-traders and Chinese over-hedgers. Morgan Stanley estimates a minimum $4.8bn loss for each 100 pip move. However, the bigger picture is considerably worse as the vicious circle of desperate liquidity needs are starting to gang up on Hong Kong real estate and commodity prices. For those who see the silver lining in this and construe all this as a reason to buy more developed world stocks on the premise that the money flooding out of China (et al.) will be parked in the S&P are overlooking the fact that the purchase price of these now-unwanted positions was most likely borrowed, meaning that their liquidation will also extinguish the associated credit, not re-allocate it.
"Print Yellen Print" - Meanwhile Russia Warns U.S. Sanctions "Unacceptable", Threatens “Consequences”Submitted by GoldCore on 03/19/2014 14:03 -0500
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that Western sanctions over the Crimea dispute were "unacceptable" and “will not remain without consequences." Geopolitical risk shows the importance of owning gold as a hedging instrument and safe haven diversification. As does Yellen's confirmation today that she is going to "print baby print".
"It is clear to us that speculative and Ponzi finance dominate China’s economy at this stage. The question is when and how the system’s current instability resolves itself. The Minsky Moment refers to the moment at which a credit boom driven by speculative and Ponzi borrowers begins to unwind. It is the point at which Ponzi and speculative borrowers are no longer able to roll over their debts or borrow additional capital to make interest payments.... We believe that China finds itself today at exactly this juncture."
Nearly 40% of China lives off of $2 a day. Your average college graduate in China makes just $2,500 per year. In an economy such as this, a rise in prices in costs of living can be devastating for the population.
Ordinarily Grant Williams would bet the ranch on this spat being defused diplomatically and everybody leaving the negotiating table a little disgruntled (which would mean the outcome was just about perfect); but he suspects that markets have become dangerously conditioned — by one perfectly executed landing after another in recent years — to expect (and position for) the best. The trouble is we've been here before and pulled back from the brink every time, but this time that outcome is expected again by most, and that is extremely dangerous; as markets are most assuredly NOT ready for reality. Add to that the fact that every new Fed chief gets a serious test - perhaps it is Yellen's turn?