A look at the drivers for the week ahead.
We know it's a little early for humor... but seriously, meet Beijing Baofeng Technology...
Apple fan-boys have proclaimed the Apple Watch a screaming success as Tim Cook explained he was "generally happy" with the launch. The big driver of the impression of awesomeness was how hard it was to get one... i.e. so much demand that supply copuld not keep up. However, as The Wall Street Journal reports, it was not demand, it was instead defects that forced the company to limit supply.
- Nepal earthquake toll crosses 3700 (Reuters)
- Greeks Add Pressure on Tsipras to Compromise as Talks Resume (BBG)
- With No Deal on Greek Bailout Aid in Sight, Some in Europe Suggest ‘Plan B’ (WSJ)
- BOJ Shouldn’t Ease Further; Yen Fell Enough: Business Lobby Head (BBG)
- Clinton Foundation admits making mistakes on taxes (Reuters)
- Here’s the Old Nemesis Starting to Spook Bond Traders Again (BBG)
- Deutsche Bank to Trim Investment Banking (WSJ)
- China’s Stocks Rise to Seven-Year High on SOE Merger Speculation (BBG)
A look at the next week's events that could impact the global capital markets.
We recently revealed that $5.3 trillion of government debt trades at subzero interest rates. In today’s fiscally profligate world that is a thundering tell. What it signifies is nothing less than financial regime change. There are no markets left in any meaningful sense of the word - just a raging casino infected with the madness of the crowds and the central bank pied pipers who mesmerize them. Every day there are new confirmations of the mania.
"The exchange's trading turnover exceeded 1 trillion yuan ($161.28 billion) for the first time on Monday, but the data could not be properly displayed because its software was not designed to report numbers that high," Reuters reports, in what looks like further evidence that China's self-feeding equity mania is reaching epic proportions. On the bright side, it's not often in today's market that man overcomes software, so score one for human traders.
Just as China was closing for trade and Europe was opening, something previously unseen happened: no, not another another GPIF or Virtu inspired marketwide stop squeeze, those are quite recurring these days. It was virtually every Bloomberg terminal around the globe suddenly going dark.
As noted earlier, while tens of thousands of Bloomberg terminal users were twiddling their thumbs during an outage that lasted several hours, China crashed. There was some confusion about the cause of the rapid move, but it appears the catalyst was an announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in which it allowed fund managers to lend shares for short-selling, and will also expand the number of stocks investors can short sell, in a bid to raise the supply of securities in the market.
The following clip seemed to sum up perfectly just what The PBOC is attempting to do (and just exactly how it will end). With Chinese equities entirely decoupled from any sense of fundamentals, elementary-school-educated people piling their life savings into a market that is up 100% YoY amid the worst economic conditions in a decade or more, and margin trading that is surging (and now being probed - as Reuters reports, PBOC Shanghai has asked banks to check margin trading risks); how could anything go wrong?
- China growth slowest in six years, more stimulus expected soon (Reuters)
- EU charges Google over shopping searches, to probe Android (Reuters)
- A Chinese Paradox: Slow Growth Is Good, Stock Bubbles Welcome (BBG)
- Draghi Seen Dispelling Duration Doubts About QE Program (BBG)
- IEA Sees OPEC Supply Jumping Most in Four Years on Saudi Surge (BBG)
- SEC Reaches Settlement with Former Freddie Mac (WSJ)
- Kerry says confident Obama can get final deal on Iran (Reuters)
- Regulators Call for Short-Term Loan Changes to Handle ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ (WSJ)
- Florida Doctor Linked to Sen. Robert Menendez Indicted for Medicare Fraud (WSJ)
A look ahead into next week's macro forces.
- Iranians celebrate, Obama hails 'historic' nuclear framework (Reuters)
- Iran Nuclear Accord Hailed as Landmark After Marathon Talks (BBG)
- Two New York City women accused of planning 'terrorist attack' (Reuters)
- Cyprus Lifts Capital Controls Two Years After Deposits Bail-In (BBG)
- Jury Hits Chrysler With $150 Million Penalty in Boy’s Death (WSJ)
- Greece says ready to make IMF payment on April 9 (Reuters)
- Germanwings Co-Pilot Set Plane to Go Faster Before Crash (BBG)
- IBM hire advisers to deal with restless investors - sources (Reuters)
It has been another whiplash, rollercoaster, illiquid session which saw US equity futures tumble early overnight driven by a bout of USDJPY and Nikkei selling, only to regain all losses as European, and BIS, traders walked in, and promptly BTFD. In fact at last check, it was as if all the fireworks that took place just a few short hours ago and sent the ES as low as 2037, and below what has become the key support level, the 50-DMA never happened.