Smart Money

Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: Market Soup





Operating and reported earnings have turned sharply lower over recent quarters which has historically been associated with major market peaks. As shown below, it is also important to notice that revenue has tended to lag these downturns in earnings previously. This is because the measures used to substantially boost profitability from each dollar of revenue generated through accounting gimmickry, share repurchases, and cost cutting are finite in nature. When the effect of those manipulations fade, so does the inflated profitability generated from each dollar of revenue. This will be something worth watching closely over the next few quarters particular as the commentary of a "continued secular bull market" continues to hit the headlines.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Smart Money" Has Never Been More Bearish





The put/call ratio of open interest on S&P 100 (OEX) options has historically been a "smart money" indicator. The stock market peaked (anbd has drifted sideways for the last 6-7 weeks) since March 3rd saw an unprecedented string of bearish readings. The bearish OEX put/call readings have not relented, however. In fact, the bearishness has accelerated to an extreme level never seen before.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guess What Happened The Last Time Bond Yields Crashed Like This...





Of course no two financial crashes ever look exactly the same. The crisis that we are moving toward is not going to be precisely like the crisis of 2008. But there are similarities and patterns that we can look for. Sadly, most people are not willing to learn from history. Even though it is glaringly apparent that we are in a historic financial bubble, most investors on Wall Street cannot see it because they do not want to see it. This next financial crisis will be strike number three. After this next crisis, there will never be a return to “normal” for the United States.

 
testosteronepit's picture

The Chilling Thing Blackstone Said about the Oil Bust





Energy companies “biding their time in the hopes they don’t have to face the music.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: What Hath The Fed Wrought





"I was having lunch with a very dear friend of mine yesterday, who is also a very successful financial planner and advisor, who stunned me with an obvious question: 'Has the dumb money become the smart money?'"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Dollar Demand = Global Economy Has Skidded Over The Cliff





Borrowing in USD was risk-on; buying USD is risk-off. As the real global economy slips into recession, risk-on trades in USD-denominated debt are blowing up and those seeking risk-off liquidity and safe yields are scrambling for USD-denominated assets. Add all this up and we have to conclude that, in terms of demand for USD--you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

From Yellen Put To Yellen Massacre





Yellen has created a narrative about the US economy, especially the (un)employment rate, and with the narrative is now firmly in place, Yellen and her stooges can claim they have no choice but to hike In short, Janet Yellen will go down into history as the person responsible for what may be the biggest economic crash ever, or at least delivering the final punch of the way into it, a crash that will make the rich banks even much richer. And there is not one iota of coincidence in there. Yellen works for those banks. The Fed only ever held investors’ hands because that worked out well for Wall Street. And now that’s over. Y’all are on the same side of the same trade, and there’s no profit for Wall Street that way.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Bubble Is Complete: 'Smart Money' Buys Into Bespoke Tranche "Opportunity" (Again)





Single-name CDS performance suggests investors are buying the "opportunity" Citi and Goldman are selling, providing further proof that we truly will never learn.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Where The Hedge Fund Herd Was Parked Last Week: The Most Long And Short Net Specs





Hedge funds are still useful for one thing: observing where the fast money herd is parked, and doing precisely the opposite in advance of the herd dispersing. Because in a market as illiquid as this one, any and all fast, sudden moves by even the smallest group of traders results in dramatic price movement outliers.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meet Landlord Loans: You Too Can Be A Real Estate Speculator





"Three big private equity firms — the Blackstone Group, Colony Capital and Cerberus Capital Management — are betting that so-called landlord loans to small and midsize investors will become the next big opportunity to profit from the rebound in the United States housing market. The private equity firms are providing financing indirectly to hundreds of real estate funds buying single-family homes, something that until recently was not widely available."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Grant Williams: Why The Smart Money Is So Nervous Now





"If you drop anybody into any momentous period in history, it’s really tough to perceive it at the time. It’s only when you look back on these things with the benefit of hindsight that you really see how historic they really are. But for many people right now who can forget the narrative and can forget what they're being told by various interested parties, if you can stand back far enough and take a practical look at what’s happening, I think it’s much easier to see certainly how far from normality things are today. "

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Holdings of Eurozone Rise to 10,792 Tonnes – ECB’s “Reserve of Safety” Accumulated





It may signal that the ECB and Eurozone are set to embark on a gold accumulation programme. More likely, it is simply a way to bolster confidence in the euro due to increasing doubts about the viability of the single currency.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"The Smart Money Is Selling, Not Buying" Goldman Warns With Valuations In The "99th Percentile"





"The median stock sports a P/E and EV/EBITDA of 18.0x and 11.0x, respectively. These valuations rank in the 99th percentile of both P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples since 1976.  The proverbial “smart money” is selling, not buying. Completed private equity sales through M&A and via follow-on offerings have both surged to record levels measured by both number of deals and by transaction value. A total of 350 follow-on sales by private equity firms were completed in 2013 and 2014, a 70% jump from the 210 transactions completed in 2011 and 2012."

 
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