So, we have investor sentiment showing record bullishness, investors are piling into stocks at a pace not seen since 1999-2000: at the height of the Tech Bubble, earnings are generally falling, the global economy is contracting, and the Fed is already buying $85 billion worth of assets per month.
There was more irregular price action in trading yesterday between 1800 and 1830 GMT. Gold had trended slightly higher in the afternoon and was trading at $1,244/oz prior to a sharp but very brief spike to $1,254/oz and then sharp concentrated selling saw gold fall by more than $20 to $1,231/oz before bouncing higher and recovering to the $1,245/oz level again.
The trading was unusual as foreign exhange markets saw no price movements of note, nor did the silver, platinum and palladium markets.
It would likely also deal another blow to the U.S property market and the fragile U.S economy. JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo appear to be most exposed - meaning that either taxpayers will again be asked to bail out banks or more likely the coming bail-in regime will confiscate cash from depositors.
And yet gold still seems to be stuck in a downtrend. This week's sell off may have been due to trading shenanigans on the COMEX and many, including the UK Financial Regulator are asking questions as to whether gold price rigging is taking place.
However, while price manipulations may work in the short term, in the long term gold prices will be dictated by the real world forces of physical supply and demand for gold coins, bars and jewellery. The smart money is fading out the considerable noise regarding volatile intraday price falls and focusing on gold's importance as a long term diversification in a portfolio.
“This is different" and "this location is different" is the mantra of every property bubble. We will soon see if the London property bubble is truly different or will suffer the fate of the bubbles throughout history. Of the four charts in our market update today, which ones do you think show characteristics of a bubble? Those diversifying and buying gold in the UK will be rewarded in the coming years. The smart money is reducing exposure to overvalued London property and increasing exposure to undervalued gold.
It may appear to be safe for everyone to be on the same side of the boat, but the gunwale is awfully close to the water.
The stock below is up 1200% year-to-date. The company in question is insolvent by any and all measures and has a "parent" under great pressure to take whatever gains it can get (as opposed to leave anything for shareholders). The company is exposed to the worst of the worst in the housing market. The smart money (as they are called) is piling in. The company is, of course, Fannie Mae (or Freddie Mac - same discussion). This chart, like none other, reflects the "investment" thesis in America today, as Grenwood's Walter Todd notes, “Either you’re going to make a lot of money or you’re going to lose everything you put into it."
Demand for gold in the Middle East remains robust and there has been an eightfold increase or 700% increase in demand in recent years. Geopolitical uncertainty in the region, from Libya to Egypt to Syria and Iraq and Iran is leading to demand for bullion.
Thus, the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange plans to list a spot gold contract in the second quarter of next year. The bourse, which offers gold and silver futures, is talking to local merchants and industry organizations and aims to get regulatory approval for the product by early 2014, Chief Executive Officer Gary Anderson told Bloomberg. Demand for bullion in Dubai expanded eightfold in the last six to 10 years, he said.
Dubai accounts for about 25% of global physical gold trade and the United Arab Emirates will grow as a precious metals trading hub partly because of its location near the largest consuming nations, according to the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, which owns a majority stake in the DGCX.
Already, the Chinese have stopped accumulating dollars - preferring safer currencies, infrastructure, hard assets and commodities and of course gold. Even a small amount of Chinese selling could lead to substantial dollar weakness and much higher bond yields plummeting the U.S. into another recession.
Earlier this month, we highlighted the fact that the Carlyle Group was the latest in a series of “smart money” private equity firms to decide it was time to exit the suddenly extremely crowded “buy-to rent” residential real estate trade. Well it appears Carlyle has already started to make its move. In case you can’t figure out what appears to be the key logic behind the shift in focus, try this line on for size:
Because the cost of relocating a home is expensive, residents are less likely to move away. “Our customers have no alternative shot at homeownership, nor do they [normally] even have the credit scores and quality to seek anything better,” Mr. Rolfe said. “They never leave the park they are in, and the revenues are unbelievably stable as a result.”
In neo-feudalistic America, always, always go long serfdom.
The U.S. is engaged in fiscal and monetary policies that are akin to a Banana Republic.
In addition to electronically creating out of nothing $85 billion every month to buy its own debt in the form of bonds, the U.S. is also borrowing more money than it is authorized to borrow, from itself again.
The President warned yesterday that "this time is different," and now the Treasury has weighed in with an even more ominous warning. In their statement, they note:
*TREASURY OFFICIAL: CONGRESS ACTION ONLY WAY TO AVOID DEFAULT
*TREASURY SEES `TENTATIVE' SIGNS IMPASSE AFFECTING MARKETS
*TREASURY SAYS BILL YIELDS MAY REFLECT `NASCENT CONCERNS'
*TREASURY: DEFAULT IMPACT COULD BE PROFOUND, LAST A GENERATION
And so it seems not only are they looking at the same indicators as the smart money in the markets but it is clear that the rhetoric will be increased until the equity market cracks and the politicians get their catalyst to act.
Every year there seems to be a few momentum stocks defying logic, reality while bleeding all shorts getting in the way. This year, Tesla Motor is one such stock.
It’s often argued that they don’t a bell at the top. I would argue that we numerous bells ringing in the financial markets today.