SocGen

Trader: The Dollar Bounce Is Unlikely To Be Over Yet

Investors have become so used to low volatility they are starting to over-interpret every little move in asset prices. The two latest examples are traders concluding there’s no contagion from Turkey’s problems just as they begin, and dollar bears heralding the resumption of the long-term downtrend when the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is only 0.6% from its 12-week high.

Previewing The September "Hurricane-Disrupted" Jobs Report

Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be... confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as 260,000.

SocGen: "Global Earnings Are Back To 2014 Levels; Stocks Are 15% Higher"

"QE sustained equities levels in anticipation of a profit recovery, but rather than de-rating as those earnings came through, markets are simply being propelled to ever higher levels. The equity valuation problem was created during the 2011-15 era when global profits went nowhere, yet equities rose 30%."

"Tremendous" Demand For 7Y Treasurys; Second Largest Buyside On Record

An ugly 2Y auction (with the highest yield since 2008) on Tuesday, a mediocre 5Y auction yesterday, and now a blistering 7Y auction, in which the Treasury sold $28 billion in "curve belly" notes at a high yield of 2.13%, stopping through the When Issued by a surprisingly strong 1.1bps, the highest since April.

A China Conspiracy Theory: "What If Beijing Is Behind The Entire Move?" SocGen Asks

"One interpretation is that China has been accumulating Treasuries to stop the Yuan appreciating too fast, buying Treasuries and driving yields lower than they would otherwise have been. Was that 2.03% 10year Note a function of expectations about the Fed, inflation and fiscal policy, or the result of Chinese buying in summer markets?"

Why The German Elections Matter, And Not Just For Germany

Germany's Sept. 24 election will likely result in one of the most fragmented parliaments the country has seen in decades. The country's two largest parties will try to avoid renewing their current coalition partnership, meaning smaller parties will play a big role in the formation of the next government.

GoldCore's picture

Gold is currently up over 15% for the year, silver by nearly 12%. Both offer financial safe havens during times of war. All parties involved in the current geopolitical fracas are big holders of gold. Two of them, Russia and China are enabling the trade of the precious metal for key commodities.