"I sometimes feel like ‘The Grim Reaper’, scouring the research savannah in a ghoulish quest to harvest bad news with a forceful sweep of my scythe. Imagine then my perverse delight when our credit team produced what is one of the scariest charts I have seen for a very long time." = Albert Edwards
European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session. Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains.
Industrial metals commodity prices plunged by the most since March in the last 2 days as China’s exchanges (once again) clamped down on speculation by tightening trading rules. As Bloomberg reports, for the second time this year, trading has exploded on the nation’s exchanges, pushing prices of everything from zinc to coal to multi-year highs and sending authorities scrambling to deflate the bubble before it bursts.
"... we believe that the equity market is still at a level that can cope with moderately rising bond yields. We estimate that a rise in US bond yields above 2.75% or probably between 0.75-1% in Germany would create a more serious problem for equity markets: at that point we would expect that any further rises in yields from there would be a negative for stock returns." - Goldman Sachs
On Sunday two former prime ministers - Fillon and Juppe - are facing off in a runoff vote for France's center-right presidential nomination, with the victor expected to face a showdown against a resurgent Marine Le Pen in the May 2017 presidential election. Voting opened at 8 a.m. and was set to close at 7 p.m., with the first results likely up to an hour and a half later.
Unable to spend or deposit their sackfuls of large bank notes amid India’s crackdown on hoarding cash, business owners across the country are paying employees months of salary in advance, ringing up bogus sales and even buying gold they can smuggle overseas to get rid of stashed money or conceal its source.
India's 'de-monetization' scheme has caused chaos across the nation, and while SocGen says the government's plan may have some short-term success in curbing so-called 'black-money', investors should "brace for economic disruption" as Bloomberg reports the Indian government is considering a cap on cash holdings for individuals. As SocGen concludes, "people will now be more inclined to park their black income in gold rather than in currency."
"The paradigm has shifted in terms of inflation. Long-end interest rates are dangerous. Make sure you are being really careful about the long-end exposure as we saw this week." - Rick Rieder, CIO for global fixed income at BlackRock.
For now, shareholders appear unphased by the fact that the cost of funding of the companies that they prize are soaring at an unprecedented speed. Nowhere is that more obviously disconnected than the congnitive dissonance between credit-sensitive small cap stocks and the plunge in high-yield corporate bonds. However, as we have begun to see today, rising yields are starting to weigh on stocks... but at what level does that "too much of a bad thing in bonds" slam stocks?