• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

SocGen

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With $1.8 Trillion In Debt Maturing This Year, Two Big Problems Emerge





The first big problem, or rather first 9.5 trillion problems: that is how much debt the corporate buyback binge will cost companies over the next 5 years as the debt matures. The second big problem is even more important: the disappearance of virtually all demand from the primary bond market, most certainly in the junk space, and gradually, in investment grade as well.

 
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With All Eyes Again On Draghi, This Is What Remains In The ECB's Toolbox





Today's deflationary report, the worst since the start of Europe's QE, virtually assures another substantial round of policy easing from the European Central Bank on March 10. The question is what the ECB will reveal. Here are the options.

 
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Key Events In The Coming "Payrolls" Week





The week was supposed to start off quiet on the macro news front, but the PBOC spoiled that with an unprecedented Monday, Feb 29 RRR cut, its fifth since the start of 2015. In any case, it slowly builds up to the week's biggest event on Friday, when the BLS reports February payrolls and will be hard pressed to find all the seasonal adjustments it needs to cover for not only the lost jobs in the devastated energy sector but, as we reported over the weekend, the sudden dramatic air pocket in Silicon Valley jobs.

 
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Frontrunning: February 26





  • Fight night: Rubio, Cruz gang up on Trump in debate ploy (Reuters)
  • Laid Bare in Shanghai: G-20 Tensions Over How to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • China Flags Scope for Policy Stimulus, Tweaks Monetary Stance (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Rise With Commodities as China Sees Room to Ease (BBG)
  • Greece seeks to stem migrant flow as thousands trapped by border limits (Reuters)
 
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SocGen: "The Market, Today, Is Clearly Hoping The Authorities Will Step In"





"With the introduction of negative rates and the subsequent rise in the Yen, are the Japanese authorities, once again, about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as has happened so many times in the past? The market, today, is clearly hoping the authorities will step in.... whilst QE typically pushed investors out of bonds into riskier assets, negative interest rates could potentially do the exact opposite. "

 
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Should You Buy "Falling Knives"





Spoiler alert: no.

 
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HSBC Cancels Pay Freeze After Two Weeks Following "Staff Revolt"





“We have listened to feedback and as a result decided to change the way these cost savings are to be achieved"...

 
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Frontrunning: February 11





  • Gold Roars to One-Year High as Turmoil Drives Safe Haven Demand (BBG)
  • Banking Stocks Pummeled in Europe (WSJ)
  • Dollar, stocks plunge sparks scramble for safety (Reuters)
  • Nymex Crude Slips Below $27 a Barrel (WSJ)
  • No Respite for S&P 500 as U.S. Stock Futures Join Global Selloff (BBG)
 
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JPMorgan: "It's Hard To Imagine An Uglier Morning"





"Trying to divine the end of the rout is difficult given the globe is in the midst of a series of tightly intertwined, self-reinforcing, and correlated trades and narratives (i.e. oil slumps and drags inflation down with it which prompts CBs to ratchet up accommodation which sinks banks which crushes general market sentiment and the overall price declines tighten financial market conditions and scares corporate execs and actual economic activity begins to deteriorate)."

 
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Key Events In The Coming "Payrolls" Week





After last week's relatively quiet, on macro data if not central bank news, week the newsflow picks up with the usual global PMI survey to start, and end the week with the US January payrolls report.

 
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Citi On Why Negative Rates Are Like Potato Chips: "No One Can Have Just One"





"Experience in other countries that have entered into this territory should sober you up on the likely economic and inflation impact. No country that has gone into negative rates has experienced major shifts in its growth and inflation profile – minor, yes; major, no. As a consequence every dip into negative rates has been followed by additional moves."

 
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Helicopter Money Arrives: Switzerland To Hand Out $2500 Monthly To All Citizens





With Citi's chief economist proclaiming "only helicopter money can save the world now," and the Bank of England pre-empting paradropping money concerns, it appears that Australia's largest investment bank's forecast that money-drops were 12-18 months away was too conservative. While The Finns consider a "basic monthly income" for the entire population, Swiss residents are to vote on a countrywide referendum about a radical plan to pay every single adult a guaranteed income of around $2500 per month, with authorities insisting that people will still want to find a job.

 
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Macro Hedge Funds Crushed Again





That giant sucking sound you hear is the P&L of macro/FX hedge funds as they look in dismay at their USDJPY exposure.

 
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