Sovereign CDS

Is A US Default Imminent: Liquidation Panic Grips T-Bills Market

While the politicians and the mainstream media are playing down any concerns about the US debt ceiling, Treasury Bill market participants are seeing chaos as the yield curve has snapped across the Sept-Oct divide with panic-buying in bills that mature ahead of the September-end (Q3-end liquidity needs), and dumping of October bills.

BIS Admits TARGET2 Is A Stealth Bailout Of Europe's Periphery

"In the period leading up to mid-2012, T2 balances grew strongly due to intra-euro area capital flight. At the time, sovereign market strains spiked and redenomination risk came to the fore in parts of the euro area. Private capital fled from Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain into markets perceived to be safer, such as Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands."

Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

According to BofA, the best ways to hedge increased risks of a potential Eurosceptic win in the upcoming French election is favouring 10y peripheral spread wideners in Spain vs France, longs in 5y5y Germany and 5y Dutch sovereign CDS. In the options space, the banks recommends going long vol with a hybrid 6m10y strangle. In inflation, it likes 5y5y French CPI v HICP widener and a long 30y OATei breakeven vs inflation swap.

Unexpected Chart Of The Day: USA Default Risk Tumbles As Trump Gains

While every establishment politician and mainstream media pundit has proclaimed the end of the world as we know it if Donald Trump were to win next week, it appears - perhaps throwing off the narrative of exactly who is the "most dangerous" candidate - that the risk of the US Dollar has dropped along with Trump's resurgence...

Hyperinflation Looms As 'Black Market' Egyptian Pound Crashes To Record Low

With all eyes on the drop in the British Pound, it is another 'pound' that is utterly collapsing. Despite its official exchange rate is 8.88 per dollar, Egypt’s pound dropped to 16.11 per dollar in the black market, another record that extends declines over the past month to 19% and down over 40% since it devalued in March.

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

British Default Risk Soars To 3 Year Highs As Hedging Volume Spikes

Investors are increasingly reaching for protection of various sorts ahead of next week's Brexit vote. The credit derivatives market is the latest to experience the surge as corporate CDS indices spike on extremely high volume and perhaps more troubling, UK Sovereign CDS has spiked to its highest in over 3 years as fears of devaluation or default rise...“Many viewed Brexit as unlikely enough that they didn’t have to worry about it, and now they’re panicking to some degree."

US Default Risk Hits 8-Month Highs

While still relatively low, USA sovereign CDS spreads have risen to 8-month highs, surging off early March lows. The reasons are likely numerous though we suggest the 4 surges in the last 3 months appear to line up with notable 'events'...

Furious Rally Fizzles Overnight As Futures Follow Oil Lower

Following yesterday's torrid 2.4% March opening rally, which resulted in the biggest S&P gain since January and the best first day of March in history on what was initially seen as very bad news, and then reinterpreted as great news, overnight futures have taken a breather, and erased a modest overnight continuation rally to track the price of oil lower.

"China Is Not Contained" Credit Market Screams

We have seen this pattern before, and it did not end well. While the most mainstream indications of China's "stability" are droned on about as indicating some level of control (i.e. Yuan volatility suppression), the fact is that no matter how hard China tries to centrally plan the entire world, segments of the credit market are screaming "uncontained."