Sovereign Debt

Buried Beneath The Headlines...

"This morning’s big news is the Chinese announcement they would they would buy more US Treasuries as the Yuan stabilizes. Although the knee jerk market response was to take US Treasuries higher, I wonder if traders are misinterpreting the news."

The ECB Has Almost Run Out Of German Bonds To Buy

Last month the average maturity of all German bond purchases by the ECB bond plunged below 4 for the first time ever, or just 3.98 years, the lowest on record.  This confirms that the ECB is actively reducing the amount of German Bunds it is buying and suggests that the ECB has almost run out of eligible German bonds to buy.

Bill Blain: "If You Want To See Inflation In Action, Then Financial Asset Prices Are Screaming “Danger, Danger"

"If you don’t believe there is inflation stare deep into your Bloomberg screens and call up the price of any and all financial assets; bonds or stocks. If you want to see inflation in action, then Financial Asset Prices are screaming “Danger, Danger Will Robinson, Danger!” If you want inflation – there it is. Methinks all these clever people aren’t seeing the inflationary Forest because of the financial asset trees."

Frontrunning: May 31

  • Trump Faces Instability as Russia Probe Expands to Inner Circle (WSJ)
  • Huge bomb in sewage tanker kills at least 80, wounds hundreds in Afghan capital (Reuters)
  • Russia fires cruise missiles at Islamic State targets from Mediterranean (Reuters)
  • Trump blasts Russia probe, urges testimony from former adviser Page (Reuters)
  • Activist probing factories making Ivanka Trump shoes in China arrested (Reuters)

In Watershed Event, Europe Unveils Plan To Securitize Sovereign Debt

In a watershed event for the European - and global - bond markets, Brussels is pressing for sovereign debt from across the eurozone to be "bundled into a new financial instrument and sold to investors as part of a proposal to strengthen the single currency area."  Call it securitized sovereign debt.

Will The Crazy Global Debt Bubble Ever End?

We've been playing two games to mask insolvency: one is to pay the costs of rampant debt today by borrowing even more from future earnings, and the second is to create wealth out of thin air via asset bubbles. All the games end badly.

Frontrunning: May 24

  • Trump Meets With Pope Francis After Policy Clashes (WSJ)
  • Fed Minutes to Offer Clues on Debate Over Path of Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • Manchester bomber had 'proven' links to Islamic State (Reuters)
  • U.K. Chides U.S. for Leaking Manchester Bombing Probe Details (BBG)
  • China Handed First Moody's Downgrade Since 1989 on Debt Risk (BBG)

China Downgrade Forgotten As Asia Closes Higher, Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Not even last night's Moody's credit downgrade of China - the first since 1989 - could dent the global stock rally which has pushed global stock prices to all time highs. After initially sliding, regional stocks and emerging Asian currencies pared early losses following the unexpected downgrade of China, taking their cue from the "sudden reversal" of the Shanghai Composite Index, which some speculated saw the latest intervention of the "national team."

The Least Explicable Bubble Of All

Of all the mini-bubbles now inflating out there, maybe the least explicable is the race among emerging market companies to borrow dollars. This has gotten them – and their governments — in huge trouble so many times in the past that you’d think dollar debt would be kind of a hot stove thing for Brazilians and Mexicans.

S&P Futures Jump Ahead Of GOP Healthcare Vote, Ignore China Commodity Crash

S&P futures rose on hopes a successful Republican healthcare vote on Thursday will unlock the Trump fiscal agenda, while European shares jumped to a 20 month high on signs Macron is poised to win Sunday's French election coupled with reassuring corporate results, including strong earnings from HSBC, even as Chinese and Australian stocks fell as commodities, and iron ore futures particularly, tumbled.