Sovereign Debt

Frontrunning: May 24

  • Trump Meets With Pope Francis After Policy Clashes (WSJ)
  • Fed Minutes to Offer Clues on Debate Over Path of Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • Manchester bomber had 'proven' links to Islamic State (Reuters)
  • U.K. Chides U.S. for Leaking Manchester Bombing Probe Details (BBG)
  • China Handed First Moody's Downgrade Since 1989 on Debt Risk (BBG)

China Downgrade Forgotten As Asia Closes Higher, Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Not even last night's Moody's credit downgrade of China - the first since 1989 - could dent the global stock rally which has pushed global stock prices to all time highs. After initially sliding, regional stocks and emerging Asian currencies pared early losses following the unexpected downgrade of China, taking their cue from the "sudden reversal" of the Shanghai Composite Index, which some speculated saw the latest intervention of the "national team."

The Least Explicable Bubble Of All

Of all the mini-bubbles now inflating out there, maybe the least explicable is the race among emerging market companies to borrow dollars. This has gotten them – and their governments — in huge trouble so many times in the past that you’d think dollar debt would be kind of a hot stove thing for Brazilians and Mexicans.

S&P Futures Jump Ahead Of GOP Healthcare Vote, Ignore China Commodity Crash

S&P futures rose on hopes a successful Republican healthcare vote on Thursday will unlock the Trump fiscal agenda, while European shares jumped to a 20 month high on signs Macron is poised to win Sunday's French election coupled with reassuring corporate results, including strong earnings from HSBC, even as Chinese and Australian stocks fell as commodities, and iron ore futures particularly, tumbled.

Core Eurozone Inflation Surges To 4 Year High As CPI Nears ECB Target

Mario Draghi's job just became a little more difficult, because one day after the head of the ECB surprised markets with a more dovish statement than expected stressing risks for European inflation, on Friday morning Eurostat reported that Euro zone inflation rose by more than expected to the European Central Bank's target and core inflation increased to its highest level in four years.

Trump Tax Cuts To Add As Much As $7 Trillion In Debt

"Based on what we know so far, the plan could cost $3 to $7 trillion over a decade– our base-case estimate is $5.5 trillion in revenue loss over a decade.... a $5.5 trillion tax plan would be enough to increase debt to 111 percent of Gross Domestic Product (compared to 89 percent of GDP in CBO's baseline) by 2027."

Jamie Dimon Warns "Something Is Wrong" With The US

"Our problems are significant, and they are not the singular purview of either political party. We need coherent, consistent, comprehensive and coordinated policies that help fix these problems. The solutions are not binary – they are not either/or, and they are not about Democrats or Republicans."