Sovereign Debt

Stocks Slide After Trump Threatens Government Shutdown Over Wall Funding, Killing NAFTA

US equity futures reversed early gains to slip as much as 0.3% following a fiery Trump campaign rally speech in which he threatened to shutdown government over border wall funding. Additionally, the yen strengthened, while the Mexican peso weakened 0.2 percent as the president also said he might terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement at some point.

"Friends Don't Let Friends Buy VIX"

"You know a trade is getting crowded when my parents start asking about it.  You know just how one sided something is when people think that even Chuck Norris can’t make money buying vol... I think selling VIX is very crowded and fraught with danger."

Austerity Isn't Dead, It Will Come Back With A Vengeance

"Whilst I don’t deny the medium term tide is against austerity, the very high levels of sovereign debt mean austerity will return. To understand why this must happen we need to deal with the three key fallacies that austerity opponents are propagating."

Bernie Sanders Releases The "Teen Guide To Political Revolution"

"This is a generation that is prepared to think big and move this country in a very different direction [socialism?] than we have been traveling for years. It is especially prepared to reject the value system espoused by Donald Trump [capitalism?]..."

Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

The latest credit investor survey by Bank of America shows a marked change in the Wall of Worry: "Quantitative Failure" by central banks has emerged as investors’ top concern (23%), up materially from June’s reading (6%). Investors say that a backdrop of the ECB ending QE next year, while inflation remains sub-par, "has the potential to rattle the market’s confidence."

Trump Confirms He Will Sign Russia Sanctions Bill

"President Donald J. Trump read early drafts of the bill and negotiated regarding critical elements of it.  He has now reviewed the final version and, based on its responsiveness to his negotiations, approves the bill and intends to sign it."

Pakistan Plunges Into Political Turmoil After Prime Minister Ousted For Corruption

Pakistan plunged into political turmoil when its Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif resigned shortly after the Supreme Court ousted him from office on Friday following an investigation into allegations of corruption centering on undeclared offshore assets.  The court disqualified Sharif for not being “honest”, a requirement for lawmakers under Pakistan’s constitution, something the US sorely needs to amend as well.

Senate Overwhelmingly Votes For New Russia Sanctions, Now It's Up To Trump

In an overwhelming 98-2 vote, the Senate has sent legislation slapping new sanctions on Moscow to President Trump's desk, setting up a potential showdown with the White House over Russia. Senators voted to pass the bill, which would give Congress the ability to block Trump from lifting the Russia sanctions. It also includes new penalties against Iran and North Korea.

Stone McCarthy: No More Hikes This Year, Debt Ceiling Can Derail Fed's Balance Sheet Plans

"We continue to expect that the FOMC will announce the change in reinvestment policy at the September meeting. However, this could be delayed if it looks like an increase to the debt limit is not immediately forthcoming, and with it the risks of the US default on its sovereign debt. Due to the disappointing inflation numbers, we do not look for another rate hike in 2017, and for only two in 2018."

What Trump's Venezuela Sanctions Will Do To Oil Prices: Barclays Explains

"A sharper and longer disruption could raise oil prices at least $5-7/b and flatten the curve structure despite an assumed return of some OPEC supply, a more robust US shale response, and weaker demand. It may be just the opportunity OPEC needs to exit its current strategy." - Barclays

"Psycho"

"In the end, fundamentals always win. But in the short term, markets are Psycho..."