Sovereign Debt

Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

Hugh Hendry Interviewed On His "Eureka Moment" Trade Of The Day, QE, China, The Dollar And Much More

In a recent interview with Macro Voices, Hugh Hendry is asked about the trade he has on in his fund, to which the Scotsman says that his team recently had a “eureka moment” and figured out how to design a trade, which has a negative carry when viewed in simple terms, such that they preserve the asymmetric of risk/reward while converting it to a positive-carry trade by adding another “European sovereign component to the trade”.

Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

Brace Yourself For The Quadrillion-Dollar Reckoning

"...debt is simply everywhere, at least to the extent we can see and measure it. Corporate and sovereign debt, of both the developed world and emerging market varieties, are at record levels. China’s debts certainly add to that record but who really knows to what extent? It’s the ultimate black box of leverage on Planet Earth... You cannot NOT worry about the Fed in this world...The simple truth is ending reinvestment would bring the bond market to its knees.

As Gold Crashes, Gartman Has A Theory What Is Behind It

"Tuesday’s sell-off did look like liquidation rather than fundamentally warranted selling. This view is further supported by the fact that the open interest in the COMEX futures has fallen by more than 4% this week, suggestive strongly of forced liquidation and a throwing up of the hands… and of the stuff in one’s stomach."

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

Gartman On The Gold Carnage: "We Have Wounds To Lick And Heal"

"Do we think gold is overdone on the downside; yes, we do indeed, but so much technical damage has been wrought that any bounces toward $1292-$1297 will prove to be formidable resistance on a first bounce. For now, we have wounds to lick and heal."

Bill Blain: "If The ECB’s Bond Buying Largesse Is Over Get Set For The European Debt Crisis Part Two"

With the rumor, or at least trial balloon, of an ECB taper rocking bond markets and pushing EM equities lower, a dire forecast has emerged from Mint Partners' head of capital markets Bill Blain who in his latest note warns that "if the ECB’s trillion-billion bond buying largesse is over – then get set for the European sovereign debt crisis Part Two as markets focus back on debt fundamentals."

Kuroda Ruined His Chance Of A Second Term By Doing "Stupid Things", Abe Advisor Says

BOJ governor Kuroda has ruined his chances of getting a second full term, according to Nobuyuki Nakahara, who has advised the prime minister on the economy and was an intellectual father of Japan's QE. "They are trying to clean up the mess of negative rates. It’s impossible to do a stupid thing like keeping the yield curve under government control."

How Much Longer Will Investors Trust The Central Banks?

It is time for central banks to start acknowledging their limitations, and doing so by acting and not talking about their future intentions. It is also time for investors to stop believing that central banks had the answers to begin with.