Sovereign Debt

Jim Rickards' "Golden Solution" To America's Debt Crisis

"The bottom line is that not even money printing has worked to get inflation moving... Is there anything left in the bag of tricks? There is actually. The Fed could actually cause inflation in about 15 minutes if it used it."

Oh Canada - Reflections On An Economic Experiment

"...the real problem is with the Fed’s unwillingness to surprise markets. They are convinced that moves should be telegraphed well in advance.. the Fed is a slave to market expectations...Well, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is willing to take the other side of this view. Arguing that in normal times, there is no need for such guidance..."

Frontrunning: September 12

  • Trump Plans Aggressive Road Show to Sell Tax Overhaul (BBG)
  • Trump to weigh more aggressive U.S. strategy on Iran (Reuters)
  • Florida Turns to Recovery as Irma Moves North (WSJ)
  • What to Expect at Apple’s Biggest Event in Years (BBG)
  • A $150 Billion Misfire: How Forecasters Got Irma Damage So Wrong (BBG)

Emerging Market Debt: Dumb, Dumber, And Dumbest

One of the classic signs that the credit cycle is nearing the end is that borrowers that shouldn’t be getting financed not only get funded, but get it at terms that seem crazy...

Goldman "Unexpectedly" Exempt From Venezuela Bond Trading Ban

"That was somewhat surprising," said Francisco Rodriguez, chief economist at Torino Capital. "I guess the logic is that those bonds are already in the hands of bondholders, so you wouldn’t be really blocking new financing." That, or the "logic" was to exempt Goldman from the trading ban until the bank can sell them without incuring a major loss...

A Brief History Of Tail Risk: From LTCM, ABX, CDS, To VIX

"While I think valuations may be stretched, my bigger concern is that the real risk lies in market structure – more specifically to volatility and correlation strategies that quickly propagate through the financial markets with the aid of algorithmic trading..."

Are Central Banks Nationalizing The Economy?

"Monetization is a perfect system to nationalize the economy passing all the risks of excess spending and imbalances to taxpayers. And it always ends badly... To believe that this time will be different and governments will spend all that massive 'very expensive free money' wisely is simply delusional."

Stocks Slide After Trump Threatens Government Shutdown Over Wall Funding, Killing NAFTA

US equity futures reversed early gains to slip as much as 0.3% following a fiery Trump campaign rally speech in which he threatened to shutdown government over border wall funding. Additionally, the yen strengthened, while the Mexican peso weakened 0.2 percent as the president also said he might terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement at some point.

"Friends Don't Let Friends Buy VIX"

"You know a trade is getting crowded when my parents start asking about it.  You know just how one sided something is when people think that even Chuck Norris can’t make money buying vol... I think selling VIX is very crowded and fraught with danger."