Sovereign Debt

Despite earlier commenting that Greek debt sustainability is hard without a write off, German FinMin Schaeuble just told German lawmakers bluntly that there will be no Greek debt cut. What is problematic for Merkel and her minions is that Mario Draghi just confirmed what The IMF has been 'secretly' leaking - that it is "uncontroversial that Greek debt relief is necessary." As this confusion reigns, The Eurogroup has issued a statement "welcoming the adoption by the Greek parliament" of the measures imposed upon the Greek people to drive them further into depression.

Spain has over $1.0 trillion in debt outstanding… and Italy has €2.6 trillion. These bonds are backstopping tens of trillions of Euros’ worth of derivatives trades. A haircut on them would trigger systemic failure in Europe.

We are in a risk-off period, so we reiterate the need to have cash in portfolios. The US dollar and US Treasuries are the safest assets in our view...

Greece just took a hit… and once again it’s depositors that will take it on the chin. But this process is only just begun. Similar Crises will be spreading throughout the globe in  the coming months.

The time to negotiate the Greek referendum this Sunday has come and gone and at this point, one can only sit and wait as the vote results start trickling in on Sunday evening. And, as Goldman's Huw Pill prudently observes, the outcome of Sunday's Greek referendum is uncertain. "Regardless of the outcome, Greece will continue to face substantial economic dislocation in the shorter term." What is interesting is that Goldman says "Greece will ultimately remain in the Euro area even in the event of a ‘No’ vote."

Overnight the Riksbank confirmed that it neither learns from its own mistakes, nor reads BIS reports when at 9:30 CET, it shocked central bank watcher all of whom were expecting no rate change from the bank, and announced it is not only engaging in yet another rate cut, taking the key rate even further into record NIRP territory, from -0.25% to -0.35% but adding insult to broken QE injury, it would expand its QE by a further SEK 45 billion starting in September. The reason? Sweden is realizing it is losing the currency war (to a great extent due to its failed QE which is pushing bond yields higher and with it, its currency) and it needs to soak up even more collateral... which can barely be found.

This is the question that astute investors are forced to ask themselves these days. No reasonable person believes that a system of ever-expanding debt can resolve painlessly. It simply cannot happen... not, at least, until 2+2 stops equaling four. But the international money system, while deeply interconnected, can implode in sections. In fact, it’s highly unlikely that it will crash as a single unit. So, if you have significant moneys to invest, you end up coming back to our question: Who will be the last to crash?

It’s all so very 1914-ish. Draghi’s cap on bank-supporting Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) is the modern day equivalent of Czar Nicholas II’s troop mobilization. Good luck walking that back.

Regardless of what package the Troika (or China or Russia) would have ever given Greece, the endgame would have always been full tilt default. This can be mathematically proven. There are also about 14 other countries with similar characteristics - all easily seen with just a modicum of insight and research. Just as easy is the ability to avoid the inevitable capital controls and bank bail-ins that the Greeks are subject to now.

The next round of the great crisis is here. 2008 was just A Crisis… we've just begun THE Crisis.

"More cynically, if a default of bank liabilities is inevitable, it may deem it better to ensure that domestic claimants on Greek banks switch into hard 'convertible' Euro banknotes (or offshore accounts), leaving the residual claimants (the ECB which has provided ELA funding) to take the loss."

We cannot forget that crisis is in itself a distraction as well. Whatever pain we do feel tomorrow, or the next day, or the next decade, remember who it was that caused it all: the international banks and their globalist political counterparts. No matter what happens, never be willing to accept a centralized system. No matter how reasonable or rational it might sound amid the terror of fiscal uncertainty, never give the beast what it wants. Refuse to conform to the dialectic. This is the only chance we have left to get back to true prosperity. Once we cross the line into the realm of worldwide institutionalized interdependency, we will never know prosperity or freedom again.

If you jump off of a make believe cliff, don't be surprised when you hit the reality of the ground! Reggie Middleton

For a glimpse of what happens next, look no further than Sweden.

“There are three things that matter in the bond market these days: liquidity, liquidity and liquidity. When the unwind comes, like we’ve seen in the past few months, it comes abruptly and sharply as the exit door is tiny"...