• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Sovereign Debt

Tyler Durden's picture

What De-Leveraging? ECB QE To Drive $600 Billion in New Issuance





The ECB’s €1 trillion plus in asset purchases should drive demand for euro corporate credit as yields on sovereign debt and SSAs are driven relentlessly lower. UBS is now forecasting €600 billion in supply for 2015, up a fifth from last year with up to €140 billion in HY issuance. With liquidity in the secodary market constrained by regulation, does this increase the risk that a tail event could trigger a bond market meltdown? 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Calamitous Consequences





Is it possible that capitalism’s underlying focus on profits, and the necessity for endless purchases of goods and services, has a practical limit?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bad News For America's Biggest Housing Bubble: San Francisco Home Prices Suffer Biggest Drop In Three Years





It was not only the annual growth rate of only 7.9%, matching the lowest since the European debt bubble burst in 2010, but also the sequential rate of price drops, at -0.9% - the biggest monthly drop in three years, or since January 2012 - that will once again be a subject for concern of housing watchers. Because should the price decline resume its acceleration without any emerging tailwinds to prop up the local housing market, then there will surely be some severe fallout such as this peak housing bubble example, in which as Curbed reported last week, a run down shack which listed for $799,000 sold for 50% more, or $1.2 million a few weeks later!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meet Andorra: Europe's Next Failed State





Nestling idyllically between France and Spain in the foothills of the Pyrenees, Andorra - which has enjoyed the benefits of European borders without the restrictions of EU membership - has seen its risk "increase beyond our expectations," according to S&P. As a reminder, when Cyprus was "templated" and depositors awoke with a 47% haircut, its total financial assets to GDP was around 8x, Andorra is now at a stunning 17x. As The Telegrpah explains, in the last three weeks, the state has been gripped by a banking crisis that threatens to take it to the brink; and Andorra, which is not a member of the eurozone but uses the single currency on an informal basis, would have no way of bailing them out (with no central bank or lender of last resort). In short, the country faces a catastrophe if its banks fall apart.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Euro Basis Swaps Keep Diving





While the euro itself has recovered a bit from its worst levels in recent sessions, euro basis swaps have fallen deeper into negative territory on par with the epic nosedive of 2011. We are not quite sure what the move means this time around, since there is no obvious crisis situation – not yet, anyway. A negative FX basis usually indicates some sort of concern over the banking system’s creditworthiness and has historically been associated with euro area banks experiencing problems in obtaining dollar funding. This time, the move in basis swaps is happening “quietly”, as there are no reports in the media indicating that anything might be amiss. Still, something is apparently amiss...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Is Russia Building Massive Underground Bomb Shelters?





Did you know that the Russians have a massive underground complex in the Ural mountains that has been estimated to be approximately 400 square miles in size?  In other words, it is roughly as big as the area inside the Washington D.C. beltway.  Back in the 1990s, the Clinton administration was deeply concerned about the construction of this enormous complex deep inside Yamantau mountain, but they could never seem to get any straight answers from the Russians.  The command center for this complex is rumored to be 3,000 feet directly straight down from the summit of this giant rock quartz mountain.  And of course U.S. military officials will admit that there are dozens of other similar sites throughout Russia, although most of them are thought to be quite a bit smaller.  But that is not all that the Russians have been up to.

 
GoldCore's picture

Global Risks To Irish Economy Being Ignored Again





Ignoring the considerable risks in the mid 2000s led to the global financial crisis. Irish politicians, bankers and financial experts, like their international counterparts, are slow learners ... 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US House Votes 348-48 To Arm Ukraine, Russia Warns Lethal Aid Will "Explode The Whole Situation"





Yesterday, in a vote that largely slid under the radar, the House of Representatives passed a resolution urging Obama to send lethal aid to Ukraine, providing offensive, not just "defensive" weapons to the Ukraine army. The resolution passed with broad bipartisan support by a count of 348 to 48. Russia's response came promptly: Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with ammunition and weapons would “explode the whole situation” in eastern Ukraine and Russia would be forced to respond “appropriately,” Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said at the end of February.“It would be a major blow to the Minsk agreements and would explode the whole situation,”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Short-Term Gains & Long-Term Disaster





It’s time for the Japanese to get seriously scared now. Like many other countries, Japan – and its political class – creates a false image of enduring prosperity by letting its central bank increasingly buy up ever more of its sovereign bonds. It’s a total sleight of hand, there is nothing left that’s real. There’s no there there. This is of course the same as what happens in Europe. And it’s precisely because central banks buy up all these bonds, that their yields scrape the gutter. It’s a blueprint for killing off the last bit of actual functionality in an economy.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Paul Krugman Is Wrong About The UK And Borrowing





Krugman wants his US readers to believe that all proper economists now agree that cutting deficits was a bad mistake, and it’s only self-interested finance types and ideologically-motivated politicians and think-tankers that take a different view. But that’s nonsense. Just think about it: “Everyone agrees that austerity was a mistake”… apart from every government in Europe except the Greeks, and the economists and many of the civil servants that advise them. Krugman and his fan-club do not constitute all serious opinion, much as they might like to regard themselves that way. It’s all very nice sitting in a US university office preaching to the Europeans (or, indeed, preaching in the New York Times)

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Is This How It All Begins to Unravel?





If the Fed indeed raises rates in June, we're likely to begin to see periphery sovereign debt defaults

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

How Governments Worked WIth the Banks to Create the $555 Trillion Interest Rate Bubble





Between 2000 and today, the global bond market has nearly TRIPLED in size. Today, it’s north of $100 trillion in size. And it’s backstopping over $555 trillion in derivatives trades.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Which European National Central Bank Is Most Likley To Become Insolvent, And What Happens Then?





In the aftermath of the ECB's QE announcement one topic has received far less attention than it should: the unexpected collapse of risk-sharing across the Eurosystem as a precursor to QE. This is what prompted "gold-expert" Willem Buiter of Citigroup to pen an analysis titled "The Euro Area: Monetary Union or System of Currency Boards", in which he answers two simple yet suddenly very critical for the Eurozone questions: which "currency boards", aka national central banks, are suddenly most at risk of going insolvent, and should the worst case scenario take place, and one or more NCBs go insolvent what happens then?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

We Must Rethink "Everything" If We Are To Survive This Strange New World





These negative rates that we see in Europe are a first glimpse of fiat currency destruction due to imploding economies.  And again the negative rates are nominal rates meaning they are negative by way of something beyond inflation.  Specifically they are moving to their natural minimum state of valuelessness because the economy is no longer strong enough to provide alternative investments for the fiat currency.  Fiat currency is shown then not to be a storage of value whatsoever.  But only a representation of strength of its respective economy.  As the economy goes to zero so does the value of its currency.  This point is exceedingly imperative to understand in our current global environment.

 

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Greece is Just the Tip of the Iceberg for the $100 Trillion Bond Bubble





This is why the Greek debt crisis continues without end. The minute Greek bondholders have to take a REAL haircut, the wheels come off the EU and the $100 trillion bond bubble finally blows up.

 
 
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