Sovereign Debt

Historic Milestone: Negative Yielding Debt Surpasses $10 Trillion For The First Time

The world passed a historic milestone in the past week when according to Fitch negative-yielding government debt rose above $10 trillion for the first time, which as the FT adds envelops an increasingly large part of the financial markets "after being fuelled by central bank stimulus and a voracious investor appetite for sovereign paper." It also means that almost a third of all global government debt now has a negative yield.

Global Markets Flat, Coiled Ahead Of Today's Risk Events: OPEC And The ECB

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

"An Unusual Number Of Known Unknowns" - These Are The Key Event Risks In June

In June there will be "an unusual number of known unknowns from several sources. June 2016 is a month in which the number of event risks is particularly high. In our baseline scenarios we do not see market upsets, but the potential is there: Japanese fiscal policy; meetings of the ECB, Fed and BoJ; new ECB policy implementation; a German Constitutional Court ruling; the UK referendum; elections in Spain; and a decision on the FTT are all thrown into the mix."

State Of The States: New Jersey's Problems Are Not "Mathematically Solvable"

While the warning flags are raging in Illinois and Connecticut, JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest states that New Jersey's problems are "not mathematically solvable." The stunning admission from a status-quo-sustaining bank that is “very focused on the total indebtedness of US states," should be worrisome enough but as Cembalest explains the answer to a debt problem is not always piling up more debt - "when debt reaches a certain level, the can kicking is over and difficult decisions need to be made;" the issue is to address the root of the problem, which can be a delicate and at times politically incorrect topic.

Trumped! Washington's Fiscal Hypocrisy Is Too Rich For Words

You have to love it when one of Donald Trump’s wild pitches sends the beltway hypocrites into high dudgeon. But his rumination about negotiating a discount on the Federal debt was priceless. No sooner did the 'unschooled' Trump mention out loud what is already the official policy of the US government than a beltway chorus of fiscal house wreckers commenced screaming like banshees about the sanctity of Uncle Sam’s credit promises.

US Treasuries Account For A Stunning 60% Of All Global Positive Yielding Debt

Here is why US yields are, if anything, set to decline more: on the other hand, the US accounts for almost 60% of all positive yielding debt and 89% of the positive yielding debt which has a tenor less than 1YR (Figure 4). Also, US debt accounts for 74% of the positive yielding G10 debt in the 1 – 5YR sector.

Satyajit Das Is "Astonished Investors Haven't Raised Pitchforks At Policy-Makers"

"They’re going to have to stop people from taking out cash... I would argue that it’s not going to be able to be dealt with, and it creates enormous social and political pressures… What we’re going to see is a period of financial repression, which is very, very dangerous... I honestly don’t know how it’s going to end. In the 1920s and 1930 when similar pressures built up, it didn’t actually have a very good ending."

It's The Debt Stupid: Scotiabank Warns "At Some Point 'The Future' Becomes 'Today'"

Low interest rates attempt to buy time. The idea is to bring consumption forward until the economy heals on its own as capital projects are completed. But those projects never began this time. The end result is ever-higher debt that borrows more and more from the future. Unfortunately, it borrows from the future without making the future any brighter through solutions to root causes of economic ailments. At some point, the “future” becomes “today”.

Malaysian Ringgit Tumbles After 1MDB Default Raises Spectre Of Sovereign Failure

Update: after widening by 2bps earlier, Malaysia CDS is now +4 at 167bps and starting to move as macro "analysts" finally catch up on the entire story and comprehend the implications.

Malaysian CDS rose to near 3-month highs and the Ringgit has spiked over 300 pips - back near recent lows - after the Malaysian slushfund government investment fund 1MDB is reportedly in default. This is exactly the scenario we laid out last week that initially sent the currency lower and CDS higher, as the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund has by all appearances started a potential waterfall default on Malaysian sovereign debt (due to cross-default triggers at the sovereign).