Sovereign Default

Next Up For Venezuela: PDVSA's Inevitable Default

"By cutting access to an essential source of funding, the Trump administration is precipitating the default of PDVSA and, given the key economic role of the company, of Venezuela."

South Korean Credit Risk Spikes Above China's As Kim Chooses "Path Of No Return"

For the first time in four years, the credit market sees more risk of a South Korean sovereign default/devaluation than China. After months of hit money flows in EM stocks sending KOSPI to record highs in the face of rising nuclear tensions with its neighbor, this week saw investors crack as Daiwa analysts warned "Kim looks to have chosen a path of no return."

What Trump's Venezuela Sanctions Will Do To Oil Prices: Barclays Explains

"A sharper and longer disruption could raise oil prices at least $5-7/b and flatten the curve structure despite an assumed return of some OPEC supply, a more robust US shale response, and weaker demand. It may be just the opportunity OPEC needs to exit its current strategy." - Barclays

Here Are The Best Hedges Against A Le Pen Victory

According to BofA, the best ways to hedge increased risks of a potential Eurosceptic win in the upcoming French election is favouring 10y peripheral spread wideners in Spain vs France, longs in 5y5y Germany and 5y Dutch sovereign CDS. In the options space, the banks recommends going long vol with a hybrid 6m10y strangle. In inflation, it likes 5y5y French CPI v HICP widener and a long 30y OATei breakeven vs inflation swap.