"... there is nothing new under the sun that shines in the Policy Activists' Universe. Negative interest rates sound new and 'unconventional,' but they are nothing more than an extension of this nostrum. Undertaken in the name of promoting inflation, they are really nothing more than taxation of (and ultimately confiscation of) liquid wealth. They are 'unconventional' only in the context that as time goes on, the policies of state acquisition of wealth must become ever more creative...the growth of societies trying these schemes diminishes. Long-term capital moves from growth-enhancing productive investment, which dries up as it increasingly gets channeled into the hands of the state. The fibers of the economic morality that drive growth get frayed..."
Latest Shock From Europe's Refugee Crisis: Austria Right-Wing Party Sweeps First Round Of Presidential ElectionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2016 14:22 -0400
The fallout of popular anger emanating from Europe's refugee crisis continued today with a dramatic result from the first round of Austria's presidential election, where initial results showed that the candidate of the Freedom Party, Austria's right-wing, anti-immigrant party has swept his competition, gathering over 35% of the vote and leaving the other five candidates far behind.
For a century, elites have worked to eliminate monetary gold, both physically and ideologically, and yet, like Banquo’s ghost, gold insists on its seat at the monetary table. After decades as net sellers of gold, central banks became net buyers in 2010. A scramble for gold has begun... When it comes to monetary elites, watch what they do, not what they say.
After warning last year of a "practically unavoidable" hard-landing to come in China, George Soros unleashed his central-planner-crushing self last night on the great red ponzi. As we noted last night, Soros warned the "parabolic" rise in credit is very worrisome, and "eerily reminiscent of US in 2007-8," specifically adding that "most of the money that banks are supplying is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive." Soros' full discussion can be found below...
One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour. However, unlike last month's "quad-bazooka", this time the market expects far less from Draghi. “Having pulled put the monetary bazooka in March, the market is sensibly expecting no further policy measures from the ECB,”
The biggest catalyst for overnight markets, first reported on this site, was the announcement by Kuwait that its oil workers had ended their strike which disrupted oil production in the 4th largest OPEC producer for 3 days cutting it by as much as 1.7 mmb/d, and had served to offset the negative news from the Doha debacle. Kuwait Petroleum also added that it would boost output to 3m b/d within 3 days, which in turn has pressured the price of oil overnight, and the May WTI contract was back to just over $40 at last check, sliding 2%. Not helping things was a very dejected Venezuela oil minister Eulogio Del Pino who said at a conference in Moscow that he sees oil prices returning to lows in 3-4 weeks if oil producers can't make a deal. For now the algos - and central banks - disagree.
Ripley's believe it or not world continues. Earlier today, Hong Kong's Hang Seng market entered a bull market, rising 20% from its February lows, just as Hong Kong retail sales plunged 20.6%, the bigest drop since 1999 and then moments ago, in a move that pushed the Chinese Yuan stronger at least initially, S&P revised its Chinese outlook to negative, saying the economic rebalancing is likely to proceed more slowly than had expected over next 5 years and warning about China's debt load.
Amid secular stagnation, the Eurozone's old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. Brussels can no longer avoid hard political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the euro.
"The escape options are a mixture of the ineffectual, the limited, the risky, the foolhardy or the excessively slow. As Japan’s recent experiments have demonstrated, upping the monetary dosage alone is not enough to cure the affliction. Indeed, to the extent that monetary stimulus only encourages a further wave of risk-taking within financial markets – often outside of the mainstream banking system - it may only perpetuate unstable deflationary stagnation."
Some reversals of financial trends prove so momentous they define the generation in which they occur. The stock market crash in 1929 kicked off the Great Depression, which ushered in the welfare and then the warfare state and redefined the relationship between government and citizens. Bonds and stocks began their bull market runs in the early 1980s. Now, those markets are fonts of optimism increasingly unhinged from reality. The US has come full circle. The New Deal and World War II marked a massive shift of resources and power to the federal government. Conversely, financial reversal will fuel a virulent backlash against the government and its central bank.
The owners don't really care if we cheer for the black and gold team, or the blue and silver team, as long as you do cheer.
As the dollar weakens, it supports the most beaten down, energy, sector (which has now undergoing a record short squeeze), but it ultimately will pressure the broader market lower through Tech and Momo. As Kolanovic called it: "a market trapped by the USD."
Beware, we are now spiraling headlong into a collapse thanks to a nightmarish NIRP "doom loop" from which the global cabal of central bankers' gone full-Krugman will not allow us to escape.
The ECB's "whatever it takes" ponzi strategy of keeping the dream alive in Europe's financial system has finally been caught as rapid collapse in the banking system is contagiously spreading to peripheral sovereigns once again. Portugal risk spreads are up 120bps in the last 3 weeks and Spain and Italy are soaring over 35 and 50bps respectively as the almost self-dealing nature of banks buying "risk-free" EU bonds and repoing for cash via The ECB comes home to roost...