Sovereigns

Tyler Durden's picture

European Sovereign Risk Soars As Bank Contagion Spreads





The ECB's "whatever it takes" ponzi strategy of keeping the dream alive in Europe's financial system has finally been caught as rapid collapse in the banking system is contagiously spreading to peripheral sovereigns once again. Portugal risk spreads are up 120bps in the last 3 weeks and Spain and Italy are soaring over 35 and 50bps respectively as the almost self-dealing nature of banks buying "risk-free" EU bonds and repoing for cash via The ECB comes home to roost...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Paying A Corporation To "Buy" Its Debt? It's Coming Soon, Jim Reid Warns





As a result of the rush to global NIRP, which now sees central banks and their sovereigns accounting for over 25% of global GDP, amounting to around $6 trillion in government bonds, trading with negative yields, a question has emerged: when will corporate bonds follow this govvie juggernaut and how soon until investors pay not government but companies to borrow? That is the focal piece in today's note by our favorite DB credit strategist Jim Reid who muses as follows.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

F(r)actions Of Gold





If the eurodollar and wholesale banking system had been sliced to such a thin margin again by 2011 so as to so heavily depend on the modern duality of gold, it not only would not survive it literally could not survive. The paper dilution we see now may just be that judgement finally seeking open admission.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Italy Races To Defuse €200 Billion Bad Loan Time Bomb With "Bad Bank"





"When the market speaks, as it has done in recent days, it is right that bank executives and shareholders comprehend the need for serious and swift intervention."

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Bullion’s 2016 Upleg





Gold is poised to rebound dramatically this year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows. The drivers of gold’s weakness have soared to such extremes that they have to reverse hard. The resulting heavy buying from dominant groups of traders will fuel gold’s 2016 upleg.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Does The Future Hold For Negative Rates In Europe? Goldman Answers





While the market might have been disappointed by the ECB’s “underdelivery in December, it came as a relief for the Riksbank, the SNB, the Norges Bank, and the Nationalbank who are effectively forced to cut each time the ECB eases or risk seeing upward pressure on their respective currencies. That dynamic has led to a veritable race to the Keynesian bottom with Norway as the last man standing in terms of conducting monetary policy with rates above zero. As we enter the new year, a number of questions remain regarding Europe's headlong plunge into NIRP-dom.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2015 Year In Review: "Terminal Phase" Excess & Peak Cognitive Dissonance





Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Carmen Reinhart Warns "Serious Sovereign Debt Defaults" Are Looming





As 2016 begins, there are clear signs of serious debt/default squalls on the horizon. We can already see the first white-capped waves.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2015 Year In Review - Scenic Vistas From Mount Stupid





“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Amid FX Reserve Liquidation, These Are The Countries JP Morgan Says Are Most Vulnerable





While EM sovereigns as a group may be in better shape now in terms of “original sin” (i.e borrowing heavily in foreign currencies) than they were during say, the Asian Currency Crisis, the confluence of factors outlined above means no one is truly “safe” in the current environment as moving from liquidation back to accumulation will entail a sharp reversal in commodity prices and a pickup in the pace of global growth and trade.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

BIS Warns That "Uneasy Calm" In Markets May Be Shattered By Fed Hike Imperiling $3.3 Trillion In EM Debt





"Very much in evidence, once more, has been the perennial contrast between the hectic rhythm of markets and the slow motion of the deeper economic forces that really matter. Markets can remain calm for much longer than we think. Until they no longer can."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"How Is This Possible" Deutsche Bank Asks, Looking At The Canary In The Junk Bond Mine





"The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong..."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Equities vs 'Everything Else' - Deutsche Bank Warns "One Of These Sides Has To Be Wrong"





The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface – including weak commodities, tightening credit, retrenching consumer spending – being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong in its assessment of the current macro environment, and seeing both of them extending well into the future appears unlikely to us.

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Remains “Best Insurance For A Crisis” - Ficenec





Editor’s Note: The tragic events in Paris, terrorism and war throughout the world, show geopolitical risk remains high.  These risks will likely impact economies and financial markets and will see continuing safe haven demand for gold. “The future is uncertain and gold is the most effective insurance against that.”

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!