Sovereigns

Is Bankruptcy For Illinois The Answer?

Could a formal bankruptcy proceeding for the State of Illinois be the answer to it’s fiscal crisis? If you think that’s out of the question, as many do, you’re wrong.

Will Thursday's Final TLTRO Finally Spark Carry Trades?

On Thursday, the ECB will hold its fourth tender under the TLTRO-II (Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations) programme. A large take-up is expected. A poll published by Reuters had a  median forecast of EUR 125bn net borrowing, with estimates as high as EUR 300bn. From a rates perspective, what matters is whether these funds will trigger flows into the bond or swap markets as banks set up carry trades.

Paul Brodsky: "Stagflation On The Horizon"

Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.

BIS Admits TARGET2 Is A Stealth Bailout Of Europe's Periphery

"In the period leading up to mid-2012, T2 balances grew strongly due to intra-euro area capital flight. At the time, sovereign market strains spiked and redenomination risk came to the fore in parts of the euro area. Private capital fled from Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain into markets perceived to be safer, such as Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands."

The Coming Bear Market

The bears are dead. Long live the bears. And that, in a nutshell, describes every bubble and emerging bear market there ever was...

Fitch Warns Trump Administration Could Lead To Global Economic Disaster

"US policy predictability has diminished, with established international communication channels and relationship norms being set aside and raising the prospect of sudden, unanticipated changes in US policies with potential global implications. In Fitch's view, the present balance of risks points toward a less benign global outcome."