Stagflation

'Soft' Data Snaps - Philly Fed Drops Most In 11 Months As Stagflation Surges

With only 'soft' survey data supporting any hope of proclaiming economic success post-Trump (as 'hard' data has tumbled), the cracks in that sentiment are starting to show. Philly Fed's business outlook tumbled from 33 year highs in March (falling the most since March 2016). Prices Paid surged in March as New Orders stagnated and general business activity tumbled.

Paul Brodsky: "Stagflation On The Horizon"

Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.

Goldman Downgrades Stocks One Day Before The Fed: "Asymmetry For Equities Is Getting Worse"

"With growth momentum nearing its peak and rates increasing further with a hawkish Fed, the asymmetry for equities is turning increasingly negative. This also means more vulnerability to potential shocks, e.g., from European politics, US policy, commodities and China. Given the asymmetry for equities is getting worse, we downgrade equities to Neutral for 3m."

Yield Curve Collapse & The Fed's "Surprising Economic Strength"

As Lael Brainard piled on The Fed's sudden utter hawkishness, following Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, and Williams, we noticed a common thread behind the need to hike rates in March - each implicitly or explicitly noted America's "surprisingly strong economy." This led to a stunning WTF moment...

"Manufacturing Is Far From Booming" - PMI Drops Despite Surge In ISM New Orders

With real spending declining and core durables goods orders and shipments fading, it's perhaps not a surprise that Markit PMI Manufacturing turned lower in Feb to 54.2 (missing expectations) with their chief economist warning "manufacturing is far from booming." Of course, just as with China, ISM provided an opposite perspective on US Manufacturing, beating expectations and rising to Aug 2014 highs.

Are Rate Hikes Bad For Gold?

Gold does not necessarily rise and fall with interest rates, jewelry demand in India, or any other widely believed nonsense. Rather, gold has moved in conjunction with perceptions as to whether or not the Fed and central banks have everything under control.

Alan Greenspan: Ron Paul Was Right About The Gold Standard

"When I was Chair of the Federal Reserve I used to testify before US Congressman Ron Paul... we had some interesting discussions... We would never have reached this position of extreme indebtedness were we on the gold standard, because the gold standard is a way of ensuring that fiscal policy never gets out of line."

What Catalyst Will Start The Next Bear Market: Here Is Wall Street's Response

When BofA conducted its monthly Fund Managers' Survey, and asked what is the most likely bear market catalysts, the responses were as follows: "protectionism" = 34%, "higher rates" = 28%, "financial event" = 18%, "weaker EPS" = 15%. The "smart money" also said that the best protectionist investment is one: gold.