Stagflation

"Costs Are Rising, Wages Are Dropping" - The 'Real' Economy That Obama Left For Trump

As President Obama held his last press conference this afternoon, basking in the warm afterglow of an over-sampled poll showing his favorability near record highs, it would appear he (and the press corps) forgot to mention that for most Americans - the 80% in production and nonsupervisory roles - this morning's data showed real wages actually dropping for the first time since 2013. Not exactly the rosy picture of economic growth being spun by the media as Obama transitions to Trump.

RBC Explains Why The Market Is Dumping, Adds "This Is Not The Big Short"... Yet

"The driver for the acceleration of ‘reversal trades’ yesterday into the overnight was the Barnum-esque circus of a press conference yesterday from President-elect Trump. Expectations were built for a more “Presidential” tone, with more granular ‘policy talk.' We got a “goat rodeo” instead, and it spooked a lot of the TACTICALLY long reflation crowd."

Hoover's Folly

It is premature to make investment decisions based on rhetoric and threats. It is also possible that much of this bluster could simply be the opening bid in what is a peaceful renegotiation of global trade agreements. Regardless, we must pay close attention as trade conflicts and their consequences can escalate quickly.

2017: The Year When The World Economy Starts Coming Apart

The history of previous civilizations rising and eventually collapsing is well documented. Our current economy seems to be following a similar pattern... Our fundamental problem is the fact that neither high nor low energy prices are now able to keep the world economy operating as we would like it to operate.

Stagflation Signs Build As US Manufacturing Surveys Hit 2-Year Highs

Despite the weakness in 'hard' industrial production data, US Manufacturing 'soft' survey data from ISM and Markit surged in November and December. PMI rose to 54.3 final for December - a 21-month high - with employment rising and inventory-building. However, stagflation concerns continue to build as new orders declined and input price inflation accelerated. ISM rose to its highest since Dec 2014 with prices paid soaring to the highest since June 2011.

Kunstler: 2017 Is When The Wheels Finally Come Off

The American people have been punked by their own government and their central bank, the Federal Reserve, for years and the jig is now up. In 2017 both will lose their authority and legitimacy, a very grave matter for the survival of this republic.

Stagflation Signals Flashing: Chicago PMI Drops, New Orders Slide As Prices Spike

Following November's exuberant spike to Jan 2015 highs, December saw Chicago Purchasing Managers lose some Trumpian hope as the index slid from 57.6 to 54.6 with new orders, production, and inventories all fell. It seems the 'hard' industrial production and durable goods data was right after all and the sentiment-fueled 'soft' surveys once again over-reached, and with prices paid rising, stagflation signals are flashing.

Paul Craig Roberts Worries "What Is Henry Kissinger Up To?"

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger is reportedly advising US president-elect Donald Trump how to "bring the United States and Russia closer together to offset China’s military buildup." If we take this report at face value, it tells us that Kissinger, an old cold warrior, is working to use Trump’s commitment to better relations with Russia in order to separate Russia from its strategic alliance with China.

The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

Assuming Deutsche Bank is correct, the result would be the scariest forecast bond bulls have seen in years: a 10-Year TSY whose yield fades all gains attained during the past decade, in the span of just two short years, hitting 4.5% in early 2019. The adverse implications from such a fast, steep move on all asset classes, not just bonds, would be devastating.

OECD Boosts Global Growth Forecasts On Trump Optimism

The details of any Trump growth plan may not be available for a long time, but the general sentiment that Trump's fiscal spending boost will be good for global growth was enough for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development which on Monday said that U.S. and global economic growth would be boosted by increases in spending and tax cuts promised by the President-elect.