"Our “Japanification” theme argues for big, fat, volatile trading ranges being the norm. The rallies (Japan rallied +20% every year during the 1990s (Chart 8) and the fades are always driven by Policy (panic & complacency), Profits (troughs & peaks in PMI’s) & Positioning (fear & greed). As bulls begin to dominate, confidence in the macro improves & the Fed starts to talk-up prospect of rate hikes, we would use Q2 to add to volatility exposure." - BofA
The Fed cannot claim the economy is strong while maintaining "emergency" policies for seven years straight. We're heading for stagflation.
It is commonly assumed that the gold price and interest rates move in opposite directions. Like all assumptions about prices, sometimes it is true and sometimes not. The market today is all about synthetic gold, gold which is referred to but rarely delivered. The current relationship is therefore one of relative interest rates, because positions in synthetic gold are financed from wholesale money markets. This is why a rumour that interest rates might rise sooner than expected, if it is reflected in forward interbank rates, leads to a fall in the gold price. To the extent that this happens, the gold price has been captured by the modern banking system, but it was not always so.
Despite risk assets enjoying a few weeks in the sun our failsafe recession indicator has stopped flashing amber and turned to red. Newly released US whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. Historically all recessions are effectively caused by slumps in business investment driven by a profits downturn.
Those betting against Goldman Sach’s retail investment advice have generally been on the right side of things. The same thing is about to happen again. “Short gold! Sell gold!” said Goldman’s head commodity trader, Jeff Currie, during a CNBC “Power Lunch” interview. Currie’s advice was in response to the question “Is there any commodity you are recommending that can help our viewers make some money?” Currie’s provided several reasons for shorting gold, blatantly wrong.
SEVERAL ON FOMC ARGUED AGAINST APRIL HIKE AS SOME FAVORED IT
PARTICIPANTS HAD 'RANGE OF VIEWS' ON APRIL HIKE
MANY ON FOMC SAW BIGGER GLOBAL RISKS WARRANTING POLICY CAUTION
In its effort to maintain a weak recovery the Fed has created the worst environment possible = stagflation.
"We think that the recent rally in risk assets gained much from dovish actions and messages from central banks, in particular the ECB, Fed and the PBoC. One can only applaud the seriousness and pro-activeness that central banks apply to their mandates. But aren’t investors counting too much on central banks carrying the day if not the cycle? This analyst thinks so, without disparaging their efforts, as central banks are almost out of ammo, and their tools are not well suited to handle the problems of slowing company profits and productivity."
"I think stagflation is starting to show - that idea of stronger nominal growth but weaker real growth is starting to show up across the economy. It certainly is showing up with real personal consumption slowing; it's showing with slower job creation growth as the wage rate rises, and it's showing up in weaker profits as the share of labor income rises reducing profit margins for corporations."
Wage inequality is really a sign of a deeper problem; basically it reflects an economic system that is not growing rapidly enough to satisfy everyone. Our basic problem is that the world economy is growing so slowly that the ordinary workers at the bottom find themselves with less than an adequate quantity of goods and services. This problem seems to be getting worse rather than better, over time, making the problem a political issue.
Slapping fees on imports (which by the way is illegal in treaties such as the WTO) will not solve the larger problems of reduced employment, stagnant wages and rising income inequality. To make a dent in those issues, we'll need to tackle central bank and central-state policies that have pushed finance and speculative churn to supremacy over the productive economy.
"Keynesianism has always been at war with savings since its principle tenet is that savings are bad, consumption is good. The Keynesian central planning authorities at the Fed and elsewhere would like to see a cashless society because keeping cash can be a form of savings instead of consumption. I think we are headed toward a cashless society unless the public wakes up and begins to protest this... which is why the establishment despises Trump as the figurehead for this awakening...If I were Donald Trump I would also double or triple my personal security detail."
On Sunday, millions of Brazilians took to the streets to call for the ouster of President Dilma Rousseff, who is thought to have cooked the fiscal books in 2014. She’s not yet implicated (directly anyway) in the long-running Carwash probe, but some think that may change soon as the investigation seems to get closer and closer to her officer with each passing week. But it’s not just corruption that Brazilians are fed up with. It's the economy, stupid...
In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. "According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger...That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship." For those who don’t believe in astrological forecasts, there are plenty of other reasons to anticipate sustained volatility in 2016 that strips certainty and cash from bulls and bear alike.