Stagflation

Tyler Durden's picture

June Full-Time Jobs Plunge By Over Half A Million, Part-Time Jobs Surge By 800K, Most Since 1993





Is this the reason for the blowout, on the surface, payroll number?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Previewing Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Number: The Key Things To Look For





  • Citigroup 190K
  • HSBC 200K
  • Goldman Sachs 210K
  • UBS 215K
  • JP Morgan 220K
  • Deutsche Bank 225K
  • Bank of America 225K
  • Barclays 250K
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Flat Equity Futures Prepare For Big Move Following Econ Data Avalanche





Once again, US equity futures are roughly unchanged (while Treasurys have seen a surprising overnight bid coming out of Asia) ahead of an avalanche of macroeconomic news both in Europe, where the ECB will deliver its monthly message, and in the US where we will shortly get jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI due later. Of course the most important number is the June NFP payrolls and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate, which consensus expects at 215K and 6.3%, although the whisper number is about 30K higher following yesterday's massive ADP outlier. Nonetheless, keep in mind that a) ADP is a horrible predictor of NFP, with a 40K average absolute error rate and b) in December the initial ADP print was 151K higher than the nonfarms. Those watching inflation will be far more focused on hourly earnings, expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 1.9% Y/Y. Should wages continue to stagnate and decline on a real basis, expect to hear the "stagflation" word much more often in the coming weeks.

 
EconMatters's picture

No Inflation, Thanks to ObamaCare





The government now has another measure which under-reports inflation by accounting chicanery...

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Japan is Dropping Hints of a Potential Exit Strategy





Weak GDP growth with major currency devaluation? This is called stagflation. And it’s causing the Bank of Japan some doubt.

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Standard Economic Models Don’t Work - Our Economy Is A Network





The story of energy and the economy seems to be an obvious common sense one: some sources of energy are becoming scarce or overly polluting, so we need to develop new ones. The new ones may be more expensive, but the world will adapt. Prices will rise and people will learn to do more with less. Everything will work out in the end. It is only a matter of time and a little faith. In fact, the Financial Times published an article recently called “Looking Past the Death of Peak Oil” that pretty much followed this line of reasoning. However, energy common sense doesn’t work because the world is finite.

 
GoldCore's picture

China’s Largest Gold Company Seeks To Become Kingmaker In Gold Market





China Gold, China’s largest gold conglomerate with primary interests in mining and also refining, is on the hunt for global acquisitions and partnerships and  appears to have designs on becoming a kingmaker in the global gold market ... We are witnessing a paradigm shift as gold moves from the West to China and the East. The ramifications of that paradigm shift have yet to be appreciated. 


 
Tyler Durden's picture

Paul Volcker Proposes A New Bretton Woods System To Prevent "Frequent, Destructive" Financial Crises





We found it surprising that it was none other than Paul Volcker himself who, on May 21 at the annual meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee, said that "by now I think we can agree that the absence of an official, rules-based cooperatively managed, monetary system has not been a great success. In fact, international financial crises seem at least as frequent and more destructive in impeding economic stability and growth." We can, indeed, agree. However, we certainly disagree with Volcker's proposal for a solution to this far more brittle monetary system: a new Bretton Woods.

 
GoldCore's picture

Silver - The World’s Most Undervalued Asset





Silver is undervalued when compared with gold, platinum, palladium, base metals including copper, oil, stocks (S&P, DJIA, Nasdaq etc) bonds and the U.S. dollar ... There are very few, if any assets that remain at the same price levels that they were more than 30 years ago ...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Peter Schiff: Meet "Lowflation" - Deflation's Scary Pal





In recent years a good part of the monetary debate has become a simple war of words, with much of the conflict focused on the definition for the word "inflation." Whereas economists up until the 1960's or 1970's mostly defined inflation as an expansion of the money supply, the vast majority now see it as simply rising prices. Since then the "experts" have gone further and devised variations on the word "inflation" (such as "deflation," "disinflation," and "stagflation"). And while past central banking policy usually focused on "inflation fighting," now bankers talk about "inflation ceilings" and more recently "inflation targets".  The latest front in this campaign came this week when Bloomberg News unveiled a brand new word: "lowflation" which it defines as a situation where prices are rising, but not fast enough to offer the economic benefits that are apparently delivered by higher inflation. Although the article was printed on April Fool's Day, sadly we do not believe it was meant as a joke.

 

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Don't Look For Economic Truths In the "Official" Numbers





We have an economy that is weaker than the headline numbers claim with inflation that is higher than the headline numbers claim.

That IS stagflation.
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Failure of Keynesianism





From a strictly empirical perspective, the Keynesian theory is a disaster. Positivism wise, it’s a smoldering train wreck. You would be hard-pressed to comb through historical data and find great instances where government intervention succeeded in lowering employment without creating the conditions for another downturn further down the line. No matter how you spin it, Keynesianism is nothing but snake oil sold to susceptible political figures. Its practitioners feign using the scientific method. But they are driven just as much by logical theory as those haughty Austrian school economists who deduce truth from self-evident axioms. The only difference is that one theory is correct. And if the Keynesians want to keep pulling up data to make their case, they are standing on awfully flimsy ground.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why The Next Global Crisis Will Be Unlike Any In The Last 200 Years





The following chart shows that we’ve turned the economic development process inside out. Ideally, advanced economies would stick to the disciplined financial practices that helped make them strong between the early-19th and mid-20th centuries, while emerging economies would “catch up” by building similar track records. Instead, advanced economies are catching down and threatening to throw the entire world into the kind of recurring crisis mode to which you’re accustomed if you live in, say, Buenos Aires. Here are eight reasons why things got so bad!

 
Pivotfarm's picture

Hyperinflation – 10 Worst Cases





Inflation is hot property today, hyperinflation is even hotter! 

 
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