In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. "According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger...That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship." For those who don’t believe in astrological forecasts, there are plenty of other reasons to anticipate sustained volatility in 2016 that strips certainty and cash from bulls and bear alike.
We are experiencing 1970’s style stagflation, coming from the supply side, not demand. Prices are going up because Norges Bank continues to destroy the Norwegian Krone, turning it into the Nordic Peso. This is where they are “hiding” the damage to save rest of the economy. For example, housing prices will rise in NOK but fall in USD or gold (universal commodity) terms. It’s a shell game, leading to long term decline or even worse, an unexpected period of elevated inflation, requiring a rapid rise in interest rates.
Attempts to control economic growth through government spending and/or manipulating interest rates (e.g., stimulate growth with low rates) generally leads to more severe crises. None of these things are recent phenomena, but can be found again and again throughout American history. Today, there is no party that favors true privatization or free markets. The solution, however, is simply to take as much power as possible out of the control of corruptible politicians and their special interest supporters.
Once markets figure out that the Fed is all hat and no cattle when it comes to fighting inflation, the bottom should drop out of the dollar, consumer price increases could accelerate even faster, and the biggest bubble of them all, the one in U.S. Treasuries may finally be pricked. That is when the Fed’s nightmare scenario finally becomes everyone’s reality.
The United States government has abandoned everyone except the rich.
Fundamentally, Credit is unstable. It is self-reinforcing and prone to excess. Credit Bubbles foment destabilizing price distortions, economic maladjustment, wealth redistribution and financial and economic vulnerability. 'Activist' government intervention and manipulation have pushed protracted Bubbles to the point of precarious systemic fragility.
"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth." - Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman
Conspiracies are real. There are many more of them than people are aware. Many government conspiracies are heavily documented by governments themselves with the official records demonstrating the conspiracies openly available to the public. These conspiracies alone are sufficient to chastise those uninformed Western peoples who go around saying, “our government would never kill its own people." False flag attacks are used by governments in order to pursue secret agendas that they cannot publicly acknowledge. It is late in the game. If you do not stand up for truth, you will have no freedom as there is no freedom without truth.
In the US the rule of law, and with it liberty, have been lost. With few exceptions, Americans are too ignorant and unconcerned to do anything about it. The longer the rule of law is set aside, the more difficult it is to reestablish it. Sooner or later the rule of law ceases even as a memory. No candidate in the upcoming election has made the rule of law an issue. Americans, even well informed ones, dramatically over-estimate the knowledge of presidents and the neutrality of the information that is fed to them by the various agencies and advisors. Information is power, and presidents get the information that Washington wants them to receive.
“It’s falling faster than any other currency as we see panic selling in the ruble after it breached the 80 per USD level. Some investors are selling at any price,”
My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.
"The trouble is that rents are running high not because house prices are booming and/or construction is sawing but because structurally new entrants to the housing market are renters not owners. This is reflected in the very low first time homebuyer rate, less than 30 percent."
Economists have put together models of how an economy works, but these models were developed years ago, when the world economy was far from limits. These models may have been reasonably adequate when they were developed, but there is increasing evidence that they don’t work in an economy that is reaching limits.
If you follow geopolitics, you might have noticed that many of the world’s emerging markets are beset with fractious political dynamics, violence, protests, and any number of other tail risks that could at any time mushroom into black swan events with ramifications for the developed world. As we head into 2016, it’s worth taking stock of the geopolitical events that have shaped EM in 2015 and it's also worth cataloguing what we know about the landscape for the coming year.
Brazil Releases Shocking GDP "Obituary": "It's Mutated Into An Outright Depression," Goldman ExclaimsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/01/2015 18:16 -0400
"At first read, the report recalls an obituary. There is no room for any growth in the coming quarters. The situation is really, really bad."