Stagflation

RBC: "This Is The $1 Trillion Question On Our Clients' Minds"

"The TRILLION dollar question is then reiterated: when does all of this “inflation as a good thing” tip over into “inflation with no growth”—aka STAGFLATION?  This continues to be the chief concern of clients on recent marketing swings."

Carlson Capital: Border Adjustment Tax Would Lead To "Global Depression"

"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."

US Services Industry Stabilizes: Firms Warn "Margins Squeeze Acting As A Brake On Employment"

Business activity in the US Services industry accelerated to its fastest since Nov 2015, according to the 'soft' survey data from Markit, but some firms noted that squeezed margins had acted as a brake on employment growth at their business units in January. ISM Services slipped lower with unadjusted new orders tumbling to their lowest since Jan 2016.

Global Inflation 'Surprise' Index Spikes To Highest Since 2011

The specter of global stagflation is looming ever larger as inflation across the world is beating analysts’ forecasts (even before the potential effect from Donald Trump’s economic policies) but economic growth expectations remain stagnant.

El-Erian Warns "We've Entered The 'Twitchier' Phase III Of The Trump Rally"

The post-election movements of U.S. stocks have been heavily influenced by policy. First they soared, then they traded in a narrow range. Now, Mohamed El-Erian warns, the markets have entered a period of greater volatility underpinned by a tug of war between the expectation of reflationary policies and the risk of stumbling into stagflation. Where we end up will be predominantly a political call.

"Costs Are Rising, Wages Are Dropping" - The 'Real' Economy That Obama Left For Trump

As President Obama held his last press conference this afternoon, basking in the warm afterglow of an over-sampled poll showing his favorability near record highs, it would appear he (and the press corps) forgot to mention that for most Americans - the 80% in production and nonsupervisory roles - this morning's data showed real wages actually dropping for the first time since 2013. Not exactly the rosy picture of economic growth being spun by the media as Obama transitions to Trump.

RBC Explains Why The Market Is Dumping, Adds "This Is Not The Big Short"... Yet

"The driver for the acceleration of ‘reversal trades’ yesterday into the overnight was the Barnum-esque circus of a press conference yesterday from President-elect Trump. Expectations were built for a more “Presidential” tone, with more granular ‘policy talk.' We got a “goat rodeo” instead, and it spooked a lot of the TACTICALLY long reflation crowd."