Standard Chartered

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Saudis Bring Oil War To Europe With Largest Price Discount Since 2009

With oil exports to Europe having slipped from 13% of Saudi's total to just 10% in the last six months, The FT reports, the de facto leader of OPEC has slashed its Official Selling Price (OSP) to Europe in an effort to regain market share. Saudi lowered its OSP for its Arab light crude grade in Europe by $1.30 a barrel for December, taking its discount to the weighted average of the North Sea Brent benchmark to $4.75 a barrel - the largest discount since February 2009... directly going after Russia's customer base.

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Frontrunning: November 4

  • Euro zone growth weak in October, China services rally (Reuters)
  • Stocks Rise With European Bonds on Stimulus Outlook; Euro Falls (BBG)
  • VW Sinks Deeper Into Crisis as Scandal Spreads to More Cars (BBG)
  • Republicans ask IRS to audit Clinton charity's finances (Reuters)
  • PBOC Inadvertently Boosts Stocks With Dated Zhou Comments (BBG)
  • As China’s Economy Slows, Consumers Pick Up Some of the Slack (WSJ)
  • Plane crashes in South Sudan, witnesses say dozens killed (Reuters)
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"Great Optimist" Faber Says "I Added To My Gold Position"

In an interview on CNBC's "Trading Nation," the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report editor revealed he may not be as bearish as some may think and that he is actually a “great optimist.”

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Global Rally Continues After PBOC "Unintentionally" Sparks Market Surge With Stale News, Largest 2015 IPO Prices

The most entertaining overnight story has to do with the latest farcical development in the Chinese "market" when just after open, it was reported that PBOC Governor Zhou said a trading link with Shenzhen will start this year which promptly sent all Chinese brokerages soaring, and the Shanghai Composite jumped over 3%. And then, out of the blue, the PBOC said the undated comments were actually as of May. As Bloomberg put it, "China’s central bank unintentionally sparked a surge in the nation’s stock market by publishing five-month-old comments from governor Zhou Xiaochuan that said a link between exchanges in Shenzhen and Hong Kong would start in 2015."

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Futures Flat Despite More Weakness Among European Banks, Volkswagen; Another Apple Supplier Warning

So far today's trading session has been a repeat of what happened overnight on Monday, when following a weak start on even more weak Chinese data, US equities soared on the first trading day of the month continuing their blistering surge since that dreadful September payrolls report, which as we showed was mostly catalyzed by a near record bout of short's being squeezed and covering, which accelerated just as the S&P broke the 2100 level.

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Yuan Soars Most In A Decade As China Moves To Relax Capital Controls

As Beijing fights to keep "Mr. Chen" and his "yellow loafers," tea, and Snickers bars from smuggling billions out of the country on behalf of Chinese citizens fearing an economic implosion and a double-digit deval, capital account convertibility may counterintuitively be one of the PBoC's most effective weapons as loosening capital controls will both calm the panicked masses and support the IMF SDR bit. Still, as Citi's David Lubin puts it, "China should expect to see gross capital outflows for the foreseeable future [and] it's not even clear that SDR inclusion will lead to a net capital inflow to China." 

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Futures Fizzle, Europe Red As Markets Ask: "What Do Central Banks Do Now?"

In our Chinese stock market wrap following Friday's unexpected rate cut, which saw the Shanghai Composite storm out of the gate, we said that "we would not be surprised to see China's stocks sliding back into the red very shortly as "sell the news" concerns return, and as the increasingly more addicted "markets" demand even more liquidity from central banks just to stay unchanged, let alone rise to new all time highs." Sure enough, with just minutes to go before the close, the SHCOMP wiped out all its daily gains and was set for a red close had it not been for the "national team" miraculous last minute intervention which was inevitable after Friday's PBOC rate cut, and which lifted the composite 0.5% into the green as the euphoria was rapidly evaporating.

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Frontrunning: October 9

  • Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)
  • FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)
  • Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)
  • Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)
  • Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)
  • A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)
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As A Shocking $100 Billion In Glencore Debt Emerges, The Next Lehman Has Arrived

And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."

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Yuan Rising: China Surpasses Japan To Claim Number Four Spot In Most Used Global Currencies

"The data are positive for the probability of the yuan getting into the SDR basket. It shows that the so-called devaluation in August, which wasn’t massive in value, hasn’t driven people away from using the yuan."

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Volkswagen's CEO Is Out, To Be Replaced By Porsche CEO Mueller: What's Next For The Troubled Carmaker

A series of dramatic moves at the helm of Germany's iconic carmaker leaves many wondering what's next. Here are some thoughts.

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China's Economy Continues To Crumble As Key Data Is Worst In 15 Years

China's global meltdown-inducing "adjustment" continues unabated as fixed asset investment is weakest since 2000.

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Frontrunning: September 11

  • One Volatile Week Could Seal Fed Stance After Years of Low Rates (BBG)
  • Fed to dominate week of central bank meetings (Reuters)
  • 30 years on, parallels with Plaza but currency universe very different (Reuters)
  • Wal-Mart's Suppliers Are Finally Fighting Back (BBG)
  • China's Rising CPI, Deepening PPI Deflation Challenges PBOC (BBG)
  • Petrobras spending plan already obsolete, new cuts likely (Reuters)
  • Bank of Montreal to Buy GE Capital’s Transportation-Finance Unit (WSJ)
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Presenting Five Channels Of Contagion From China's Hard Landing

Before China’s bursting equity bubble grabbed international headlines, and before the PBoC’s subsequent devaluation of the yuan served notice to the world that things had officially gotten serious in the global currency wars, all anyone wanted to talk about when it came to China was a "hard landing." Now that the yuan devaluation has all but proven that China has landed, and landed hard, here are the five channels of contagion.

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