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Previewing The September "Hurricane-Disrupted" Jobs Report

Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be... confusing. That is the (lack of) consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80,000 (down from the 3-month average of 185K), however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than 150K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as 260,000.

Frontrunning: September 12

  • Trump Plans Aggressive Road Show to Sell Tax Overhaul (BBG)
  • Trump to weigh more aggressive U.S. strategy on Iran (Reuters)
  • Florida Turns to Recovery as Irma Moves North (WSJ)
  • What to Expect at Apple’s Biggest Event in Years (BBG)
  • A $150 Billion Misfire: How Forecasters Got Irma Damage So Wrong (BBG)

The Single Biggest Bullish Catalyst For Oil

One of the key objectives for OPEC is to bring down inventories, a goal that has been elusive this year. But if the oil futures curve is anything to go by, the oil market is showing signs of tightening.

Frontrunning: July 31

  • HSBC, miners lift European shares as dollar holds near lows (Reuters)
  • Republicans Face Tough Choice: Repeal Obamacare or Cut Taxes (BBG)
  • Trump’s Decisions Deepen Divide Among Republicans (WSJ)
  • Koch Brothers Move to Back White House’s Tax-Cut Plan (BBG)
  • Maduro Waits for U.S. Response After Violent Venezuela Vote (BBG)

Chinese Satellite Data Hint At Ominous Manufacturing Slowdown

Chinese factory activity contracted last month for the first time in nearly a year when the Caixin PMI dipped below 50, the threshold for growth. And now, early indicators for the month of June – including one satellite-based measure - suggest that there’s more pain ahead for the manufacturing sector in the world’s second-largest economy.

A Stunned Wall Street Reacts To UK's Hung Parliament

It was supposed be a UK general election that solidified Conservative dominance, and boosted Brexit leverage. It ended up being the opposite, after British voters delivered a stinging rebuke to Prime Minister Theresa May and her ruling Conservative party, depriving her of a majority, resulting in a "hung parliament" and thrusting the country back into a new period of uncertainty as it prepares to depart from the European Union.

Reuters Goes To China, Discovers "Ghost Collateral"

"The first time I went, I saw the steel,” recalled Wang, an attorney at Beijing DHH Law Firm, which represents the Shanghai branch of CITIC. "Afterwards, the banker got in contact with me and said, ‘The pledged assets are no longer there"

World Money: Five Hidden Signals From The IMF

"By the time the final loss of confidence arrives, much of the damage will already have been done. The analytic key is to look for those minor events pointing in the direction of lost confidence in the dollar... With that information investors can take defensive measures before it’s too late."