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Frontrunning: October 9

  • Global stocks eye biggest rally in four years on Fed relief (Reuters)
  • FOMC Minutes Sap Confidence in Fed's 2015 Rate Hike Resolve (BBG)
  • Glencore to cut annual zinc production by a third (FT)
  • Tea Party wave that lifted Republicans threatens to engulf them (Reuters)
  • Why Kevin McCarthy Came to Quit Speaker Race (WSJ)
  • A U.S. Recession Just Got a Little More Likely (BBG)
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As A Shocking $100 Billion In Glencore Debt Emerges, The Next Lehman Has Arrived

And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."

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Yuan Rising: China Surpasses Japan To Claim Number Four Spot In Most Used Global Currencies

"The data are positive for the probability of the yuan getting into the SDR basket. It shows that the so-called devaluation in August, which wasn’t massive in value, hasn’t driven people away from using the yuan."

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Volkswagen's CEO Is Out, To Be Replaced By Porsche CEO Mueller: What's Next For The Troubled Carmaker

A series of dramatic moves at the helm of Germany's iconic carmaker leaves many wondering what's next. Here are some thoughts.

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China's Economy Continues To Crumble As Key Data Is Worst In 15 Years

China's global meltdown-inducing "adjustment" continues unabated as fixed asset investment is weakest since 2000.

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Frontrunning: September 11

  • One Volatile Week Could Seal Fed Stance After Years of Low Rates (BBG)
  • Fed to dominate week of central bank meetings (Reuters)
  • 30 years on, parallels with Plaza but currency universe very different (Reuters)
  • Wal-Mart's Suppliers Are Finally Fighting Back (BBG)
  • China's Rising CPI, Deepening PPI Deflation Challenges PBOC (BBG)
  • Petrobras spending plan already obsolete, new cuts likely (Reuters)
  • Bank of Montreal to Buy GE Capital’s Transportation-Finance Unit (WSJ)
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Presenting Five Channels Of Contagion From China's Hard Landing

Before China’s bursting equity bubble grabbed international headlines, and before the PBoC’s subsequent devaluation of the yuan served notice to the world that things had officially gotten serious in the global currency wars, all anyone wanted to talk about when it came to China was a "hard landing." Now that the yuan devaluation has all but proven that China has landed, and landed hard, here are the five channels of contagion.

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China Takes "10 Steps Back," Slaps 20% Reserve Requirement On Currency Forwards

Overnight, China decided to take steps to reduce "macro financial risks." And by that they mean "do something quick to help ease pressure on the yuan" and by extension, on the PBoC’s rapidly depleting FX reserves. To that end, starting October 15 banks will have to hold the equivalent of 20% of clients' FX forward positions with the PBoC, where the money will sit, frozen, for a year, at 0% interest.

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Brazil Throws In Towel On Budget; Citi Compares Fiscal Outlook To "Bloody Terror Film"

"In the meantime, in our (un)beloved country, there is something scarier than Freddy Krueger: our growth / fiscal outlook."

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Here We Go Again: US Equities Surge Even As Chinese Stock Market Rollercoaster Tumbles To 8 Month Low

It seemed like finally China's relentless and increasingly futile attempts to have a green stock close would work: interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, direct stock interventions, even threats on the Prime Minister's head, and just to make certain moments before the close news very deliberately broke that government funds are buying large financial stocks, especially state-owned banks, to support the index, in the latest clear signs of government support, the Shanghai Composite seemed on pace to end an unprecedented series of consecutive tumbles which have dragged the composite down nearly 1000 points, or 25% in one week, and then... red close, with the SHCOMP down 1.3% to 2927, and a stunned China watching in horror as the central bank and government lose control, and everything they throws at the biggest market bubble of 2015 does absolutely nothing.

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Frontrunning: August 19

  • $1 trillion in Emerging Market outflows in the past 13 months (FT)
  • German lawmakers back third Greek bailout (Reuters)
  • Dutch government faces test in "junkie" Greece debate (Reuters)
  • China offers selected banks medium term lending facility (Reuters)
  • Another "expert network" busted: Promontory settles over StanChart probe (FT)
  • Angola to Ship Most Crude in Four Years to Meet Asian Demand (BBG)
  • Hackers dump data online from cheating website Ashley Madison (Reuters)
  • Yuan’s Devaluation Brings Losses for Some (WSJ)
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Forget The Fake Statistics: China Is A Tinderbox

When China's tinderbox economy implodes, who will be left to bid up the world's surplus commodities and real estate?

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Is China's 'Black Box' Economy About To Come Apart?

After 30 years of torrid expansion, perhaps the single most consequential factor in China’s economy is how much of it is a “black box”: a system with visible inputs and outputs whose internal workings are opaque. China’s recorded history stretches back thousands of years, but in terms of applicable financial and economic parallels to the current economy, there is no precedent. China’s leadership is truly in uncharted waters. This in itself heightens the risk of miscalculation and basing policies on faulty premises.

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Frontrunning: August 6

  • Trump at center stage as Republicans square off in first debate (Reuters)
  • Cleveland Debate Offers GOP Hopefuls a Chance to Break Away from the Pack (WSJ)
  • Bank of England Keeps Key Interest Rate at 0.5% in 8-1 Vote (BBG)
  • Emerging stocks submerged, UK gears up for 'Super Thursday' (Reuters)
  • No IMF decision on Greek bailout until autumn, Swedish rep tells paper (Reuters)
  • Japan Heads Toward Nuclear Unknown With Post-Fukushima Restarts (BBG)
  • Activist Ackman Takes $5.5 Billion Stake in Snacks Giant Mondelez (WSJ)
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