Tom DeMark: "Today Is An Interim Low" Followed By A 5-8% Rebound, Then Another Selloff; China To Fall FurtherSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/20/2016 20:49 -0500
We're going to have a two-step affair: a low today, maybe tomorrow and then we rally and people take a deep breath. After we see that rally, maybe anywhere from a week and a half to three weeks, we decline again and I think that's coincident with the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index declining.
Official Washington is awash with tough talk about Russia and the need to punish President Putin for his role in Ukraine and Syria. But this bravado ignores Russia’s genuine national interests, its “red lines,” and the risk that “tough-guy-ism” can lead to nuclear war. In short, Russia is being offered only the binary choice: to acquiesce to the “benevolent” hegemon, or to prepare for war.
It has been a long way up and quick ride down for SunEdison but bad news keeps piling up for the hedge fund hotel even as it dead-cat-bounces again. As the stock bounces, just as it bounced in September after Steve Cohen's Point72 exposed their stake and JPM jumped to the rescue, uncertainty remains extreme. Amid a surge in debt and increasingly negative operating cash-flow, the plunge in stock (asset) price may have triggered a cross-collateral margin call of around $315 million. Furthermore, mass layoffs are on the cards as the CEO attempts to "optimize" the business.
Despite the arguably undemocratic, obfuscating nature of our nation’s campaign finance laws and the blatant corporatist agenda mandated by the Supreme Court, let’s attempt to break down the major sources of political spending so far in the 2016 presidential election. You may be surprised to find out who is donating money to your candidate — and how that contribution may affect future policy positions.
U.S. law enforcement agencies rank the threat of violence from anti-government extremists higher than the threat from radicalized Muslims, according to a report released Thursday by the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security (TCTHS). We have previously warned that any totalitarian apparatus implemented to fight an outside enemy, would ultimately be turned around and used upon the public domestically; and now it seems confirmed that the real enemy of the corrupt corporate state is none other than, “we the people.”
And so it begins... the intentional demonization of a growing segment of the U.S. population that rightly believes the government is run by a collective of thieving, corrupt, immoral sociopaths. Commingling dissent, violence and “right wing” ideology will be key in the ultimate division of government critics in these United States, and a successful attempt to scare people away from questioning a clearly degraded and parasitic status quo.
In 2014, the Firm launched the Point72 Academy. The Academy develops undergrads straight out of college into highly-skilled investors on an accelerated timeline.
From the day they start, Academy members have substantial responsibility and opportunities to contribute in a small team setting.
Today, more than half of Point72’s current Portfolio Managers started as Analysts and the Point72 Academy will grow that number over time.
The morphing of “terrorism” and “domestic dissent” into an all encompassing and convenient category known as “domestic terrorists” or “domestic extremists” has been a long time coming. It has always been our contention, and continues to be, that the oligarchs who have funneled all of the wealth to themselves since the 2008 banker bailouts know exactly what they are doing. They also know that it will eventually result in severe domestic unrest during the next cyclical downturn. As such, the agenda has been to utilize the entirety of the intelligence-industrial-military complex created by the “war on terror” against the domestic population once it recognizes how badly it has been looted.
The Long/Short Strategy for the New Reality
1. Go long companies that cater to the 1%.
2. Short companies that cater to the middle class.
3. Go long companies that cater to the poor.
In a stunning rebuke of Preet Bharara's insider-trading prosecutions record, Businessweek reports a federal appeals court overturned and threw out the guilty verdicts of two hedge fund managers, Todd Newman and Anthony Chiasson, ruling jury instructions tainted their verdicts and imperiling other cases brought in his multiyear probe. In a 28-page decision that could rewrite the course of insider trading law, sharply curtailing its boundaries, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in Manhattan tossed out the case on technicalities which could also lead to the release of SAC's Michael Steinberg - Bharara's signature prosecution - as Steinberg's lawyer remarked, "it sends a loud and clear message that the government will be rebuked when it tries to turn innocent conduct into a crime." So insider-trading is legal now... with the right lawyer and judge. We wonder how many shipments of Picassos to the three appeals court judges did the verdict cost Steve Cohen?
"... Shortly after returning from a trip in late 2009, Farmer erased electronic notes, in Microsoft Word format, that were stored on thumb drives, Zip drives and a shared drive at Citadel, agents wrote in a summary of one of the interviews with him. Farmer also threw away his handwritten notes because that was his normal practice and because they were incriminating, agents wrote. Farmer got rid of e-mails as well, according to their summary. “This,” they wrote, “wiped the slate clean."
It’s been obvious for quite some time that the so-called “war on terror” is nothing more than a fear-mongering induced power grab; a convenient excuse to strip the citizenry of its civil liberties and humanity. Many commentators, including myself, have predicted for years that the entire counter-terror juggernaut that has been constructed post-9/11 would be ultimately redirected upon the domestic population. Snowden’s heroic whistleblowing has already proven without a doubt that the government spy apparatus (along with tech company complicity) has been zeroed in on the domestic population for quite some time, but is the situation about to escalate? Are the feds so fearful of their own people, they are about to focus all their counter-terror energy on U.S. citizens? It appears so.
It seems Goldman Sachs is willing to do pretty much anything when it comes to maintaining SAC Capital (now Point72) Steve Cohen's liquidity. On the heels of last year's "stand by your man" moment in the midst of the insider-trading scandal, Goldman has kindly offered to provide Cohen another lifeline of liquidity - this time backed by his $1 billion art collection. As Bloomberg reports, Cohen pledged “certain items of fine art” under a security agreement which didn’t specify how much money was borrowed. As one art "investor" noted, this is not unusual, "hedge fund guys who manage their money wisely... look to put their art collections to work... If you can get liquidity out of your collection and pay only 250 basis points...it just makes sense." Sense, indeed!
The types of “research” SAC may acquire include, but are not limited to, the following:
- reports on or other information about particular companies or industries;
- economic surveys and analyses;
- consulting services regarding products, technologies, issuers or industries;
- non-mass-marketed financial publications (delivered in hard copy or electronically);
- computerized pricing and market data services;
- pre-trade and post-trade analytics, software and other products that generate market research, including research on optimal execution venues and trading strategies;
- advice from brokers-dealers on order execution, including advice on execution strategies, market color and the availability of buyers and sellers (and software that provides such market research);
One look at the chart below from the NYT, and a pattern emerges...