- Top China Banks Triple Debt Write-Offs as Defaults Loom (BBG)
- PBOC suspends open market operations again (Global Times)
- Eurozone bank shares fall after ECB outlines health check plan (FT)
- O-Care falling behind (The Hill)
- Key House Republican presses tech companies on Obamacare glitches (Reuters)
- J.P. Morgan Faces Another Potential Huge Payouta (WSJ)
- Yankees Among 10 MLB Teams Valued at More Than $1 Billion (BBG)
- Free our reporter, begs newspaper as China cracks down on journalists (Reuters)
- Peugeot Reviews Cost-Saving Alliance With GM (WSJ)
In the 21st century economy, if you want to stay employed, seek out a field that is ascending rather than declining. Most people understand that technology is fundamentally changing the nature of work and employment. These changes are also having a profound effect on the state of the US economy...
"Without realistic figures, a real debate on fiscal reform can’t begin”
The New York metro region’s recovery from Superstorm Sandy is well under way. Spending on restoration and rebuilding activities following a natural disaster is a potentially powerful economic stimulus to the affected area. Indeed, money from outside the region - in the form of federal aid and private insurance payments - flowing to the damaged areas in the region gives a temporary boost to economic activity. But, in the latest NYFed-driven tax-payer-funded research study, the PhDs ask "does this mean that Sandy - along with the federal aid and insurance payouts associated with it - was actually good for the region’s economy?" All sounds very Krugmanesque, however, hidden deep in the study is the awful truth... "So while this [stimulus driven] economic activity may have been boosted from such spending, the region’s net wealth hasn’t changed."
My guess is that in 2-3 years most folks in the country are going to hate Obamacare, but it it will be impossible to get rid of by then.
While Harvard historian Niall Ferguson's off-the-cuff remarks during the Q&A were in his words "as stupid as they were insensitive", the core message of his presentation was clear: the party of the last 20 years is now over and the longer we fail to address the real issues the bigger the hangover will be in the future. The central question Ferguson asks is whether our institutions, corporations and governments, are degenerating. As Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live notes Ferguson believes that without addressing the structural problems that plague the economy from production to employment – stimulus will fail. The reality is that the 'punch bowl' won't fix employment growth, economic growth or the rule of law.
Cannot be resolved by decapitating the yen
- WSJ picks up on excess "deposits over loans" theme, reaches wrong conclusion: Wads of Cash Squeeze Bank Margins (WSJ)
- SAC Is Bracing for Big Exodus of Funds (WSJ)
- Japan unveils Y10.3tn stimulus package (FT)
- China’s Inflation Accelerates as Chill Boosts Food Prices (BBG)
- Berlusconi Denies Responsibility for Italy Crisis (BBG)
- Fed hawks worry about threat of inflation (Reuters)
- And then the lunatics: Fed easing may not be aggressive enough: Kocherlakota (Reuters)
- BOJ Likely to Take Easing Steps (WSJ)
- Draghi Shifts Crisis Gear as ECB Focuses on Economy Inbox (BBG)
- Argentina Bondholders Lose Bid to Get State-Court Review (BBG)
- Regulators Find Major Euribor Shortcomings (WSJ)
- Basel III Punishes Dutch Over Risk That Isn’t (BBG)
- Bondholders in Crosshairs as Merkel Travels to Cyprus (BBG)
As reported previously, when Bloomberg broke the news two days ago, it now appears that the official appointment of Jack Lew as the new SecTres will take place tomorrow. From Bloomberg: "President Obama will announce tomorrow that White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew is his pick for Treasury secretary, person familiar with the matter tells Bloomberg’s Han Nichols." In other words - goodbye Timmah: best of luck writing your new book, which in the tradition of every ex-public servant who departs the government where they kept their mouths firmly shut, we assume will be all about bashing Tim Geithner.
Bloomberg is out after hours with news that was expected by many, but which was yet to be formalized, until now: namely that following today's flurry of contntious nomination by Obama, the latest and greatest is about to be unveiled - Jack Lew, Obama's current chief of staff, is likely days away from being announced as Tim Geithner's replacement as the new Treasury Secretary of the United States. In other words, Jack will be the point person whom the people who truly run the Treasury, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, chaired by JPM's Matt Zames (who just happens to also now run the notorious JPM Chief Investment Office which uses excess deposits to gamble - yes, you really can't make this up) and Goldman's Ashok Varadhan, global head of dollar-rate products and FX trading for North America (recently buying a $16 million pad at 15 CPW) will demand action from.
Cliff Asness: "Nobody, Left Or Right, Really Thinks The Math Works, No Matter What They Say In Public"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2013 14:47 -0500
The only way to finance a big European-style state is to have it paid for by massive taxation of everyone, mostly the middle class. Right now, we are avoiding honest debate on this fact. The central issue of our time is the debate over the size and scope of government. Two unpleasant but undeniable mathematical truths limit the feasible policy choices. The first truth is that the current tax rates cannot support the promises made to middle-class Americans. The second truth is that you cannot pay for the Life of Julia, or any vision of a cradle-to-grave welfare state, without massive and increasingly regressive middle-class taxes. Not only that, it's easy to tax middle-class assets and transactions but soaking the rich means taxing investments, and problematically, investments are the lifeblood of economic growth. The choice the country faces is simple. What we cannot have is the Life of Julia at no additional burden to 99 out of 100 of us. The way to boil the frog of freedom is slowly.
There was some confusion as to why yesterday various Eurozone consumer confidence indices posted a surprising jump and beat expectations virtually across the board: turns out Europeans had an advance warning of today's horrendous economic data among which we learned that Eurozone October unemployment just hit a record 11.7%, up 0.1% from September (we are trying to get data if the Eurozone is gaming its unemployment number the way the US does by collapsing its labor participation rate), with Italy unemployment surging to 11.1% from 10.8%, on expectations of a 10.9% print, French consumer spending in October was down 0.2%, compared to an unchanged reading in September, but far more troubling was that German retail sales imploded at a rate of 2.8%, the biggest monthly collapse in 4 years, and worse than even the most bearish forecast. Do we hear "Sandy's fault."
Farce #1: “Market value” and “free markets” have become a joke.
Farce #2: Private, self-assigned, fake value is being traded for public money at 100 cents on the dollar.
Farce #3: Printed money is backed by nothing.
Farce #4: We have a “free” enterprise system dominated by monopolies that force people to buy inferior goods and services at exorbitant rates.
Farce #5: High-level financial crimes, no matter how egregious or widespread, are not being prosecuted.
Farce #6: Risk is gone. Now there is only liability borne by citizens.
Farce #7: Productivity has been supplanted by parasitism.
Japan's economy has stagnated for two decades despite the global economy experiencing one of its greatest economic booms ever. Japan continues to avoid fiscal or financial crisis, and perhaps it can do so for decades to come. But we should note that Japan has had the incredible, once-in-a-lifetime tailwind of a global boom for the past 23 years. That has enabled Japan, and all the other developed economies, the means to avoid facing their structural and demographic problems. If Japan's economy has stagnated during a global boom, what will it do during a global bust? Japan's stable stagnation will continue in a linear fashion--until it doesn't.
As we patiently await tonight's much-anticipated debate - and its zinger-ful diatribe of tax, spend, save, borrow, jobs, jobs, jobs word bingo - we thought this perfectly succinct clip dismissing the myth of how government stimulus leads to economic growth was particularly pertinent. Professor Antony Davies provides evidence, via empirical data from 1955, that there is no connection between federal spending and economic improvement - and as we have repeatedly noted - it merely adds to government debt. From the 'magic' of the Keynesian multiplier to the eyes-wide-shut view of spending creating jobs while ignoring the taxing-borrowing-printing nature of that spending. Government doesn't create jobs, it 'moves' jobs; as three years of stimulus spending has left us with ~8% unemployment and $4.6tn more debt.