Stress Test

Stress Test 2016: Fed Says All 33 Banks Can Surive 70 VIX Without Needing Outside Capital

While hardly coming as a surprise to anyone, moments ago the Fed announced that all 33 banks have enough capital to withstand a severe economic shock, though Morgan Stanley trailed the rest of Wall Street in a key measure of leverage, Bloomberg reports. The biggest bank cleared the most severe scenario handily, with the exception of Morgan Stanley whose projected 4.9% leverage ratio tied for last place alongside a Canadian bank’s U.S. unit, falling within a percentage point of the 4 percent minimum. As a result of today's "test result" many banks will likely win regulators' approval next week to boost dividends.

This Is What Yellen Told Congress When Asked If The Fed Is Boosting The Stock Market

ROYCE: So Madame Chair, is having a stable and rising stock market a third pillar or the Federal Reserve's monetary policy if I go back to what I originally heard Ben Bernanke articulate?
YELLEN: It is not a third pillar of monetary policy. We do not target the level of stock prices. That is not an appropriate thing for us to do.

The British Referendum And The Long Arm Of The Lawless

The true fear lies with those who stand to lose the most, in this case the countries who hold the Euro currency together with the thinnest of threads. As Britons head to the polling booths, they should hold their heads high, rightly insulted at the feigned notion that the UK cannot stand on its own. After all, much of the civilized world we take for granted today is rooted in the British rule of law.

UK Banks Told To Model Capital Controls, Bank Runs, 20% Devaluation

"With the encouragement of regulators, some lenders, including HSBC, have even run modelling for the imposition of capital controls, according to people briefed on the exercise. Banks said regulators had demanded a stress test that modelled for a 20 per cent fall in sterling."

Why Are So Many Bankers Committing Suicide?

"Yes he killed himself. But there’s a question: could it be suicide by extortion... There’s a couple suspicions I have..." - son of Deutsche Bank exec William Broeksmit

Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls As Gold Continues Surge After Entering Bull Market

There is an odd feeling of Deja QEu this morning, when with two hours to go until the February payrolls, global stocks are modestly higher, US equity futures are likewise slightly higher on the back of a weaker dollar (or perhaps stronger Euro following a Market News report according to which the ECB may disappoint, more on that shortly), but it is gold that is breaking out, and after entering a bull market yesterday when it rallied 20% from its December lows gold has continued to surge, rising as high as @1,274 in early trading a price last seen in January 2015.

Now It's China's Turn To Crash: Shanghai Plunges 6.4% Overnight

In recent weeks Chinese stocks remained relatively resilient, levitating quietly day after day. That all changed overnight when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 6.4% with the drop accelerating into the close. This was the biggest drop in over a month and was big enough to almost wipe out the entire 10% rebound from the January lows in one session.

Maybe Albert’s Crazy Forecast Is Not That Crazy After All

"Albert Edwards sees the possibility of a 75% decline from the peak if all his fears were to manifest themselves. Now many view this as an incredible and somewhat outlandish forecast, yet it is not that unreasonable in our view.... These types of declines would leave indices down rough 60-65% from peak, and would send leverage ratios skyrocketing."

Weekend Reading: The Awakening

"More monetary stimulus, wherever it is in the world, isn’t the answer for a global economy still trying to find a new growth path. Pay attention to bonds and ignore the sirens of the stock market."

Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario

"The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.... As a result of the severe decline in real activity and subdued inflation, short-term Treasury rates fall to negative ½ percent by mid-2016 and remain at that level through the end of the scenario."

"If You're Not Confused, You Don't Understand Things Very Well"

If you believe the global economy is doing great and stocks are cheap, stop reading now; this post is not for you. We promise to write one for you at some point when stocks are cheap and the global economy is breathing well on its own - we just don’t know when that will be. But if you believe that stocks are expensive - even after the recent sell-off - and that a global economic time bomb is ticking because of unprecedented intervention by governments and central banks, then keep reading.