SWIFT

Russia and China are discussing setting up a system of interbank transactions which will become an analogue to International banking transaction system SWIFT, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told PRIME on Wednesday after negotiations in Beijing. "Yes, we have discussed and we have approved this idea," he said.

If the market signs are blurry, your best option is to look at what the top investors are doing.

The comedic value of developments out of Ukraine, especially when it comes to "de-escalation", truly has no equal. Case in point, events from the past three hours, when we learned that there is a new Ukraine ceasefire, there is no Ukraine ceasefire, Putin is looking for a ceasefire but can't be part to a agreement as he is not "firing", NATO is pushing again, Ukraine demands special treatment, the Ukraine rebels were never even consulted on the latest ceasefure, and so on. End result: futures just hit new all time highs.

The 13 year anniversary of the 911 attacks in 2001 looms next week and given developments in recent days and weeks, one must be wary of new attacks in the UK , U.S. and other western nations. The UK has raised the country's terror threat level from substantial to severe, its second highest level. MI5 and MI6 said there was no information to suggest an attack was imminent.

Over the weekend, insolvent, debt-dependent Europe thought long and hard how to best punish Russia and moments ago reached yet another milestone in deep projective thought: as Reuters reports, Europeans could be barred from buying new Russian government bonds "under a package of extra sanctions over Moscow's military role in Ukraine that European Union ambassadors were to start discussing on Monday, three EU sources said." This will be in addition to the ban on the debt funding of most Russian corporations. So as Europe's 7-day ultimatum for the Kremlin to "de-escalate" counts down, Putin has a choice: continue operating under a budget surplus and ignore Europe's latest and most amusing hollow threat which is merely a projection of Europe's biggest fears, or spend himself into oblivion as Europe has done over the past decade and become a vassal state of the Frankfurt central bank.. Somehow we doubt Putin will lose too much sleep over this latest "escalation"...

Dispassionate look at the week ahead, without the hysterics of the sky is falling or the mother of all crises is around the corner.  

UK Prime Minister David Cameron came out swinging this morning; not only at ISIS but in calling for European leaders to block Russia from the SWIFT banking transaction system. European leaders have already (via unnamed sources) denied any actual new sanctions will take place (though they will be discussing them at the NATO Summit) but - as we have noted previously - this is yet another unintended consequence-driven nail in the coffin of USD hegemony...

• Obama Cools Talk of Strikes Against Islamic State in Iraq or Syria (WSJ)
• Separatists say will allow 'trapped' Ukrainian forces to withdraw (Reuters)
• Ukraine Fighting Surges as Russian-Backed Forces Gain (BBG)
• Missouri police sued for $40 million over actions in Ferguson protests (Reuters)
• BTFDividend stocks? Tesco Slumps as Retailer Slashes Dividend 75% on Forecast (BBG)
• In town halls, U.S. lawmakers hear voter anger over illegal migrants (Reuters)
• Obamacare’s Latest Threat Nears Turning Point in Court (BBG)
• Untangling the Mess of Austrian Bank Hypo (WSJ)
• The billion-dollar fall of the house of Espirito Santo (Reuters)
• Manhattan Condo Resale Prices Reach Record High (BBG)
• California Drought Squeezes Wells: State Considers Regulating Groundwater Use for First Time (WSJ)

With all of England on edge because the ISIS executioner of James Foley, known as "Jihadi John" sported a British accent, and who may or may not have been identified as Abdel-Majed Bary, although UK government sources have not yet officially revealed his identity, one person has decided it is time to not waste yet another crisis. The person: London mayor Boris Johnson who as the Guardian reports, has called for the presumption of innocence to be reversed in cases where Britons travel to Iraq or Syria and said he wants the jihadist who beheaded an American journalist to be killed in a bomb attack. If Johnson's proposal for a "swift and minor" law change passes, any Brit traveling to Iraq or Syria will automatically be branded a terrorist and suffer the appropriate consequences.

The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath unleashed an instantaneous reaction to today's FOMC minutes and the message is clear - markets are much less uncertain than the Fed about the timing (sooner rather than later) of the first rate-hike. The minutes of the meeting, Hilsy notes, provide fresh evidence of an intensifying debate inside the central bank about when to respond to a surprisingly swift descent in the unemployment rate and rising consumer prices. The minutes appeared to reflect a slightly more aggressive stance than Ms. Yellen's testimony.

• Ferguson at Turning Point After Night of Relative Calm (BBG)
• Gaza war rages on, Hamas says Israel tried to kill its military chief (Reuters)
• Surge in Putin Patriotism Masks Pain of Sanctions (BBG)
• Bank of England splits over rate hike for first time in 3 years (Reuters)
• Putin Meeting Leaves Kiev With Tough Choices (WSJ)
• European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine (BBG)
• "Isolation"  Mongolia Seeks Economic Lifeline With Pivot to China, Russia (BBG)
• Uber Picks David Plouffe to Wage Regulatory Fight (NYT)
• China Levies Record Antitrust Fine on Japanese Firms (BBG)

The only word to describe today's just concluded, and final for the week, auction of 30 Year paper can only be described with one word: blistering. First, the pricing yield itself, coming at 3.224% a whopping 2.5 bps through the When Issued, was the lowest since May 2013, just before the first Taper tantrum which sent yield surging only to regain all Ultra losses in the next year.

• As we predicted yesterday, the "big" Gaza ceasefire lasted all of a few hours (Reuters)
• To Lift Sales, G.M. Turns to Discounts (NYT)
• Espirito Santo Family’s Swift Fall From Grace Jolts Portugal (BBG)
• Argentine Debt Feud Finds Much Fault, Few Fixes (WSJ)
• Fiat Says Ciao to Italy as Merger With Chrysler Ends Era (BBG)
• Euro zone factory growth eases in July as inflation fades away (Reuters)
• CIA concedes it spied on U.S. Senate investigators, apologizes (Reuters)
• Ukraine Reports Losses After Pro-Russian Ambush Near Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash Area (WSJ)
• U.S. says India refusal on WTO deal a wrong signal (Reuters)
• Why Putin Has 2006 Flash Before His Eyes After Sanctions (BBG)

• Moscow fights back after sanctions; battle rages near Ukraine crash site (Reuters)
• On Hold: Merkel Gives Putin a Blunt Message (WSJ)
• Argentina’s Default Clock Runs Out as Debt Talks Collapse (BBG)
• Argentina braces for market reaction to second default in 12 years (Reuters)
• Banco Espirito Santo Plunges After Posting 3.6 Billion-Euro Loss (BBG)
• Adidas Plunges After Cutting Forecast on Russia, Golf (BBG)
• GOP Says Lerner Emails Show Bias Against Conservatives (WSJ)
• Londoners Cashing in Flee to Suburbs as Home Rally Wanes (BBG)
• BNP Paribas Reports Record $5.79 Billion Quarterly Loss (WSJ)
• Swiss Banks Send U.S. Client Data Before Cascade of Settlements (BBG)
• Putin Sows Doubt Among Stock Bears Burned by 29% Rebound (BBG)

Aggressive buying of gold and particularly silver by Russia will likely lead to defaults on the COMEX gold and silver futures exchanges and potentially an international monetary crisis. As sanctions, economic war and currency wars intensify we expect Russian and Russian ally buying of gold and selling of dollars to intensify ...