SWIFT

Success Is A Source Of Destabilization

We tend to assume our system for understanding the cause of failure must be sound, because we've experienced Roaring Success for so long. Rip-Roaring Success can destabilize in a number of ways.

So What Now?

The Global Dow followed the old Wall Street adage about bull markets taking the escalator and bear markets, the elevator. In fact, it may have simply jumped down the elevator shaft as, in a span of just 10 days, the index found itself already down at that lower support level. So what now? The risk has been wrung out and back up the escalator we go? Well, not necessarily.

A Glimpse Of Things To Come: Bankrupt Shale Producers "Can't Give Their Assets Away"

The end of America’s oil “miracle” is coming and there’s nothing Wall Street can do to stop it. At this point in the game, no one is going to finance the oil patch's cash flow deficits and the fundamentals in the oil market are laughably bad. As Bloomberg reports, Wall Street is about to have a serious bout of “indigestion” because recent auctions suggest that “some bankrupt oil and gas drillers can’t give their assets away.”

"What To Own In An Equity Death Spiral"

As BofA admits, "this sell-off differs from a typical growth scare in that parts of the recession playbook are failing miserably." So until we have clarity on whether or not this is a garden variety correction or a true bear market, here is BofA's advice on what to own in an "equity death spiral"

"Panic Is Building" BofA Admits; Asks "How Bad Could This Get?"

"Panic is building, most likely setting the stage for a rally, but the missing ingredient here is growth. With analysts cutting estimates at an accelerating rate, increasing China risks and no apparent floor for oil prices, we remain cautious on our near term outlook for stocks."

Pretend To The Bitter End

There’s really one supreme element of this story that you must keep in view at all times: a society (i.e. an economy + a polity = a political economy) based on debt that will never be paid back is certain to crack up. Its institutions will stop functioning. Its business activities will seize up. Its leaders will be demoralized. Its denizens will act up and act out. Its wealth will evaporate. Given where we are in human history - the moment of techno-industrial over-reach - this crackup will not be easy to recover from. Things have gone too far in too many ways. The coming crackup will re-set the terms of civilized life to levels largely pre-techno-industrial. How far backward remains to be seen.