We believe that the “Save Our Swiss Gold” campaign has the potential to be a game changer in the gold market - both in terms of the ramifications for the current global monetary system and in terms of higher gold prices.
There has been a lack of coverage of this important story and there is therefore a lack of awareness about the possible implications for the gold market. Thus, in the weeks prior to the referendum on November 30th, we are going to analyse the referendum, the important context to the referendum and the ramifications of a yes or a no vote.
While some are focused on the demise of the dollar, the fact is that it has been appreciating and this is causing some confusion. See if this helps clarify what is happening.
The may be secret agreements and a grand conspiracy to manipulate the capital markets and commodities, but they are still largely understandable through rational analysis. Not being privy to such secret deals, here is one man's view of the near-term technical outlook for the foreign exchange market, bond, commodities and stocks.
While the 0.001% of the world dine together and plan their next moves, here are the main events in the week ahead.
Yes the US does not practice laissez faire capitalism. It never did. It manipulates sets intersest rates. The fx market is still understandable and the dollar is moving higher.
Given the scale of indebtedness in the UK and still very high current account deficit, the pound remains vulnerable to a currency crisis. George Soros and others may still be sizing up another opportunity to break the Bank of England. Another run on the pound has been postponed ... for now ...
Is the US dollar really strong now? We explain why your measuring stick can massively distort your perception away from the reality of facts and truth.
Forget the Siren calls of the impending end of days and the imminent collapse of civilization. Here is a non-polemical non-bombastic overview of three key events in the week ahead: FOMC meeting, TLTRO launch in Europe and the Scottish referendum.
Simple review of technical condition of the capital markets. Light on polemical zeal, and heavy on technical analysis.
We have recently noted the increasing pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) over its peg to the EUR in the midst of a capital flood from Europe. The slow bleed strengthening of CHF against EUR had many concerned the SNB would be forced (by exogenous factors) to adjust the peg. But, this morning, it appears they tried to draw a red line... CHF has plunged after SNB's Mosler said negative interest rates remain an option should its minimum exchange rate (peg) come under threat. So, first NIRP in Europe, then in Japan (as per our overnight discussion), and now the Swiss warning NIRP is coming there next...
The euro has fallen an unprecedented eight weeks in a row. The dollar set new five year highs against the yen before the weekend. Here is an overview of the near-term technical outlook.
The chance of EURCHF breaking the peg at 1.2000 have increased from 10% to 25-30% based on European Central Bank monetary policy, geopolitical risk and a lack of policy choices for the Swiss National Bank. This means that being long EURCHF no longer is a safe bet and although the 70% chance of the floor being both defended and protected is still high, the tail-risk involved is becoming too concerning.
Overview of the technical outlook for the major currencies, bonds, Treasuries, stocks, CRB and oil.
Overview of the technical conditions of the major markets.
Overview of the price action in various currencies, S&P 500, Treasuries and the CRB Index