Initial conditions matter when contemplating impact of Greek referendum
We warned previously that when (not if) the market crashes next, The Fed is going to need a scapegoat (other than British traders living at home with their parents) and judging by The Fed's Lael Brainard's comments today, high-frequency-traders (HFT) are in the crosshairs. Crucially, Brainard warns that HFT "may amplify market shocks," and The Fed is "studying possible changes in liquidity resilience."
At the open, Europe looked in the abyss, and with no help coming from China, it did not like what it saw: And then the answer came from the Swiss National Bank, which stepped in to prevent the collapse just as Europe was opening. Because seemingly out of nowhere, a tremendous bid came in to life the EURCHF, buying Euros (against the CHF and the USD) and selling Europe's last left safety currency. We now know that it was the SNB, the same central bank which is the proud owner of well over $1 billion in Apple stock.
What to expect next week.
One hoary old myth claims the interest rate you see isn't real. You see, it’s only nominal. To calculate the real rate, you're supposed to adjust the nominal rate by inflation.
A Greek exit from the euro would change everything. The greatest change being simply doubt and fear regarding the outlook for other vulnerable EU nations, EU banks and the EU banking and financial system. We discuss short and long term considerations, best and case outcomes, and wealth preservation strategies.
Trying to make sense of the global capital markets.
Neither control for its own sake, nor bail-ins, are the primary drivers of going cashless. It's something more serious than power or loot.
After the carnage of the 2008 crash, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker proposed a rule that would prevent banks from making short-term proprietary trades with financial instruments. In other words, no gambling allowed. This rule would become known as The Volcker Rule, and it went into partial effect on April 1, 2014. Full compliance is required by July 21, 2015. Of course, the bank lobbyists were hard at work, and numerous exceptions and loopholes were created.
No follow through dollar buying against euro, yen and sterling after data showing US economyis recovering from weak Q1. What is happening? What is the outlook?
W're told that the Federal Reserve protects us from economic waves, indeed from the business cycle itself. The basic idea is that the Fed has both the power and the knowledge to somehow deliver an economic miracle.
Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position is truly enormous. It was recently estimated to be around $54 trillion. Germany's GDP, the 4th largest in the world, was a mere $3.64 trillion in 2015. Were Deutsche Bank caught off-side in its derivatives positions there is not a government or institution on earth that could bail it out and it could lead to contagion in the German financial system and indeed in the global financial system.
Why has the dollar jumped in recent weeks? Global conspriacy and lies? Are thousands of investors and participants being deluded?
Grit your teeth if you have to. Cry if you want to. US labor market is improving and the dollar is strengthening.
- Europe shares set for worst week of 2015 (Reuters)
- Jobs Report Not Likely to Trigger June Rate Hike (Hilsenrath)
- U.S. jobs market seen firming despite lackluster growth (Reuters)
- Gross Says Bond Rout Scary as Hell Even Without Bear Market (BBG)
- Apple Is the New Pimco, and Tim Cook Is the New King of Bonds (BBG), which ZH said in 2013
- In 'year of Apple Pay', many top retailers remain skeptical (Reuters)
- OPEC Nations Signal Few Prospects for Oil-Production Change (BBG)
- China regulator says amending rules on margin trading, short selling (Reuters)