Swiss National Bank

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 7





  • German Court Upholds Bailouts (WSJ)
  • Obama Said to Seek $300 Billion Jobs Package (Bloomberg)
  • Euro Woes Stir Currency Fears (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath: Bernanke Takes On a Balancing Act (Hilsenrath)
  • ‘Helicopter Ben’ risks destroying credit creation (Bill Gross)
  • China Likely to Ease Money Policy, Journal Says (Bloomberg)
  • Krugman explains why the  price of gold going down is due to deflation, and why it going up is due to... deflation (NYT)
  • Bernanke: US Banks' Exposure to Europe Is 'Manageable' (CNBC)
  • Greece Pledges to Accelerate Austerity (Bloomberg)
 


Tyler Durden's picture

Thank You Swiss National Bank For $2000+ Gold





Confirming that this is a market for idiots, by idiots, was the 4 am response in the price of gold, which following the SNB's Swiss Franc peg announcement did not surge, as it should have considering that the SNB just singularly changed the role of the CHF from a "flight to safety" to a carry currency, making gold the only island of stability in a world of fiat insanity, but instead plunged by over $50. Subsequent attempts to regain the $1900+ level were met with constant program selling for no other reason, than just because someone 'else' was selling. Of course, the logic is completely and totally the opposite. But don't take our word for it: here is Reuters: "Switzerland's decision to peg the erstwhile safe-haven franc to the euro may finally give gold bugs the chance to see prices hit the once-unimaginable $2,000 an ounce mark, as the metal holds on track for its strongest annual rally in three decades. By buying euros in unlimited amounts to weaken the franc, the SNB is in effect putting more of its own currency into circulation, which threatens to trigger inflation. It has also impacted the Swiss currency's status as a haven in its own right. While gold prices initially dipped as the move sparked a rush to liquidity in the form of other currencies such as the dollar, the SNB move is likely to lend firm support to gold in the medium term, analysts said." Precisely. And it is not only Reuters: Bank of America's MacNeill Curry said that Gold will probably rise to $2,050 this year. The rationale - identical to the above: SNB decision to peg franc to euro should also support gold. "They have taken out one of the big safe-haven assets, which is the Swissie." As for the amount of time the idiots will need to realize that QE3 coupled with the SNB action means that gold is now valued somewhere well over $2000: at least a few days...Which everyone who looks for even the smallest golden pullback will be happy to take advantage of.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: "With Immediate Effect"





Holy Red Screen, Batman! If you haven’t seen the news, the Swiss National Bank has just announced that it is putting a ceiling on the franc’s appreciation against the euro… effectively abandoning its economic sovereignty and putting its future in the hands of woefully corrupt and incompetent bureaucrats. On the news, the franc fell off a cliff, dropping almost 10% INSTANTLY. Gold priced in Swiss francs jumped from 1497 to 1620 per troy ounce, all in about 45 seconds. Precious metals are now all alone as the only forms of sound money that are truly safe havens.  Since then gold has soared roughly 20%, and as of this morning, the SNB has imposed capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency. This is just the beginning. The Swiss government has basically told the world that they will print as much money as it takes, and buy up as much crap sovereign debt as they can, to competitively devalue the currency. This essentially puts Switzerland in the same sinking boat as Italy, Greece, and Portugal… with one key difference: Switzerland has 0% interest rates. In other words, you can now borrow in francs at 0% and buy government-backed euro garbage yielding 5%, 10%, 30%…. with absolutely no downside currency risk.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Swiss Franc Collapses 7% - Swiss National Bank to Fix CHF to EUR and Debase Currency





Currency markets have seen massive volatility this morning after the Swiss National Bank decision to fix the Swiss franc to the euro. Just prior to the announcement, spot gold for immediate delivery had risen to a new record nominal high of $1,921.15/oz in early morning trading in Europe. Then just before 0900 hours GMT came the news that the Swiss National Bank has decided to fix the country's exchange rate at 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. The SNB indicated it would buy an unlimited amount of euros regardless of the risk to maintain that value. In a matter of minutes, gold fell 3% from the high of $1,921.15 to an inter day low of $1,862.72. It then recovered as quickly and surged back to over $1,912/oz. Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,891.00, EUR 1,330.75, GBP 1,172.86 per ounce. Gold fixed lower in all currencies (USD 1,896.50, EUR 1,341.13, GBP 1,174.67 per ounce). The SNB announced the currency fix because of what it called "the current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc." It said it will "no longer tolerate" an exchange rate below the minimum rate of 1.20 francs, which it said is still high.

 


madhedgefundtrader's picture

Those Damn Europeans!





I am tearing up my Eurail Pass, returning my espresso machine to Costco, and sending my gelato maker to the recycling center. Next year’s summer vacation is going to be at Coney Island, not the Italian Rivera. Those damn Europeans are spoiling everything!

The US stock markets made a determined effort to put in a bottom last week, with the S&P 500 rallying 106 points off the bottom with blinding speed. But the Europeans had other ideas.

 


madhedgefundtrader's picture

Time to Go Short the Matterhorn





I love Swiss chocolate, but it’s not that good. The Swiss franc has been driven up to absurd levels by a safe haven bid. This is the next “short gold” trade. It is far easier to weaken a currency than to strengthen them

 


Tyler Durden's picture

The European Dollar Funding Crunch Is Back: Fed Does Another $500 Million In USD Swaps This Time With The ECB





And now for some disturbing news out of the ECB, just in time for tomorrow's sub-1% GDP announcement and Jackson Hole disappointment. Unlike last week, when the Fed conducted a $200 million FX swap with the Swiss National Bank, this week the bank in dire needs of dollar funding is the ECB itself... and for two and a half times than last week. Furthermore, unlike last week, when we knew in advance that at least one European bank was experiencing a dollar liquidity event, this time the update from the ECB indicated no USD-based liquidity constraints: the $500 million in 7 day USD punitive loans quietly expired and everyone once again assumed that Eurozone liquidity is back to normal. It isn't. The question once again now becomes, who finds themselves in a dollar funding crunch?

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's Jim O'Neill: "2008 All Over Again?"





Remember when Jim O'Neill was openly taunting the "bears"? Yeah, those days are long gone. In his latest weekend letter the BRICster proceeds to do what so many have already been doing for weeks and months, namely compare the current precarious global economic situation to 2008: "Another ugly week passes, and it is still only August 20th. What a particularly brutal August this is turning out to be so far, even when compared to many challenging ones in recent and distant years. Although there are many substantive reasons why things are very different, many cannot resist the temptation to make comparisons with 2008. So, I thought I would discuss the comparison this weekend." And like a true Keynesian, O'Neill proceeds to do not just that but to provide his solution to all the world's problems: more G7 intervention. Because they keep getting it so right time after time after time...

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Macro Commentary: Is Germany Playing Chicken With Ben Bernanke?





Note to the future participants of Bretton Woods III – fiat currencies can only be floated with extremely tight and transparent banking laws, nothing like what we have today and this includes central banks. And if you decide to go down the gold standard path, same thing applies, transparency and low leverage are keys to long-term stability. Banks should operate like utilities with tremendous amounts of transparency, low levels of leverage and huge limitations on market size; read: granularity. How we are stumbling around today with the same banks that almost crashed in 2008 with even greater market shares and low-visibility accounting is beyond my understanding. Read the quote above to understand why the status quo is so eager to defeat anything that would reign in these black holes. It was as true then as it is today.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Perfect Storm Sees Gold & Silver Surge – Chavez Gold Action Leads To Backwardation, Short Squeeze And ‘Havoc’ Concerns





There is a small degree of backwardation developing in the gold market with certain near term futures contracts now trading at higher prices than longer term contracts. The near term August ’11 contract was trading at $1871.40/oz while June ’12 contract is trading at $1,870/oz (1216 GMT). The spread between spot and longer term contracts has fallen suggesting that gold may soon join silver in backwardation. The possibility of backwardation in gold suggests that major investors are concerned about the supply of physical gold. Buyers are concerned about securing supply in the future and are willing to pay a premium for spot or immediate delivery. It could indicate that the short squeeze anticipated by many is taking place and we could see a sharp upward move in gold prices. This would not be surprising considering the very small size of the physical bullion markets versus the size of the overall financial and currency markets and considering the high demand coming from investors and central banks globally. It is worth remembering what happened when silver went into backwardation some months ago. It led to a price surge from $30/oz to over $50/oz in 10 weeks. Backwardation rarely happens in the gold and silver bullion markets. Since gold futures first started to be traded in 1972 (on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange), there have only been momentary backwardations of a few hours. It suggests that larger gold bars are difficult to acquire in volume and that the physical market is becoming stressed and less liquid.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Official Swiss Bank Denials Of SNB/Fed Dollar Swap Line Usage Sends Gold To New Record Just $120 Away From $2000





When we first presented yesterday that the SNB had used $200 million in FX swaps with the New York Fed, we speculated that this "means that it is not some usual PIIGS suspect, but one of the two "big ones." Obviously by this we meant Credit Suisse or UBS. It took the banks about 12 hours to come out and deny officially that it had been either of them. Well, it simply it is someone else, and hence someone with far less in deposit-based capital buffers. And then, of course, you know what they say about official denials... Anyway, whoever it was, Europe is not waiting to find out: this morning most European bourses are down between 2 and 4%, Dax down 3.7%, CAC down 2.8% and the FTSE down 2.8% at last check, as the specter of a pan-European bank run is back. The net result: spam continues to be a drag in the gold-canned food pair trade, hitting a new old time high of $1878 in the spot market minutes ago, and just $122 away from $2000. Should the market rout persist, we may well see $2000 in the next 48 market hours.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Cue Panic As Fed Resumes Liquidity Swap Lines, Lends $200 Million To Swiss National Bank, Most Since October 2010





If yesterday's news broken by ZH that one bank was in dire need of US dollars and ended up borrowing $500 million from the ECB was enough to send the market down almost 5% today, then the follow up news that the FRBNY just reactivated FX swap lines with Europe will likely send ES limit down at tomorrow's open. The FRBNY has just announced that in the week ended August 17, it lent out $200 million to not the ECB, not the BOE, but the "most stable" of all banks: the SNB. This is the first use of the Fed's Swap Lines since March, and the most transacted under this "last ditch global bailout swap line" (see more on how the Fed bailed out the world using swap lines here) since October 2010. This event also gives us a hint that the European bank in question in dire need of cash is Swiss, which in turn means that it is not some usual PIIGS suspect, but one of the two "big ones." If true, this means that the European insolvency, liquidity and what have you crisis is about to take an exponential step function higher.

 


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