Swiss National Bank

Now that Mario Draghi has telegraphed more easing from the ECB come December, the question is what exactly the bank will announce. Will Draghi cut the depo rate further into negative territory? How long into 2017 will PSPP be extended? Given the scarcity of purchasable paper, will the ECB expand the universe of eligible assets and if so, will Draghi go full-Kuroda knowing full well that you never, ever go full-Kuroda?

Whereas some central banks have become more forthcoming on where they claim their official gold reserves are stored, many of the world’s central banks remain secretive in this regard, with some central bank staff saying that they are not allowed to provide this information, and some central banks just ignoring the question when asked.

If you borrow cash then it’s not income. No one in his right mind borrows to buy consumer goods... But what if someone else borrows, is that your income?

Earlier today yet another "very serious policy maker" confirmed that cash as we know it, may be on the endangered species list - again, a necessary precondition to make global NIRP effective - when overnight former Bank of England central banker, Charles Goodhart, told a London audience that bills such as the Swiss National Bank’s 1,000-franc note and the European Central Bank’s 500-euro note should be abolished, adding this "move that might also prove beneficial by trimming interest rates."

In short, the next round of the great crisis is beginning.  It will take time to unfold, but we have reached Peak Central Bank Intervention. When Central Banks loosen policy and the markets fail to respond, you're in the End Game.

Q: What is your own view of the appropriate liftoff date?

A: Our own answer to that question has long been 2016. In fact, our own view is similar to that of Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who recently shifted his call from early 2016 to mid-2016.... At this point, our “GSFCI Taylor rule” suggests that the FOMC should be trying to ease rather than tighten financial conditions. Our own view in terms of optimal policy is quite strongly in favor of waiting well into 2016.

In today's centrally planned world, the proliferation of NIRP means that nothing is sacred - not even a Swiss bank account...

The long awaited day is finally here by which we, of course, mean the day when nobody has any idea what the Fed will do, the Fed included. Putting today in perspective, there have been just about 700 rate cuts globally in the 3,367 days since the last Fed rate hike on June 29, 2006, while central banks have bought $15 trillion in assets, and vast portions of the world are now in negative interest rate territory.

A week ago, we noted Goldman Sachs' 'strawman' that Janet should "think about easing," despite the world's misplaced confidence that rates will rise "inevitably" since the US economy is doing so well. Today, we get to hear what 'god' thinks as the only thing that matters for The Fed's decision is - keep Lloyd happy  - and Goldman CEO Blankfein just said "U.S. economic data doesn’t support the case for higher interest rates."

Everything is so wonderful that a rate hike would equate to saying the Fed has won. Seven years of ZIRP and a few selling periods when the Fed stopped POMO’s and QE injections, we can easily say with extreme confidence that the Fed won. And by won we mean didn’t ruin the system entirely. Except they did.

"Our FCI Rule Suggests The Fed Should Think about Easing"...

A review of the technical condition of the dollar in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting announcement.

The growing roar of 'the establishment' crying for help from The Fed should make investors nervous. While your friendly local asset-getherer and TV-talking-head will proclaim how a rate-hike is so positive for the economy and stocks, we wonder why it is that The IMF, The World Bank, Larry Summers (twice), Goldman Sachs, China (twice), and now no lessor nobel-winner than Paul Krugman has demanded that The Fed not hike rates for fear of  - generally speaking - "panic and turmoil," however, as Krugman notes, “I think it would be a terrible mistake to move. But I’m not confident that they won’t make a mistake."

Central bank apologists assert that ZIRP helps the economy. It hasn’t and it won't. However, the main concern by both Fed defenders and foes alike is consumer prices. Both miss the real harm of zero interest.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.  They haven’t.