Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The End Game Has Begun

In short, the next round of the great crisis is beginning.  It will take time to unfold, but we have reached Peak Central Bank Intervention. When Central Banks loosen policy and the markets fail to respond, you're in the End Game.

Tyler Durden's picture

PIMCO's Balls On The Fed: There Will Be No Escape From ZIRP

"There is a chance that the Fed, like a number of central banks in recent years, may find it impossible to escape the effective lower bound to which policy rates were cut during the dark days of the crisis some seven years ago."

Tyler Durden's picture

Fed Opens Negative Interest Rate Pandora's Box: What Happens Next

"As interest rates go more negative, market participants will have increasing incentives to make payments quickly and to receive payments in forms that can be collected slowly. This is exactly the opposite of what happened when short-term interest rates skyrocketed in the late 1970s: people then wanted to delay making payments as long as possible and to collect payments as quickly as possible.... if interest rates go negative, we may see an epochal outburst of socially unproductive—even if individually beneficial—financial innovation."

Tyler Durden's picture

New Data Reveals U.S. Far From Freest Country In The World

While the U.S. has never had a truly free economy, the new study makes it evident that Americans have far less economic freedom and opportunity than they did in the year 2000. Now that economic conditions are even worse in the U.S. than they were before, a culture of extreme economic control has taken over and exacerbated the growing recession - one that history may end up redesignating a depression.

Tyler Durden's picture

War Is The Health Of The State - Protecting Yourself From "Financial Tyranny"

Our current monetary system is the root cause of many evils of today. Let’s take war, a topic we discussed in this article, as an example. Without a monetary system that creates currency out of thin air, most of the wars that we have had and still have would simply not be financeable. This system is controlled by a few, who change the rules to their own benefit. And as we have seen they use their privileges to finance wars and to bribe politicians. By holding your wealth in precious metals you are rejecting the current system and also protecting yourself from “financial tyranny”. This includes: capital controls, expropriation, bail-ins, bailouts, negative interest rates, market manipulation on a wide scale and massive paper currency fluctuations.

Tyler Durden's picture

How Mario Draghi Can Force The Swiss National Bank To Go "Nuclear" On Depositors

In today's centrally planned world, the proliferation of NIRP means that nothing is sacred - not even a Swiss bank account...

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 16

  • Contrarian CEOs tell the Fed: Go ahead, raise my rates (Reuters)
  • Goldman Warns Markets Unprepared for Fed as Treasuries Seesaw (BBG)
  • Investors Look Beyond Fed Meeting, See Low Rates (WSJ)
  • Volatility seen lingering no matter what the Fed does (Reuters)
  • What Rising Interest Rates Would Mean for You (BBG)
  • China Stocks Jump in Last Hour of Trading on State Support Signs (BBG)
  • No Escape for China Hedge Funds Overwhelmed by Stocks Crash (BBG)
  • Hedge Fund Bridgewater Defends Its ‘Risk-Parity’ Strategy (WSJ)
Tyler Durden's picture

Governments Give Migrants A Disastrous Mix Of Social Welfare & Bureaucracy

While influential voices like the Pope are correct that this is a travesty, the policies promoted by him and other government officials will only make this worse. Offering assistance to migrants by rescuing them when they become troubled or allowing migrants to remain without changing the underlying bureaucratic issue will only create greater incentives for more and more people to take the same dangerous routes. Risk compensation has to be considered — the greater the safety mechanisms in place, the more risky the behavior will become. Unfortunately, the current solutions presented by officials will likely result in boats even more overloaded with people and even greater numbers traversing dangerous jungle passes.

Tyler Durden's picture

Peter Hambro: "It's Virtually Impossible To Get Physical Gold In London"

"They [the Chinese] have been buying and the Indians have been buying in enormous quantities. It’s virtually impossible to get physical gold in London to ship to those countries. We get permanent requests from Russia, would we please sell our physical gold.... Because there is no physical, only endless promises. And I really worry..."

Tyler Durden's picture

MI6 "ISIS Rat Line" & The Threat To India

The prosecution of a Swedish national accused of terrorist activities in Syria has collapsed at the Old Bailey after it became clear Britain’s security and intelligence agencies would have been deeply embarrassed had a trial gone ahead, the Guardian reported.  "The prosecution abandoned the case, apparently to avoid embarrassing the intelligence services. The defence argued that going ahead with the trial would have been an “affront to justice” when there was plenty of evidence the British state was itself providing “extensive support” to the armed Syrian opposition. That didn’t only include the “non-lethal assistance” boasted of by the government (including body armour and military vehicles), but training, logistical support and the secret supply of “arms on a massive scale”."

Tyler Durden's picture

Did COMEX Counterparty Risk Just Reach A Record High?

The last few months have seen a steady drip-drip-drip increase in US, European, and Chinese bank credit risks, even as stock prices rose (aside from the latter). The turning point appears to have been the downturn in oil prices as traders began to hedge their counterparty risk in massive levered derivative positions tied to commodities. But it is not just banks... COMEX counterparty risk mut sbe on the rise, as Jesse's Cafe Americain notes, the 'claims per ounce of gold' deliverable at current prices has spiked higher once again, to a record 126:1.

Tyler Durden's picture

Exorbitant Privilege: "The Dollar Is Our Currency But Your Problem"

There is no better way to describe the international monetary system today than through the statement made in 1971 by U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Connally. He said to his counterparts during a Rome G-10 meeting in November 1971, shortly after the Nixon administration ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold and shifted the international monetary system into a global floating exchange rate regime that, "The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” This remains the U.S. policy towards the international community even today. On several occasions both the past and present chairpersons of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, have indicated it still is the U.S. policy as it concerns the dollar. Is China saying to the world, but more particularly to the U.S., “The yuan is our currency but your problem”?

Marc To Market's picture

Dollar Bulls Reassert Themselves, but...

Divegence driver of the dollar was never predicated on a particular time frame for the Fed's lift-off.  Others are easing.  Trajectory is the key.  Here is my sense of the near-term dollar outlook, wiht a look at some other asset markets as well.  

Tyler Durden's picture

Two-Thirds Of Global PMIs Deteriorate In August

First the good news: of the 28 global regions that have reported PMIs so far (the US Markit PMI is due later today), 18 posted a print of over 50, or indicating manufacturing expansion.
Now the bad news: more than two-thirds of PMIs in August deteriorated compared to July suggesting that while the global economy is not in a recession yet, absent some dramatic improvement, a global economic contraction is just around the corner.

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