Switzerland

Prior to yesterday, if you were trying to handicap how the unelected leaders of the Eurozone were going to react to a tough situation, you only had to refer to the quote "When it becomes serious, you have to lie" from Mr. Junker to understand their mindset. But so long as someone at the ECB was willing to flood the world with free EURs (with significant backup provided the US Federal Reserve) the market closed its eyes, held its breath and took the leap of faith that all was well. However, post the Cyprus decision, the curtain has been pulled back and wizard revealed with all his faults and warts. It would be hard to over-emphasize how significant the Cyprus situation is. The damage done here is not related to the size of the haircut - currently discussed between 3 and 13% - but rather that the legal language which each and every investor on the planet must rely on in order to maintain confidence in the system has been subordinated to the needs of the powerful elite.

Moments ago we got news that the same kind of "depositor repression" aka wealth tax just implemented in Cyprus over the weekend, may spread to other stability and deposit havens. Such as Switzerland. Just before 7 am Eastern, the SNB's Moder, who is an alternative board member, said on the wires that the SNB will not exclude negative interest rates, which followed earlier comments from the IMF that the SNB should have negative rates if there is a renewed surge in the Swissie, and a plunge in the EURCHF, as has happened as the Euro has tumbled. Sure enough, the EURCHF soared on news that even Europe's last remaining deposit bastion is about to be impaired, because all negative rates are is an ongoing deposit confiscation, instead of a one-time "levy" as per Cyprus.

The usually optimistic bunch of salubrious sell-side strategists are mixed in their perspective of the latest debacle to roll ashore from Europe. Most, if not quite all, expect short-term 'nervousness' and a few hardy Pollyannas remain though looking at the other end of the rainbow - once again because, drum roll please, "central banks will respond." Adding to our summary yesterday, Bloomberg adds another 13 sell-side opinions (and Moody's), it the diversity of response is perhaps best glimpsed with one who "does not expect savers to be fearful of a confiscation of their savings and spark a run on banks" for some whimsical reason and another states unequivocally, "No sensible foreign depositor would continue to keep money in a banking system that just took nearly 10% of his deposit without any notice."

It is difficult to describe the weekend bailout package to Cyprus in any other way. The confiscation of 6.75 percent of small depositors' money and 9.9 percent of big depositors' funds is without precedence that I can think of in a supposedly civilised and democratic society. But maybe the European Union (EU) is no longer a civilised democracy? This is a breach of fundamental property rights, dictated to a small country by foreign powers and it must make every bank depositor in Europe shiver. If you can do this once, you can do it again. Depositors in other prospective bailout countries must be running scared - is it safe to keep money in an Italian, Spanish or Greek bank any more? This is a major, MAJOR game changer and the fallout will be with us for a long time to come. Market reaction? it must be very good for gold - and for safe-haven countries like Switzerland and Singapore. This is full-blown socialism and I still cannot believe this really happened. Be careful out there...

French government study: cost would be over three times GDP. Financially, France would cease to exist as we know it

Think of a rhino that puts its head down, and just charges through the bushes. Everything gets trampled in the process.

A 'successful' Spanish auction and Draghi's reassuring anti-currency war chatter had little to no effect on Europe's equity markets but FX and bond markets moved quite significantly. A mix of small gains (CAC, DAX) and small losses (Italy, Switzerland) in stocks but Italian and Spanish bond spreads dropped 10-15bps further (down 30bps on the week) - back well below the pre-Italian election levels and Portugal goes from strength to strength on the small ratings upgrade last night (-50bps on the week). EURUSD was the story (and EURJPY) as a lack of concern over Euro potential strength by Draghi drove it to run stops above recent highs and end the day at 1.3100 (up around 130 pips on the day). EURJPY is now back to pre-Italian election levels.

• Must defend against Chinese colonial expansion and get the Nigerian oil: U. S. Boosts War Role in Africa (WSJ)
• BOJ nominee Kuroda sets out aggressive policy ideas (Reuters)
• China becomes world’s top oil importer (FT)
• Baby Cured of HIV for the First Time, Researchers Say (WSJ)
• Obama to nominate Walmart's Burwell as White House budget chief (Reuters)
• Wal-Mart Anxious to Combat Amazon’s Lead in Web Vendors (BBG)
• Nasdaq executing trades at a loss (FT)
• Spending cut debate casts pall over Obama's second-term agenda (Reuters)
• Russell Indexes to Reclassify Greece as Emerging Market (BBG)
• Bond Bears Collide With Swaps Showing Low Rates (BBG)
• Buffett Deputies Leaving Billionaire in the Dust Get More Funds (BBG)
• Brazil's leftist president fights to win back business (Reuters)
• U.S. Special Forces train Syrian Rebels in Jordan (Le Figaro)
• Carlos Slim Risks Losing World’s Richest Person Title as Troubles Mount (BBG)

A few days ago, to the surprise of many, the European Parliament voted through substantial curbs on banker pay, limiting bonuses to twice the annual salary (we have yet to see the list of pre-existing loopholes, which we are confident will be wide enough for Arnold's hummer to pass through). Today, in a less surprising, although perhaps more notable development, more than two-thirds of the Swiss people voted through a proposal to curb "fat cat-ism" in Switzerland, and impose strict controls on executive pay, including compensation vetos and payout bans. The development is notable, because unlike other insolvent nations, Switzerland is actually one of the most affluent sovereigns in the world, and class warfare is hardly as much an issue as it is in the US. The fact that Swiss society is as polarized as it was confirmed to be this morning, shows just how deep the rich vs, well, non-rich tensions truly lie, even in the most wealthy of societies. One can then imagine how close to snapping they are in other less well-off places, read most countries, in the world.

Recent news about Federal plans to "help" manage private retirement accounts renewed our interest in the topic of capital controls. One example of capital control is to limit the amount of money that can be transferred out of the country; another is limiting the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from accounts; a third is the government mandates private capital must be invested in government bonds. Though presented as "helping" households, the real purpose of the power grab would be to enable the Federal government to borrow the nation's retirement accounts at near-zero rates of return. As things fall apart, Central States pursue all sorts of politically expedient measures to protect the State's power and the wealth of the political and financial Elites. Precedent won't matter; survival of the State and its Elites will trump every other consideration.  All this raises an interesting question: what would America look like at $5000 an ounce gold?

While today's attention was focused on the austerity-crushing defeat of Monti in Italy and the pre-supposition that the ECB being able to use its OMT promise against an ill-disciplined nation fades; there is another super-cell of destruction wending its way towards Berlin (and Brussels). At the perfect time for such things, Reuters reports that the man at the center of Spanish PM Rajoy's political scandal, Luis Barcenas, has been banned from leaving Spain, had his passport revoked, and ordered to report to court twice a month. The millions of dollars in Swiss bank accounts that investigators found that he had deposited and the linkages to Spain's royalty in the so-called 'graft' case are not playing well with the population as unemployment surges above 26%. Judged as a serious flight risk, the high court judge ordered the steps after finding out he was skiing in Canada two weeks ago (where they suspect funds were also transferred). One protester complained, "They are lying to us, and worse than that, scorning us... Enough is enough, we need some accountability."

ViaMat, a Swiss logistics company that has been safeguarding precious metals since 1945, is literally the gold standard in secure storage. They have vaults from Switzerland to Hong Kong to Dubai, and they count among their clients some of the largest mining companies in the world. They know what they’re doing. And now they’re dumping US citizens.... due to US tax structure changes. If history is any guide, storing gold abroad is critical.

The Coming “Lira-Ization” of the euro. And gold?

Europe ends the week very mixed - as real macro data was dismal but sentiment and hope positive. Credit underperforming notably - especially financials - but equity indices varied from a 2% drop in Italy to a 1.8% gain for Switzerland (which seems like a squeeze given positioning). Italian bond spreads also suffered the most this week heading into the election - gaining 15bps. Portugal was the worst on the week with its spread to Bunds rising 18bps. The real news of the week is the EUR which extends its losses - down 1.5% on the week - to the biggest three-week drop in seven months. GBP weakened the most against the USD on the week - down 1.7% as currency wars progress. Europe's VIX closes at its highest of the year at 20.9% - up over 2 vols on the week.

The saga of the Heinz call option insider trade, first profiled here, and the Goldman trail, also first observed here ("Does GS stand for Goldman Sachs one wonders"), just got even more fun as revelations that it was none other than a client of Goldman's Private Wealth group out of Zurich that hit the buy key on those thousands in call options one day ahead of the announcement. From Reuters: "A Goldman Sachs private wealth client is the holder of the Swiss account at the center of an investigation into insider trading in H.J. Heinz Co options, regulators said in a court filing late Wednesday." Alas, and as before, the question of who leaked the inside information to this Goldman client still remains unanswered.