Switzerland

No need for much commentary here, suffice to say that those who thought Italy's massive drop in PMI from 47.9 to 43.9 in April was bad, apparently have not seen Hungary, Australia, Norway or Switzerland. The good news? Turkey is doing well to quite well... which likely explains why they are trying to confiscate the people's gold.

Hard landing, soft landing, civil unrest, dominant economic superpower – the forecasts flow freely regarding China. The fact that good data is hard to come by regarding China does not seem to inhibit many outside observers. In this piece I will look at China through the lens of economic structure, Chinese history and culture—concepts which a number of observers often overlook. My general conclusion is that Chinese GDP growth rates are about to undergo a gradual but nevertheless perceptible decline. But I now believe a hard landing crash is unlikely, assuming that Europe does not totally disintegrate and the US does not roll over into a full scale recession.

With a Labour Day market holiday across the continent, focus turns to the FTSE-100. The UK market is trading modestly higher with some strong earnings reports overnight lifting the index. Lloyds Group posted stronger than expected profits and reported confidence in the delivery of their financial guidance. The report has boosted Lloyds shares to become one of the top gainers of the day. Despite this, the financials sector is being held back from outperforming as Man Group fail to deliver on their sales figures, pushing their shares lower throughout the session.  The only notable data release of the European session was UK Manufacturing PMI, coming in below expectations with a reading of 50.5 as manufacturing output was dampened across April by Eurozone weakness and contracting new orders. Following the release, GBP weakness was observed, with GBP/USD touching upon session lows.  Pre-market, the RBA cut their cash target rate by 50BPS, a larger cut than expected. The board cited skittish market conditions and below trend output growth as the triggers for the rate cut. As such, AUD weakness is observed across the board and AUD/USD stops just short of breaking through 1.0300 to the downside.  Looking ahead in the session, participants look toward US ISM Manufacturing for March due at 1500BST/0900CDT as the next key data release.

• Only the cattle cars are missing: Greece opens detention camp for immigrants as election looms (Reuters)
• China really wants that Iran oil - China mulls guarantees for ships carrying Iran oil (Reuters)
• U.S. eyes testy China talks, Chen backer expects Chinese decision (Reuters, FT)
• Possible arsenic poisoning probed in death of coroner's official (LA Times)
• Europe’s Anti-Austerity Calls Mount as Elections Near (Bloomberg)
• Law firm Dewey dumps executive; talks with rival end (Reuters)
• Greek bank appeals for fresh equity (FT)
• Banks seek to put pressure on small rivals (FT)
• Obama falls short of meteoric expectations abroad (Reuters)

• Hollande Says Germany Can’t Make Europe’s Decisions Alone (BBG)
• Monti Hits at Eurozone Austerity Push (FT)
• Firm that made loans to Chesapeake CEO defends them (Reuters)
• Bo Xilai's Son Doesn't Drive a Ferrari. He drives a Porsche (WSJ)
• Geithner Urges China to Loosen Hold on Finance System (BBG)
• and yet... Son of Bo Xilai Says Father’s Ouster ‘Destroyed My Life’ (BBG)
• U.S. growth slows as inventory accumulation wanes (Reuters)
• S&P 500 Dividend Payers Climb to Highest in 12 Years (BBG)
• Lacker Sees Fed May Need to Raise Rates in Mid-2013 (BBG)
• Ireland Passes Latest Bailout Review (WSJ)

While gold demand from the western investors and store of wealth buyers has fallen in recent months, central bank demand continues to be very robust and this is providing strong support to gold above the $1,600/oz level. IMF data released overnight shows that Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March. Russia continued to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and increased its gold reserves by about 16.5 tons according to a statement by its central bank on April 20. Other creditor nations with large foreign exchange reserves and exposure to the dollar and the euro including Turkey and Kazakhstan also increased their holdings of gold according to the International Monetary Fund data.Mexico raised its reserves to 122.6 tons last month when gold averaged $1,676.67 an ounce.Turkey added 11.5 tons, Kazakhstan 4.3 tons, Ukraine 1.2 tons, Tajikistan 0.4 ton, and Belarus 0.1 tonnes, according to the IMF. Ukraine, Czech Republic and Belarus also had modest increases in their gold reserves. Central banks are expanding reserves due to concerns about the dollar, euro, sterling and all fiat currencies.

• China’s Biggest Banks Are Squeezed for Capital (NYT)
• Greeks detect hypocrisy as Dutch coalition stumbles (Reuters)
• Hollande Blames Europe’s Austerity Plan for Le Pen’s Rise (Bloomberg)
• In a Change, Mexico Reins In Its Oil Monopoly (NYT)
• China Tire Demand Slows as Economy Decelerates, Bridgestone Says (Bloomberg)
• Social Security’s financial forecast gets darker; Medicare’s outlook unchanged (WaPo)
• Fed’s 17 Rate Forecasts May Confuse More Than Clarify (Bloomberg)
• Senate to vote on array of Postal Service overhaul proposals (WaPo)
• Weidmann Says Bundesbank Is Preserving Euro Stability (Bloomberg)

• A Forecast of What the Fed Will Do: Stand Pat (Hilsenrath) - they finally realized that they have to leak the opposite...
• Draghi's ECB Rejects Geithner-IMF Push for More Crisis-Fighting (Bloomberg)
• Wal-Mart's Mexico probe could lead to departures at the top (Reuters)
• The Sadly Unpalatable Solution for the Eurozone (FT)
• US Regulators Look to Ease Swaps Rules (FT)
• Yuan, Interest Rate Reform to be Gradual: China Central Bank Chief (Reuters)
• Run, Don't Walk (Hussman)
• Hollande Steals Poll March on Sarkozy (FT)

What do you get for $50 billion? Happy Talk...

It appears that after months of abuse for their water-is-wet economic insights, the San Francisco Fed may have stumbled on to the cold harsh reality that this post-great-recession world finds itself in. The crux of the matter, that will come as no surprise to any of our readers, is credit and "its central role to understanding the business cycle". Oscar Jorda then concludes, in a refreshingly honest and shocking manner that "Any forecast that assumes the recovery from the Great Recession will resemble previous post-World War II recoveries runs the risk of overstating future economic growth, lending activity, interest rates, investment, and inflation." His analysis, which Minsky-ites (and Reinhart and Rogoff) will appreciate - and perhaps our neo-classical brethren will embrace - is that the Great Recession upended the paradigm that modern macro-economic models omitted banks and finance and this time it really is different in that the 'achilles heel' of economic modeling - credit - cannot be considered a secondary effect. His analysis points to considerably slower GDP growth and lower inflation expectations as he compares the current 'recovery' to post-WWII recoveries across 14 advanced economies - a sad picture is painted as he notes "Today employment is about 10% and investment 30% below where they were on average at similar points after other postwar recessions."

• First Japan now... Australia Ready to Help IMF (WSJ)
• "Not if, but when" for Spanish bailout, experts believe (Reuters)
• Spain’s Surging Bad Loans Cast New Doubts on Bank Cleanup (Bloomberg)
• Spain weighs financing options (FT)
• Spanish Banks Gorging on Sovereign Bonds Shifts Risk to Taxpayer (Bloomberg)
• Spain and Italy Bank on Banks (WSJ)
• Chesapeake CEO took out $1.1 billion in unreported loans (Reuters)
• China preparing to roll out OTC equity market – regulator (Reuters)
• Angry North Korea threatens retaliation, nuclear test expected (Reuters)
• North Korea Breaks Off Nuclear Accord as Food Aid Halted (Bloomberg)

When one thinks PIIGS, one usually imagines countries with collapsing economies, 50%+ youth unemployment, and current account deficits so large they are about to drag down the ECB, Bundesbank and Germany. And while that is absolutely correct for the most part, there is one product which the PIIGS, or in this case Italy, are all too happy to export in size. Gold, and not just to anywhere, but to that ultimate safe haven - Switzerland. From BBC: "Italian exports of gold ingots to Switzerland have soared in recent months, data has shown. Exports to Switzerland were 35.6% higher than in February 2011 "mainly because of sales of non-monetary raw gold", statistics agency Istat said. This followed a 34.6% year-on-year rise in exports to Switzerland in January." And the absolutely funniest attempt at spin ever:  "Experts say improvements in the trade deficit could be a sign that Prime Minister Mario Monti's economic reforms are starting to take effect." Uhm, when the country is exporting the only real asset it has for when it will need to backstop its own currency following the inevitable collapse of the EUR, this is not exactly a sign that the country's reforms are taking effect, but rather that everyone else in Europe is stockpiling the precious metal in advance of "some" event, which is coming.

"In the last three plus years, central banks have had little choice but to do the unsustainable in order to sustain the unsustainable until others do the sustainable to restore sustainability!" is how PIMCO's El-Erian introduces the game-theoretic catastrophe that is potentially occurring around us. In a lecture to the St.Louis Fed, the moustachioed maestro of monetary munificence states "let me say right here that the analysis will suggest that central banks can no longer – indeed, should no longer – carry the bulk of the policy burden" and "it is a recognition of the declining effectiveness of central banks’ tools in countering deleveraging forces amid impediments to growth that dominate the outlook. It is also about the growing risk of collateral damage and unintended circumstances." It appears that we have reached the legitimate point of – and the need for – much greater debate on whether the benefits of such unusual central bank activism sufficiently justify the costs and risks. This is not an issue of central banks’ desire to do good in a world facing an “unusually uncertain” outlook. Rather, it relates to questions about diminishing returns and the eroding potency of the current policy stances. The question is will investors remain "numb and sedated…. by the money sloshing around the system?" or will "the welfare of millions in the United States, if not billions of people around the world, will have suffered greatly if central banks end up in the unpleasant position of having to clean up after a parade of advanced nations that headed straight into a global recession and a disorderly debt deflation." Of course, it is a rhetorical question.

Last night it was uber-dove Janet Yellen, today it is uberer-dove, former Goldmanite (what is it about Goldman central bankers and easing: Dudley unleashing QE2 in 2010, Draghi unleashing QE LTRO in Europe?) Bill Dudley joining the fray and saying QE is pretty much on the table. Of course, the only one that matters is Benny, and he will complete the doves on parade tomorrow, when he shows that all the hawkish rhetoric recently has been for naught. Cutting straight to the chase from just released Dudley comments:"we cannot lose sight of the fact that the economy still faces significant headwinds and that there are some meaningful downside risks... To sum up, the incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be getting better established.  But, while these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery.  On the inflation front, the year-over-year rate of consumer price inflation has slowed in recent months, and despite the recent rise of gasoline prices, we expect inflation to moderate further in 2012." Translate: NEW QE is but a CTRL-P keystroke away now that all the inflation the Fed usually ignores continues to be ignored.

Not adding up.... but let's figure it out.