Switzerland

The "talkers" are talking. I'm listening and trying to guess what it means.

Yesterday we disclosed that the reason for numerous SNB interventions in the EURCHF was due to billions in deposits rushing out of Germany and seeking the relative stability of Swiss neutrality. A quick look at the trading pattern of the GBPCHF shows that it is now UK depositors who are panicking and shifting their money to unnamed (not so much anymore) Zurich bank vaults. The result: a 300 pip move in the GBPCHF as the SNB rushes to put out this particular capital flight fire. Too bad it only succeeded for about 12 hours. The run on the bank (to another bank) in Europe is now on.

Earlier today we disclosed what were not one but several massive central bank interventions in the Euro-Swiss Franc exchange rate. The intervention was large enough to push the rate up by 300 pips, a gargantuan amount in a world where applied leverage is often in the thousands. The amount of capital required to achieve this was likely unprecedented. Yet what bothered us was why would the SNB so glaringly intervene in the FX market not once but three or even more times. Thanks to the Telegraph we find out that the reason was a massive €9.5 billion capital flight from Germany into Swiss deposit accounts just this morning, according to BNP. Unfortunately for Germany this is only the beginning of capital reallocation from the country into neighboring Switzerland. And the technical bounce in the EUR today was in fact an even greater sign of weakness: in fact, as the IMF's Tim Kingdon pointed out, the money run in Club Med banks last week resulted in a massive €56 billion of interbank lending as the move from the periphery to the core accelerated. Now that the next stage of the run is from the core, Europe will very soon find itself with depleted depository capital very soon. Because if money is fleeing Germany, it is certain that France, Italy and the UK can not be far behind.

"World War II was fought over the control of people, whether they lived or died, their philosophical beliefs, and their land. In the end, the Swiss were willing to give up almost everything to not succumb to the National Socialists. Today, the Swiss are in a less stark, but surprisingly similar spot. They are surrounded by another all-encompassing concept: the euro. At first glance this might seem comical, but the German government stands ready to pay very large sums of money to any thief who can produce a list of German account holders at Swiss banks and the Italians are photographing the license plates of all cars crossing into Switzerland to check them against their tax records. Government agents and spies are involved as well. As far as we know there are no deaths in this war, but there are many financial losses, jail terms, and bankruptcies. In the past, the victims were wealthy men and corporations, and the battles had significant moral overtones, but the recent movement toward euro disintegration expands the battlefield, increases the risks astronomically, and will victimize all of western continental Europe, including Switzerland , from the lowliest clerk to the mightiest corporation." John Taylor, F/X Concepts

Swiss private bank Wegelin says goodbye and good riddance to America. An absolute must read.