A look at the psycholgoy of traders as reflected in the price action ahead the new week which promises to be eventful.
"We have a problem with this, and that is central bank hubris. They now think that they are omnipotent, because, essentially the government has said we are going to pass over all control of the economy to the central banks, they say to everybody else including financial market participants that “you don’t know, you don’t understand, we have our models and they are right”. And that kind of hubristic approach is when you sow the seeds of your own destruction."
"It's starting to get ugly..."
Moscow-based cybersecurity firm Kaspersky Lab has released a detailed report that outlines how spyware (which some suggest originated in Israel) was used to infiltrate the hotels that hosted the Iran nuclear negotiations. From the report: "Earlier this year, during a security sweep, Kaspersky Lab detected a cyber intrusion affecting several of its internal systems. Following this finding, we launched a large-scale investigation, which led to the discovery of a new malware platform. Notably, some of the new 2014-2015 infections are linked to the P5+1 events and venues related to the negotiations with Iran about a nuclear deal."
This breakdown marks the first day that Exxon Mobil has ever closed below this trendline. Now, assuming the stock’s behavior around the trendline is not completely random, and considering its capacity as the 2nd biggest stock in the equity market, the effect of this breakdown may be profound. Absent an immediate reversal back above the trendline, this loss of 28-year support would appear to open the door to more downside in the stock.
While it is likely oil prices could get a bit of a bump from a decline in the U.S. dollar, ultimately it will come down to the fundamentals longer term. It is quite clear that the speculative rise in oil prices due to the "fracking miracle" has come to its inglorious, but expected conclusion. What is interesting is that most have not figured out that the same thing will occur with the artificially driven surge in financial markets as well. It is quite apparent the some lessons are simply never learned.
A lot of people have got very excited as the price of WTI has bounced back from the lows reached a few months ago. If oil fails to break and hold above $62 this time around, however, their enthusiasm could well be misplaced, as the fundamental factors that caused the price decline in the first instance are still in place.
A look at the economic data and market psychology as a new week begins.
The signal hasn’t been unanimous in foretelling weak performance, but it has certainly been the norm over the past 65 years, and to a statistically significant degree. Thus, we would consider this another negative facing the stock market at the present time.
The final Q1 GDP revision was just released and we saw that GDP has again missed expectations by such a large margin that 2015 is another write off for a 3% growth year. Almost comically we heard the same excuses we got last year. “Weather was wintery and next year is going to be the turnaround year”. So in order to explain to these supposed economic and market ‘experts’ who seem wholly incapable of understanding economic and market forces with any sense of accuracy, let’s run through a few fundamentals.
"Whenever total federal tax receipts have exceeded 18% of GDP, the result has always been a recession for the U.S. economy."
Emergency legislation can be drawn up over-night. While Austria may be the first in enacting bail-in legislation there is no guarantee that savers, particularly in the peripheral nations, will receive any indication that their deposits may be at risk.
his commentary will undoubtedly antagonize the entire mainstream media, many/most traders in the rigged casinos we call markets, and even many members of the Alternative Media. As the saying goes; “the truth hurts.”
The purpose of this analysis is not to accumulate (more) enemies, however. Rather, there is simply no way to properly explain why all of this pseudo-analysis is fatally flawed without explicitly making clear one, central point: all price-analysis is meaningless. Since “price analysis” accounts for roughly 95% of all the drivel which the mainstream media calls “analysis”; this one point alone invalidates virtually all of the Corporate media’s trash.
Meet ForexChile, the largest purveyor of leveraged contracts for difference in Chile and the subject of a scathing Bloomberg report which outlines how unsuspecting retail investors end up 100X leveraged on derivatives they sometimes do not understand.