Technical Analysis

Doug Kass: Not Even The Algo Creators Know What Is Going On

"The machines have no fear of flash crashes or any other kind of crash. Such crashes might even serve their purpose of 'making a profit'... Be forewarned as last Friday's Nasdaq schmeissing may be a walk in the park compared to what may happen in the future...This is not my Grandma Koufax's stock market."

Investing Wisdoms... Spot What's Missing

"Experience is an expensive commodity to acquire, which is why it is always cheaper to learn from the mistakes of others... not one of the investing greats in history ever had "buy and hold" as a rule."

Monetary Metals's picture

There is a often-promoted plan to grow your wealth based on the claim the dollar will collapse:

Phase 1: You gotta buy gold.
Phase 2: Price goes up
Phase 3: Profit!

This is a bit reminiscent of the underpants business model on South Park. South Park of course showed phase 2 as “???” but the analogy holds.

The story switches midway from the-dollar-will-collapse to gold-will-go-up. In fact, these are the same thing. It is important to realize because a higher price of gold does not make you richer. Aside from being wrong as a matter of fact, it is an example of dollar thinking. It comes from the belief that gold is to be sold. That is not historically how people thought about it. Gold is money and those who have it should seek to earn a return on it, not sell it.

FT's John Dizard Warns Of "Catastrophic Decline In Asset Values"

"Short term asset price declines have been reversed by the wall of money coming out of active investment managers and into the accounts of low-cost index products. But this comes at the expense of making the eventual decline in a broad range of asset values not just painful, but catastrophic."

Erdogan Blocks Wikipedia, Bans TV Dating Shows, Purges Another 4,000 Public Officials

Two weeks after winning the Turkish constitutional referendum by a modest but decisive margin, president - or perhaps it is now despot - Erdogan decided to take his newly decreed powers for a spin and overnight in rapid succession surprised foreign observers when Turkey decreed that it would ban TV dating shows, fire an additional 4,000 public officials and also ban Wikipedia.

Investors' Leverage Hits An All-Time High

"...on a quarterly basis, the market is currently more overbought than at just about any other point in history... Combined with record levels of margin debt, the current conditions HAVE NEVER lasted indefinitely. "

Monetary Metals's picture

Every week we talk about the supply and demand fundamentals. We were surprised to see an article about us this week. The writer thought that our technical analysis cannot see what’s going on in the market. We don’t want to fight with people, we prefer to focus on ideas. So let’s compare and contrast ordinary technical analysis with what Monetary Metals does.

Technical analysis, in all of its forms, uses the past price movements to predict the future price movements. We are not here to argue for or against technical analysis. We simply want to say that it’s not what we are doing. Not at all.

Our analysis is based on different ideas. The key idea is that there is a connection between the spot and futures market. That connection is arbitrage.

Why Dollar Bulls "Despair" As March Hike Looks Baked In

Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks Friday all but confirmed what traders rushed to price in last week: a rate hike mid-month is close to a lock. And yet, the heightened confidence about March may actually spell trouble for dollar bulls in coming days. BBG's Vincent Cignarella explains why.

A Technical Preview Of The Week Ahead: What The Charts Say

For the technical analysis fans among our readers, we are delighted to present you with the following 9 minute summary, courtesy of our friends at RanSquawk, laying out some of the most notable charts and pattern formations among various assets classes, with an emphasis on breaking out equities, as well as rates, commodities, and of course FX.