Testimony

I normally write about gold and economics, but Edward Snowden has brought to the attention of America—and the whole world—a different issue.

A federal judge ruled Monday that the National Security Agency program which collects information on nearly all telephone calls made to, from or within the United States is likely to be unconstitutional. As Politico reports, Judge Richard Leon blasted, "I cannot imagine a more ‘indiscriminate’ and ‘arbitrary invasion’ than this systematic and high-tech collection and retention of personal data on virtually every single citizen for purposes of querying it and analyzing it without judicial approval." This is the first significant legal setback for the NSA’s surveillance program since Edward Snowden exposed it.

One would think that value investors from outside the industry would be all over this vacuum.

• EU Fines Financial Institutions Over Fixing Key Benchmarks (Reuters)
• Euro-Area Economic Growth Slows as Exports, Consumption Cool (BBG) - someone has a very loose definition of growth
• Ukraine Officials Scour Globe for Cash as Protests Build (BBG)
• Oops: Franklin Boosted Ukraine Bet to $6 Billion as Selloff Began (BBG)
• Japan Plans 18.6 Trillion Yen Economic Package to Support Growth (BBG) - or about 2 months of POMO
• How Peugeot and France ran out of gas (Reuters)
• Iran threatens to trigger oil price war (FT)
• Abe Vows to Pass Secrecy Law That Hurts Cabinet’s Popularity (BBG)
• Brazil economy turns in worst quarter for 5 years (FT)
• Australia’s Slowdown Suggests RBA May Need to Do More (BBG)
• Biden calls for trust with China amid airspace dispute (Reuters)

• With website improved, Obama to pitch health plan (Reuters)
• Joe Biden condemns China over air defence zone (FT)
• Tally of U.S. Banks Sinks to Record Low (WSJ)
• Black Friday Weekend Spending Drop Pressures U.S. Stores (BBG)
• Cyber Monday Sales Hit Record as Amazon to EBay Win Shoppers (BBG)
• Ukraine's Pivot to Moscow Leaves West Out in the Cold (WSJ)
• Investment banks set to cut pay again despite rise in profits (FT)
• Worst Raw-Material Slump Since ’08 Seen Deepening (BBG)
• Democrats Face Battles in South to Hold the Senate (WSJ)
• Hong Kong reports 1st case of H7N9 bird flu (AP)
• In Fracking, Sand Is the New Gold (WSJ)

There are a couple of disturbing points that came out of her take on bubbles and the rationale behind not tapering a mere 10 or 15 Billion dollars given the monthly commitment of 85 Billion in Fed Purchases every month.  

With the "inmates in charge of the asylum" during this holiday shortened trading week it seemed to be an apropriate opportunity to share a virtual cornucopia of topics to consider while enjoying the delicious delicacies, and subsequent tryptophan induced comas, of a traditional Thanksgiving.

• Winter storm lashes eastern U.S., threatens Thanksgiving travel (Reuters)
• Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown (BBG)
• Private equity keeps $789bn of powder dry (FT) - because they are "selling everything that is not nailed down"
• Merkel and SPD clinch coalition deal two months after vote (Reuters)
• Japan approves new state secrecy bill to combat leaks (BBC)
• CLOs are the new black: Volatile Loan Securities Are Luring Fund Managers Again (WSJ)
• Health website deadline nears (WSJ)
• Norway Debates $800 Billion Wealth Fund’s Investment Options (BBG)
• Set of global trade deals stalls (WSJ)
• Berlusconi To Learn Fate In Senate  (Sky)
• Silvio Berlusconi withdraws support from Italy’s government (FT)

While the abysmal rollout of Obamacare hardly needs any additional debacles, a recent hearing by technology experts in Congress added yet another, quite major, wrinkle to an already insurmountable problem: healthcare.gov is so fraught with security flaws, and so bloated with code, that it may easily expose the personal data of millions (we are being generous here) of users - it collects user names, birth dates, social security numbers, email addresses and much more - to even the least experienced of hackers. It gets worse: when asked "Do any of you think today that the site is secure?" the answer from the experts, which included two academics and two private sector technical researchers, was a unanimous "no."  And worse when the experts were asked "would you recommend today that this site be shut down until it is?" three of the experts said "yes," while a fourth said he did not have enough information to make the call. But the worst news of the day the experts said the site needed to be completely rebuilt to run more efficiently, making it easier to protect. Finally, should Obama finally do the right thing and scrap the three year project and start from scratch, "in written testimony, Kennedy said it would take a minimum of seven to 12 months to fix the problems with the site shut down, given the site's complexity and size."

After the DJIA and S&P briefly crossed the key resistance levels of 16000 and 1800, the upper bound on the markets has been looking increasingly more distant and this morning's lack of an overnight ramp only makes it more so. Perhaps the biggest concern, however, is that with both Yellen and Bernanke on the tape yesterday, the S&P still was unable to close green. This follows on Monday's double POMO day when the S&P once again closed... red. Not helping things was the overnight announcement by the Japanese government pension fund, the GPIF, in which the fund announced it would lower its bond allocation further however the new law to reform the GPIF could be written by spring 2015. This was hardly as exciting as the market had expected, and as a result both the USDJPY and the ES-moving EURJPY find themselves at overnight lows. Will the EURJPY engage in its usual post 8 am ramp - keep a close eye, especially since the usual morning gold and silver slam down just took place.

The height of absurdity in yesterday’s hearing probably came during the testimony from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), in which the agency’s chief cited the 'benefits' of digital currencies, including anonymity, simple, easy to navigate, lower fees than the conventional financial system, globally accessible, can be used as both a store of value and medium of exchange, security, etc. Yet in listing all of these benefits, FinCEN’s chief was actually trying to make a case 'against' Bitcoin! In her mind, only criminal terrorists want low-fee, secure, globally accessible money. So we can expect more hearings, more regulation, more disclosures. At least, in the Land of the Free. However, on the other side of the world, though, they’re not afraid of Bitcoin.

Following yesterday's good-cop-bad-cop Bitcoin discussion, it is the turn of the Senate's Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs committee to comprehend the benefits of the unregulated cryoto-currwncy and why the fiat-defiers should be crushed (for their own good of course). Law Professors, FinCEN Directors, and Bank commissioners in on corner, and the CEO of BitPay in the other... ding ding, Round 2."The Present and Future Impact Of Virtual Currencies - security and international trade and finance" We can only imagine the vol about to hit BTC prices following yesterday's fun and games...

The Senate Banking Committee’s confirmation hearing for current Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve began with Janet Yellen delivering prepared remarks.  Most observers likely tuned out well before the completion of the 2 ½ hours meeting to decide whether Yellen was worthy to succeed outgoing Chair Ben Bernanke and ascend to the top spot at the Fed. With the ongoing debacle of the Affordable Health Care website handcuffing Democrats, tough questions about QE, ZIRP, the oft talked about Taper and the possibility of reducing the Fed’s gargantuan $4 trillion balance sheet were verboten.  That left Republicans to address the elephant(s) in the room.  Predictably, it took nearly the entire hearing until a Senator from Nebraska offered his views about the damage being done by the various fiscal and monetary machinations undertaken to combat the Great Recession.  What happened, beginning just after the 2 hour point of the meeting, was both remarkable and revealing...

"Beyond Silk Road: Potential Risks, Threats, and Promises of Virtual Currencies" is the title of today's Senate hearing (from Homeland Security) on th eperils of Bitcoin. We are sure the exaggeration and exasperation will run high as Government offers up its Financial Crimes (and missing and exploited children) directors, and the de-centralized unregulated crypto-currency faces them down...

The only numbers that matter today are 16000, 4000 and 1800: those are the Fed's closing targets for the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq and the S&P. Following last night's Chinese euphoria which saw the Shanghai Composite surge by 2.87%, or up 61.4 to just under 2,200 on renewed hopes for Chinese reform by 2020, the Fed's price targets should all be quite easily achievable. And not even the rising home prices in 69 out of 70 cities year over year, and 65 over month - the same as last month, with new nome price inflation at 0.6% overall and 0.8% for the first tier cities, was able to put a dent in the reflationary spirits in the Mainland. Additionally, news that China would join the US and Europe in "adjusting" its GDP calculation method, which would add R&D expensing into the bottom line, and as a result boost the overall number, is, well, helping things. Finally, with today's POMO a rather whopping $3-$4 billion, it is only a matter of time before all three of the previously noted psychological resistances are promptly taken out by the Fed's open markets desk.