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Guest Post: 10 Things I Hate About (You) Twitter Finance





If you find that you are pointing to yourself on 5 or more of the bullet items below... please delete your Twitter account immediately.

 
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Flushing Cash Into The Casino - The Media Stock Swoon Shows That It Works Until It Doesn't





During the most recent quarter debt issuance by US companies reached an all-time high, raising a question as to why companies still need to borrow so much after selling $7 trillion of U.S. debt securities since 2008. This weeks S&P Media index swoon leaves no doubt as to the answer. Companies have not been borrowing to grow; they have been borrowing in order to flush cash into the casino. Charles Ponzi once had a scheme that was not essentially different. Yes, and it worked until it didn’t.

 
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"It's Nuts!" Hedgies Hammered Amid Media Massacre





“People are shooting first and asking questions later...this indiscriminate selling, to me, is just nuts," exclaims on billion-dollar AUM hedge fund CIO as media stocks faced a bloodbath this week. Small (illiquid) doors and large crowds do not mix well as Bloomberg reports, hedge funds own an average 9.7% of the 15 companies in the S&P Media Index - which has tumbled over 8% in 2 days - its biggest loss since 2008. Exuberant return chasing on merger speculation has reversed into panic-selling as Disney, Time Warner Inc., Fox, CBS and Comcast Corp. erased almost $50 billion of value in two days.

 
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There Is Officially No Difference Between Jeb And Hillary, Whose Biggest Donors Are The Same





What many have tacitly known for a long time was finally confirmed overnight when an analysis of Federal Election Commission data by Vocativ and The Daily Beast found that of the 60 or so ultra-rich Americans - aka the mega-donors - who have contributed to both Jeb Bush’s and Hillary Clinton’s federal campaigns, seventeen of those contributors have gone one step further and opened their wallets to fund both Bush’s and Clinton’s 2016 ambitions.

 
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Futures Rebound On Ongoing Dollar Strength; Commodities Rise, China Slides, Greek Banks Continue Plunging





In many ways the overnight session has been a mirror image of yesterday, with the dollar accelerating its Lockhart-commentary driven rise, which curiously has pushed ES higher perhaps as a result of more USDJPY correlation algos being active and various other FX tracking pairs. Indeed, the weak yen is all that mattered in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) rose amid JPY weakness, despite opening initially lower as index heavyweight Fast Retailing (-4.5%) reported a 2nd consecutive monthly decline in Uniqlo sales. Elsewhere in mirror images, China slid 1.7%, undoing about half of yesterday's 3.7% jump, and is now down for 4 of the past 5 days.

 
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Chinese Stocks Tumble In Close Of Trading "Causing Panic", US GDP To Be Revised Higher On Seasonal Adjustments





We start off the overnight wrap up with the usual place, China, where in a mirror image of Wednesday's action, stocks once again started off uneventful, then gradually rose in the afternoon session and meandered near unchanged territory until the last half hour, when out of the blue they tumbled to close near the day's low, some 2.2% below yesterday's closing level.  What caused it?  One possible catalyst came from Reuters which reported that that Chinese banks were investigating their exposure to the stock market via wealth management products and loans backed by stock as collateral. 

 
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The Real Bubble: Average M&A Multiple Hits 16x As First Half Volume Crosses Record $1 Trillion





While China is scrambling to launch a plunge protection team after every other initiative to support its burst stock market bubble has failed, one wonders when the real asset bubble will go pop: that, of course, is the global - but mostly US - merger and acquisition bubble.

 
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Frontrunning: June 26





  • Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless (BBG)
  • China’s Market Selloff Accelerates (WSJ)
  • Any Deal on New Greek Bailout Funds Put Off Until Weekend (WSJ)
  • ECB keeps ELA funding limit for Greece unchanged for third day in a row (Reuters)
  • Impoverished Greek City Stands With Alexis Tsipras (WSJ)
  • Why It Won’t Be a Default If Greece Misses IMF Payment Next Week (BBG)
  • Valeant Makes Takeover Approach to Zoetis (WSJ) - or how Ackman assures himself another good T+3 quarter
  • Obamacare ruling puts Supreme Court on hot seat in U.S. presidential race (Reuters)
 
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Hysterical (Or Historical) Blindness





When money and investing is no longer rewarded by business acumen and prowess - rather it’s “Here’s a boatload of cheap money. Throw as much as you can, as fast as you can, at as many as you can, and see what, if any sticks” - that is when you should be looking for where the lifeboats are hanging. Rather, than hanging around on the poop-deck waiting to see if it’s all about to hit a fan. We guess we’re just back to the old turn a blind eye to anything historical. Remember “It’s different this time.” Nothing to see here, move along, don’t fret, no need for concern. Just remember and repeat three times every time there’s reason for concern when the market drops 200 or 300 points out of the blue only to recover all if not more the next day... “The Fed’s got your back, the Fed’s got your back, The……”

 
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Frontrunning: May 27





  • FIFA Raided by Swiss Authorities in 2018, 2022 World Cup Probe (BBG)
  • Companies Send More Cash Back to Shareholders (WSJ)
  • Time Warner Cable Deal Stirs Debt Concerns (WSJ)
  • Qatar $200 Billion World Cup Under More Scrutiny Amid FIFA Probe (BBG)
  • Philippine, Vietnamese troops play soccer and sing on disputed island (Reuters)
  • The G-7's Problem: Can the World Deal With a Greek Default? (BBG)
  • SocGen Deal for Bache Illustrates Commodity-Trading Woe (WSJ)
  • China’s Naval Abilities Test Asia’s Insecurities (WSJ)
 
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What's Wrong With This Picture





Before today's announcement, Charter had a market cap of $20 billion, less than half of Time Warner Cable's $48 billion. Or shown another way: a company with 6.3 million total subs is buying a company with 15.4 million subscribers.

 
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Frontrunning: May 26





  • Developed-Country Growth Slows, OECD Says (WSJ)
  • Charter Agrees to Buy Time Warner Cable for About $55 Billion (BBG)
  • Dollar hits one-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe (Reuters)
  • IMF Says Yuan No Longer Undervalued Amid Reserve-Status Push (BBG)
  • Hanergy secured $200m loan ahead of solar group stock tumble (FT)
  • Congressional Inaction Threatens NSA Spy Program (WSJ)
  • Germany sees progress on Greece, EU officials to confer on Thursday (Reuters)
  • Hayes ‘motivated by greed’, prosecutor says in Libor case (FT)
  • Whistleblowers Find SEC Rewards Slow and Scarce (WSJ)
 
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Futures In The Red On Europe Jitters Ahead Of Obligatory Low-Volume Levitation





While yesterday most markets were closed and unable to express their concerns at the very strong showing of "anti-austerity" parties in Spain's municipal election from Sunday, then today they have free reign to do just that, and as a result European stocks are broadly lower, alongside the EURUSD which dripped under 1.09 earlier today, with Spanish banks among the worst performers: Shares of Banco Sabadell, Bankia, Caixabank and Popular were down 1.8 to 2.3% earlier this morning, and while the stronger dollar was a gift to both the Nikkei and Europe in early trading, after opening in the green, Spain's IBEX has since slid into the red on concerns of what happens if the Greek anti-status quo contagion finally shifts to the Pyrenees.

 
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