Time Warner

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The Real Bubble: Average M&A Multiple Hits 16x As First Half Volume Crosses Record $1 Trillion





While China is scrambling to launch a plunge protection team after every other initiative to support its burst stock market bubble has failed, one wonders when the real asset bubble will go pop: that, of course, is the global - but mostly US - merger and acquisition bubble.

 
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Frontrunning: June 26





  • Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless (BBG)
  • China’s Market Selloff Accelerates (WSJ)
  • Any Deal on New Greek Bailout Funds Put Off Until Weekend (WSJ)
  • ECB keeps ELA funding limit for Greece unchanged for third day in a row (Reuters)
  • Impoverished Greek City Stands With Alexis Tsipras (WSJ)
  • Why It Won’t Be a Default If Greece Misses IMF Payment Next Week (BBG)
  • Valeant Makes Takeover Approach to Zoetis (WSJ) - or how Ackman assures himself another good T+3 quarter
  • Obamacare ruling puts Supreme Court on hot seat in U.S. presidential race (Reuters)
 
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Hysterical (Or Historical) Blindness





When money and investing is no longer rewarded by business acumen and prowess - rather it’s “Here’s a boatload of cheap money. Throw as much as you can, as fast as you can, at as many as you can, and see what, if any sticks” - that is when you should be looking for where the lifeboats are hanging. Rather, than hanging around on the poop-deck waiting to see if it’s all about to hit a fan. We guess we’re just back to the old turn a blind eye to anything historical. Remember “It’s different this time.” Nothing to see here, move along, don’t fret, no need for concern. Just remember and repeat three times every time there’s reason for concern when the market drops 200 or 300 points out of the blue only to recover all if not more the next day... “The Fed’s got your back, the Fed’s got your back, The……”

 
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Frontrunning: May 27





  • FIFA Raided by Swiss Authorities in 2018, 2022 World Cup Probe (BBG)
  • Companies Send More Cash Back to Shareholders (WSJ)
  • Time Warner Cable Deal Stirs Debt Concerns (WSJ)
  • Qatar $200 Billion World Cup Under More Scrutiny Amid FIFA Probe (BBG)
  • Philippine, Vietnamese troops play soccer and sing on disputed island (Reuters)
  • The G-7's Problem: Can the World Deal With a Greek Default? (BBG)
  • SocGen Deal for Bache Illustrates Commodity-Trading Woe (WSJ)
  • China’s Naval Abilities Test Asia’s Insecurities (WSJ)
 
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What's Wrong With This Picture





Before today's announcement, Charter had a market cap of $20 billion, less than half of Time Warner Cable's $48 billion. Or shown another way: a company with 6.3 million total subs is buying a company with 15.4 million subscribers.

 
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Frontrunning: May 26





  • Developed-Country Growth Slows, OECD Says (WSJ)
  • Charter Agrees to Buy Time Warner Cable for About $55 Billion (BBG)
  • Dollar hits one-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe (Reuters)
  • IMF Says Yuan No Longer Undervalued Amid Reserve-Status Push (BBG)
  • Hanergy secured $200m loan ahead of solar group stock tumble (FT)
  • Congressional Inaction Threatens NSA Spy Program (WSJ)
  • Germany sees progress on Greece, EU officials to confer on Thursday (Reuters)
  • Hayes ‘motivated by greed’, prosecutor says in Libor case (FT)
  • Whistleblowers Find SEC Rewards Slow and Scarce (WSJ)
 
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Futures In The Red On Europe Jitters Ahead Of Obligatory Low-Volume Levitation





While yesterday most markets were closed and unable to express their concerns at the very strong showing of "anti-austerity" parties in Spain's municipal election from Sunday, then today they have free reign to do just that, and as a result European stocks are broadly lower, alongside the EURUSD which dripped under 1.09 earlier today, with Spanish banks among the worst performers: Shares of Banco Sabadell, Bankia, Caixabank and Popular were down 1.8 to 2.3% earlier this morning, and while the stronger dollar was a gift to both the Nikkei and Europe in early trading, after opening in the green, Spain's IBEX has since slid into the red on concerns of what happens if the Greek anti-status quo contagion finally shifts to the Pyrenees.

 
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For Today's Investors: Ignorance Is Not Bliss - It Is Oblivion





“Ignorance is not bliss – it is oblivion. Determined ignorance is the hastiest kind of oblivion.” As investors, we have all been warned. Not by the future, but by the past.

 
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Frontrunning: May 22





  • U.S. vows to continue patrols after China warns spy plane (Reuters)
  • Bank of Japan Chief Cheers On Tokyo’s Surging Stocks (WSJ)
  • Merkel Stamps Out Optimism on Greece After Tsipras Talks (BBG)
  • Greece sees reforms deal with lenders in next 10 days (Reuters)
  • Why Greece’s Syriza party is not sticking to the script on an IMF deal (Channel4)
  • Why Does Putin Care Who Runs a Tiny Balkan Nation? Gas Pipelines (BBG)
  • U.S. Stock-Index Futures Are Little Changed Before Yellen Speech (BBG)
  • German Business Confidence Declines as Risks Cloud Outlook (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 21





  • Once-Unthinkable Criminal Pleas by U.S. Banks Get Investor ‘Meh’ (BBG)
  • The E-Mail That Helped Catch Barclays: ‘ISDAfix Is Manipulated’ (BBG)
  • CFTC Said Preparing ISDAfix Probe Talks in Weeks: Credit Markets (BBG)
  • Islamic State takes control of Syria's Palmyra in westward advance (Reuters)
  • Tensions High as Greece Gets Smallest Aid Rise Yet (BBG)
  • The Rise of the $50,000 Rental (BBG)
  • U.S. says South China Sea reclamations stoke instability (Reuters)
  • First Hanergy Now Goldin: Hong Kong Stocks Drop Like Stones (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 20





  • Clinton aides sometimes blocked release of documents requested under public-records law (WSJ)
  • House Benghazi panel subpoenas former Clinton White House aide (Reuters)
  • Cash Crunch, for Many, Is a Monthly Woe (WSJ)
  • Doubts over Greece add to euro's ECB-driven frailty (Reuters)
  • For Many American States, It's Like the Recession Never Ended (BBG)
  • Japan debt plan needs BOJ to keep rates low for years (Reuters)
  • Euro Continues to Fall; European Bonds, Stocks Broadly Steady (WSJ)
  • Los Angeles gives preliminary approval to $15 minimum wage (Reuters)
 
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Here We Go Again: Verizon To Buy AOL Marking Another Tech Bubble Top





The last time AOL was involved in a mega merger was January 2000, when AOL acquired Time Warner for $182 billion in what was the mega deal of the last tech bubble, creating a $350 billion behemoth. Fast forward 15 years and here is AOL again in yet another period-defining if far, far smaller transaction once again, when moments ago Verizon announced that it would acquire AOL for $50/share, a deal value of $4 .4billion. And with that the golden age of digital (and in many cases robotic) content, has now been top-ticked.

 

 
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Uber Is Now Valued Higher Than 80% Of The S&P: Closing In On General Motors And Ford





Putting Uber's latest valuation in perspective, according to CapIq there were just 95 companies in the S&P500 with a market cap over $50 billion, suggesting Uber which did not exist when Lehman filed for bankruptcy, now has a market capitalization greater than 80% of the S&P. Specifically, at a $50 billion valuation, Uber is more "valuable" than FedEx, Marck, Deutsche Bank, General Dynamics, Nissan, Time Warner, Yahoo, Credit Suisse, Heineken and many other companies.

 
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Frontrunning: May 7





  • Fed’s Yellen: Stock Valuations ‘Generally Are Quite High’ (WSJ)
  • Britain's dead-heat election 'down to the wire' on polling day (Reuters)
  • European Markets Roiled by U.S. Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s Comments (WSJ)
  • Stocks Drop With German Bonds to Extend $2 Trillion Global Loss (BBG)
  • Oil heads toward 2015 highs despite ample supply (Reuters)
  • Wary of bond 'cliff,' Fed plans cautious cuts to portfolio (Reuters)
  • Saudi Arabia mulling land operations on Yemen border (Reuters)
 
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